The new leader of China, Xi Jinping

[rootX]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-20322288

Mr Xi led the new Politburo Standing Committee out onto the stage at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, signalling his elevation to the top of China's ruling Communist Party.
...
The new leaders had great responsibilities, Mr Xi said, but their mission was to be united, and to lead the party and the people to make the Chinese nation stronger and more powerful.

No surprise there. But, Xi Jinping doesn't seem to have as much power as the last leader.

 

[aquitaine]

Rumor has it that the rest of the Politburo is stuffed with anti-formist conservatives. If this is anything close to accurate then I think we can safely dispel any ideas of fundamental economic or political reforms as well as China's rise as a whole.

 

[rootX]

I found that article too hard to understand and it's full of ifs:

If reports from the Hong Kong press and China's blogosphere are correct .. If confirmed, long-term investors may have to rethink their core assumption about the future course of China.

But even the BBC analysis was gloomy and uncertain (from OP link):

No-one, not even the self-appointed experts, knows what will happen next

We saw exactly the same process in the old Soviet Union and Eastern Europe in the late 1980s, as Mikhail Gorbachev's policies of glasnost and perestroika took effect.

 

[intelwanderer]

From what I've read, he seems competent enough. However, I can't predict where China will be going in the next decade anymore than I can predict where America will go. Ultimately, it will take time to tell what this new generation will do.

Hopefully-at risk of sounding like a cliched politician-the Sino-American relationship will improve, as I personally think that it will be one of the most important factors in geopolitics, if not the most, in the next decade. For good or for ill, mind you.

No surprise there. But, Xi Jinping doesn't seem to have as much power as the last leader.

That doesn't shock me. I think we are past the days of China having one clear man at the helm(say Mao or Deng or even Hu/Wen), and the trend will continue with time.I don't know... it took a lot of economic problems-and foreign ones(Afghanistan, East Europe, and the Sino-Soviet split combined with Reagan's foreign policy didn't help matters)-for the Soviet Union to go *boom*(before my time). China is experiencing the opposite(even with the anticipated slowdown), so they have no logical reason to change the system of government.

What I see being a problem for China down the road is demographics(aging, and the sex ratio. A whole cohort of unmarried, neglected young males is NOT good for stability, or for that matter foreign relations). I doubt Xi is ignorant of this-so let's see what he does.

 

[Locrian]

Agree about the long term demographics. 4:2:1

Of course, given how weak their social safety net is, the burden may not be nearly as big as it is in western countries.

 

[rootX]

What I see being a problem for China down the road is demographics(aging, and the sex ratio. A whole cohort of unmarried, neglected young males is NOT good for stability, or for that matter foreign relations). I doubt Xi is ignorant of this-so let's see what he does.

Young unemployed males brought down many Arab countries but there were fears of same thing happening in China but it didn't happen. China has strong government and strong military to deal with any future unrest IMO.

Some timeline:
2009: China was worried about unrest because of unemployment in 2009 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7915372.stm)
December 2010: Arab Spring started around December 2010.
March 2011: Many feared of China catching Arab Spring
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12646848
December 2011: China still worried of unrest
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16026607

I believe even during the leader selection, China highlighted unemployment and corruption problems.

This all tells me that China has not only survived the worst time (Arab Spring) but is well equipped to deal with any future unrest.

I can't predict where China will be going in the next decade anymore than I can predict where America will go.

That's same with me

 

[Locrian]

This all tells me that China has not only survived the worst time (Arab Spring) but is well equipped to deal with any future unrest.

Maybe, but some serious demographic problems haven't yet even arrived; their population is aging and will continue to do so through at least 2030.

One child has two parents which each have two grandparents. Six elderly per worker in the not so distant future. (Okay, not quite that extreme, because the policy wasn't perfectly enforced, but still a large impact)

 

[rootX]

Maybe, but some serious demographic problems haven't yet even arrived; their population is aging and will continue to do so through at least 2030.

One child has two parents which each have two grandparents. Six elderly per worker in the not so distant future. (Okay, not quite that extreme, because the policy wasn't perfectly enforced, but still a large impact)

Actually, I wanted to reply to the aging point too. One thing I was looking at if China healthcare system is sound enough to have six elderly per worker? I found this article, http://www.tm.mahidol.ac.th/seameo/2003_34_4/41-3098.pdf, but couldn't really make a sound conclusion. So, I just decided not to talk about aging.

Another thing I also wanted to point that it's my understanding that Chinese parents are supported by their children so government doesn't have to worry about them all by itself. In case of western cultures, parents have to look out for the future by themselves IMO.

Combining my above two opinions, will aging be really a problem speaking on relative scale? I tend to believe that other developed countries have more to worry about aging than China because they have better healthcare and the families are more nuclear than Chinese.

