I Variation of the Liar's Paradox

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The discussion revolves around a variation of the Liar's Paradox, specifically the statement "Statistics are wrong 90% of the time," which appears self-refuting. Participants explore the implications of this claim, noting that if it is true, it must also be false, creating a paradox. However, some argue that the lack of certainty (less than 100%) allows for the possibility of the statement being true without creating a true paradox. The conversation also touches on the statement "Statistics are wrong 50% of the time," which is viewed as less paradoxical due to its even odds. Ultimately, the consensus suggests that the paradox dissolves when considering the nature of probability and truth.
rmberwin
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A variation of the Liar's Paradox occurred to me: "Statistics are wrong 90% of the time". This statement seems to refute itself, but does so in a less straightforward way. I would appreciate any insights! And what about, "Statistics are wrong 50% of the time"? (Even odds.)
 
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rmberwin said:
A variation of the Liar's Paradox occurred to me: "Statistics are wrong 90% of the time". This statement seems to refutes itself, but does so in a less straightforward way. I would appreciate any insights! And what about the statement, "Statistics are wrong 50% of the time"? (Even odds.)
This makes utterly no sense to me.
 
rmberwin said:
A variation of the Liar's Paradox occurred to me: "Statistics are wrong 90% of the time". This statement seems to refutes itself, but does so in a less straightforward way. I would appreciate any insights! And what about the statement, "Statistics are wrong 50% of the time"? (Even odds.)
Anything less than a certainty of 100% removes the paradox. It leaves the possibility that the statement is true.
 
FactChecker said:
Anything less than a certainty of 100% removes the paradox. It leaves the possibility that the statement is true.
But if the statement is true, then it is probably (90%) false. That is the paradox.
 
rmberwin said:
But if the statement is true, then it is probably (90%) false. That is the paradox.
"Probably" is not the same as definitely. That is why it is not a paradox.
I could say that I am 26,823 days old and probably be wrong. But maybe not.
 
rmberwin said:
But if the statement is true, then it is probably (90%) false. That is the paradox.
If the statement is true, then it is one of the 10% of true statements. No paradox.
 
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Thread 'A variant of the Monty Hall problem'

There is a nice little variation of the problem. The host says, after you have chosen the door, that you can change your guess, but to sweeten the deal, he says you can choose the two other doors, if you wish. This proposition is a no brainer, however before you are quick enough to accept it, the host opens one of the two doors and it is empty. In this version you really want to change your pick, but at the same time ask yourself is the host impartial and does that change anything. The host...
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