The future isn't what it used to be

  • Thread starter Thread starter jtbell
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Future
Click For Summary
SUMMARY

The forum discussion centers on the unrealistic predictions made for technological advancements, particularly the absence of flying cars and the complexities of AI in autonomous vehicles. Participants highlight the limitations of futurists who fail to account for human fallibility and the challenges of implementing new technologies, as exemplified by the Boeing MCAS system. The conversation emphasizes that while innovations like jet packs exist, the trajectory of technological progress does not follow a linear path akin to Moore's Law. Ultimately, the consensus is that the future of technology is unpredictable and often falls short of expectations.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of AI applications in transportation
  • Familiarity with the Boeing MCAS system and its implications
  • Knowledge of historical technological advancements in aviation
  • Awareness of the limitations of futurism and predictive modeling
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the current state of AI in autonomous vehicles
  • Explore the implications of the Boeing MCAS system on aviation safety
  • Investigate the history of technological predictions and their accuracy
  • Learn about advancements in personal flight technologies, such as jet packs
USEFUL FOR

This discussion is beneficial for futurists, technology enthusiasts, aviation professionals, and anyone interested in the realistic applications and limitations of emerging technologies.

jtbell
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Homework Helper
2025 Award
Messages
16,028
Reaction score
7,863
Nanobots, ape chauffeurs and flights to Pluto. The predictions for 2020 we got horribly wrong (cnn.com)

And we still don't use flying cars to get to work. :cry:

jetsons.jpg
 
Computer science news on Phys.org
jtbell said:
And we still don't use flying cars to get to work.
I am really upset about that. I hoped that when most people take to flying cars, the traffic on the roads would decrease, and I would finally find space on the roads to practice driving without fifty other cars honking around me. :sad:
 
jtbell said:
And we still don't use flying cars to get to work. :cry:
Can you imagine - today's drivers with an extra dimension to contend with? :nb)
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Likes   Reactions: Rubidium_71, DennisN and 2milehi
Ibix said:
Can you imagine - today's drivers with an extra dimension to contend with?

Leave control of s flying cars to AI it would seem a better application than to ground based autonomous vehicles. GPS provides enough accuracy to define suitable travel corridors and with cares in constant communication with neighbors and no pedestrians to worry about accidents "should be" very rare.
 
Among the reasons why futurists so often get predictions wrong is that those who make such predictions fail to take into account the complexities involved in the outstanding problems which their predictions are said to solve or address. AI predictions are among the best example of this.

This should make us pause among those who are attempting to make predictions for the future 50 years ahead.
 
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: gleem
As far as I know the Boeing MCAS is not an AI application. It does point to the ever present problem of human fallibility and greed and the willingness of corporations to disregard seemingly remote problems (and neglecting the advice of experts) in favor of making a buck. That said however it it also a fact that in the deployment of any new technology there will be problems only realized after its introduction.
 
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: russ_watters
People extrapolate from recent history, a main reason why predictions made 40-50 years ago of rapidly expanding space travel, moonbases etc came from expecting progress in spaceflight to follow a similar pattern as air travel did during its first 50 years, which went from the Wright bros to jets

now everyone expects new technologies to ramp like IT (‘its all like Moore’s law!’) which creates similarly overoptimistic predictions
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: PeroK
  • #10
gleem said:
As far as I know the Boeing MCAS is not an AI application.
This is correct. Maybe even more to the point, commercial airplanes have already been [capable of being] essentially fully autonomous robots for decades. There's really nowhere else for them to go in terms of developing the automation. I think we are unlikely to ever remove or reduce the pilots.
 
  • #11
jtbell said:
The future isn't what it used to be!
... and it never has been
 
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: david2

Similar threads

  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
4K
Replies
10
Views
5K
Replies
4
Views
3K
Replies
46
Views
8K
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
2K
  • · Replies 10 ·
Replies
10
Views
3K
  • · Replies 454 ·
16
Replies
454
Views
35K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
3K
  • · Replies 23 ·
Replies
23
Views
5K