 

[aquitaine]

Actually, I wanted to reply to the aging point too. One thing I was looking at if China healthcare system is sound enough to have six elderly per worker? I found this article, http://www.tm.mahidol.ac.th/seameo/2003_34_4/41-3098.pdf, but couldn't really make a sound conclusion. So, I just decided not to talk about aging.

Another thing I also wanted to point that it's my understanding that Chinese parents are supported by their children so government doesn't have to worry about them all by itself. In case of western cultures, parents have to look out for the future by themselves IMO.

Combining my above two opinions, will aging be really a problem speaking on relative scale? I tend to believe that other developed countries have more to worry about aging than China because they have better healthcare and the families are more nuclear than Chinese.

There's no safety net at all in China. If you can't pay your medical bills straight up, the hospital will just let you die.

 

[Borek]

Another thing I also wanted to point that it's my understanding that Chinese parents are supported by their children so government doesn't have to worry about them all by itself. In case of western cultures, parents have to look out for the future by themselves IMO.

It doesn't matter how the money gets redistributed, it still means 1 person has to support 6.

 

[rootX]

It doesn't matter how the money gets redistributed, it still means 1 person has to support 6.

I disagree. It does matter a lot how the money is getting distributed. If children are supporting his parents rather than just government, the money circulates more hands before it reaches parents. The children contribute to the country when they are earning their money. They have responsibilities that make it harder for them to give up their jobs and go revolt against the government.

 

[Borek]

They have responsibilities that make it harder for them to give up their jobs and go revolt against the government.

Good point. But I was mainly referring to the fact that no matter how things are organized, one has to work their tail off to support that number of people. That's not the way you make the economy grow, as all you can grant is the most basic life support.

 

[wuliheron]

China's future plans are well known and the real question is how this will shake out politically. They're fighting the same battle as other overpopulated countries like Egypt. Already rivers in northern China are running dry at times, within a few years one of the major aquifers for Beijing is expected to run dry, and within twenty years northern China is expected to become another dustbowl. The value of water used for industrial products is 80 times what it is for agriculture so they've been on the world's largest infrastructure building project for the last several decades in order to mitigate the unfolding disaster as much as possible.

With the economy going into a tailspin and even China slowing down it's possibly time for them to switch gears from infrastructure building to consolidating their gains. In their rush to industrialized they polluted a lot of the water they have left and created a lot of other problems. The demands for organizing better will be entirely different from those of building infrastructure and with their new government if they do switch modes it will mean they do so very conservatively which is unsurprising. Whatever they do, the longer they put off the decision the more social unrest the country will experience.

 

[Angry Citizen]

China's future plans are well known and the real question is how this will shake out politically. They're fighting the same battle as other overpopulated countries like Egypt. Already rivers in northern China are running dry at times, within a few years one of the major aquifers for Beijing is expected to run dry, and within twenty years northern China is expected to become another dustbowl. The value of water used for industrial products is 80 times what it is for agriculture so they've been on the world's largest infrastructure building project for the last several decades in order to mitigate the unfolding disaster as much as possible.

I'd like to see sources for this.

 

[wuliheron]

http://www.china.org.cn/video/2011-03/23/content_22202444.htm

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/print/9684

http://www.worldwater.org/data20082009/ch05.pdf

Continuing problems with water shortages are not unique to China, for example, this year Canada signed an agreement to provide water to the US if necessary, while a nervous Mexico asked for reassurances it's water supply would not be cut off by the US.

 

[Astronuc]

Moving into 2013, the Economist sees US-China relations being important to the global economy and politics.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/dail...global-politics-2013-economist-125730406.html

It is expected that Xi will become President in 2013, as he seems to be following in the footsteps of Hu Jintao.

The following information is subject to change.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi-Li_Administration

 

[Astronuc]

China academics warn of "violent revolution" if no political reform
http://news.yahoo.com/china-academics-warn-violent-revolution-no-political-reform-041407704.html

BEIJING (Reuters) - A prominent group of Chinese academics has warned in a bold open letter that the country risks "violent revolution" if the government does not respond to public pressure and allow long-stalled political reforms.

The 73 scholars, including well-known current and retired legal experts at top universities and lawyers, said political reform had not matched the quick pace of economic expansion.

"If reforms to the system urgently needed by Chinese society keep being frustrated and stagnate without progress, then official corruption and dissatisfaction in society will boil up to a crisis point and China will once again miss the opportunity for peaceful reform, and slip into the turbulence and chaos of violent revolution," they wrote.

. . . .

Let's see what Xi's administration accomplishes in the new year.

 

[rootX]

China's 12th FYP:
http://apcoworldwide.com/content/PDFs/Chinas_12th_Five-Year_Plan.pdf

 

[Skrew]

China academics warn of "violent revolution" if no political reform
http://news.yahoo.com/china-academics-warn-violent-revolution-no-political-reform-041407704.html
Let's see what Xi's administration accomplishes in the new year.

How would a violent revolution even take place? The government is in complete control of everything.