UARS satellite re-entry this weekend

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DaveC426913 said:
Opinions on the best site to go for up-to-date info as the time approaches? I keep hitting articles, none have any data or tracking apps.
Tracking sites are overloaded and off-line.
 
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Janus said:
It's hard to say. Every 96 min. the Earth rotates 24°, so at a latitude of say 45°, that works out to a ~1900 km shift per orbit. So you would have to pin the time down pretty tightly to get a position.

Here's the real time track for the satellite:

http://www.n2yo.com/?s=21701

As I post it is just about to cross the Equator in the Pacific.
The tracking site is down!

You people get off of my tracking site!
 
Try Heavens Above.

http://www.heavens-above.com/

You can enter your city and find out when it will be close to you. (Just click the "all" button instead of the "visible passes only" button.)

Or, if you have some sort of program for satellite orbits - an orbit simulator or such - just enter the elsets into your program and you can compute your own tracks.
 
BobG said:
Try Heavens Above.

http://www.heavens-above.com/

You can enter your city and find out when it will be close to you. (Just click the "all" button instead of the "visible passes only" button.)

Or, if you have some sort of program for satellite orbits - an orbit simulator or such - just enter the elsets into your program and you can compute your own tracks.

Well, I was really just looking for up-to-date info on its projected re-entry time and area.
 
lisab said:
A 1-in-3200 chance of being hit by debris? Yikes!

You need a steel umbrella, Evo!

A concrete bunker might work better.
 
BobG said:
Try Heavens Above.

http://www.heavens-above.com/

You can enter your city and find out when it will be close to you. (Just click the "all" button instead of the "visible passes only" button.)

Or, if you have some sort of program for satellite orbits - an orbit simulator or such - just enter the elsets into your program and you can compute your own tracks.
Thanks Bob, looks like 4:37pm if I did it right.
 
DaveC426913 said:
Well, I was really just looking for up-to-date info on its projected re-entry time and area.

2:40PM EST, Rochester, NH... just outside my condo in my parking space.

The insurance company is never going to believe me.

[PLAIN]http://theotherplaceportal.net/files/2010/12/muffin-300x192.jpg
(Src: http://theotherplaceportal.net/blog/the-other-place/car-crushed-by-giant-blue-muffin/" )
 
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DaveC426913 said:
Well, I was really just looking for up-to-date info on its projected re-entry time and area.

It only takes 88 minutes for it to complete an orbit. It's moving about 285 miles a minute. Given how hard it is to predict exactly when the satellite will reenter the atmosphere and the amount of time that passes before observations and an updated elset being available to public websites, those projections won't be terribly accurate. Their projections are more like the time that has the highest probability.
 
This site gives an estimated impact range:

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
 
Janus said:
This site gives an estimated impact range:

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
Thanks, Janus (I guess). That chart shows LOTS of tracks overlap around Maine, PQ, and the Maritimes. That adds up to a lot of hang-time.

Looks like South America gets a free pass, though.
 
Janus said:
This site gives an estimated impact range:

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
To all,

Wouldn't be ironic and hilarious if a big chunk came down on where they located and removed Bin Laden, now THAT would make my day.

Rhody... :devil: :biggrin:
 
BobG said:
Edit: Wow! I just noticed something. If it stays up until tomorrow night, my ex could get hit and I would have to stop making alimony payments.

Bob, she survived you for a few years. Do you think she is scared of a silly satellite hit? :wink:
 
Don't overreact with a "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" scenario...oh...wait
 
Now they're saying that the impact will be between 6pm and 4am EDT, over the US. If true, it should be quite a show as you run for your life. :-p
 
Right, a bit akin to Elinin

FlexGunship said:
Yes, when it bursts into flames as it contact the upper atmosphere you should be able to see it pretty well from outside of your bomb shelter. When it hits your bomb shelter you should be able to see it pretty well from inside your bomb shelter.
 
Just leave Evo in the bomb shelter and drive out of the impact zone right away.
 
turbo said:
Just leave Evo in the bomb shelter and drive out of the impact zone right away.
:frown:
 
Evo said:
it should be quite a show as you run for your life. :-p

I think not running is better - chances of being hit are identical, but you won't die sweaty.
 
Borek said:
I think not running is better - chances of being hit are identical, but you won't die sweaty.
Or with messy hair.
 
The moral of this story, if there is one, is don't push your luck and stay close to Evo in those last critical twenty minutes, and make sure the debris field is by you before venturing outside, only to be http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLKR3GdIK80" with something the size of a golf ball, or eye ball (see link), eck...

Rhody... :bugeye:
 
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It looks like the impact point is Bora Bora OH NOO Mr Bill

Safety tips for Evo from from Mr Bill:

 
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The chances that it will hit anyone is one in 3200 and since there are 7 billion people, the chance that it will hit me is one in 21 trillion. This is the first time that I've been thankful for overpopulation. Meanwhile they keep changing their minds on when and where it will fall. The next thing they say is that they no longer think it's the size of a schoolbus. The size of Texas more likely.
 
Jimmy Snyder said:
The chances that it will hit anyone is one in 3200 and since there are 7 billion people, the chance that it will hit me is one in 21 trillion.

The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot? About 195 million to 1.

Finally found something less likely to happen than winning the lottery!

The odds of being hit by a falling satellite when you have a winning Powerball ticket in your pocket? Probably better than 50%.
 
bobg said:
the odds of being hit by a falling satellite when you have a winning powerball ticket in your pocket? Probably better than 50%.
lol!
 
The last link I posted now estimates re-entry over the Pacific. However, if it holds off for just 15 min more, its right on top of me!
 
The local news reports that we may not only be able to see the fireball pass over, we may be able to hear it!

Right now they are saying to look for it passing over Oregon about 9:20 PM, Pacific Time.
 
It's raining here - nothing to see.
 
Ivan Seeking said:
we may not only be able to see the fireball pass over, we may be able to hear it!
Now that would be cool Ivan, what would you hear, double, triple sonic booms ?

Rhody...
 
I doubt it will really amount to much, but I'll try to get a video and post it if I do.

Tsu is out of town and I just called to let her know. She is SOOOOOOOOOO mad that she isn't here!
 

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