I Variation of the Liar's Paradox

AI Thread Summary
The discussion revolves around a variation of the Liar's Paradox, specifically the statement "Statistics are wrong 90% of the time," which appears self-refuting. Participants explore the implications of this claim, noting that if it is true, it must also be false, creating a paradox. However, some argue that the lack of certainty (less than 100%) allows for the possibility of the statement being true without creating a true paradox. The conversation also touches on the statement "Statistics are wrong 50% of the time," which is viewed as less paradoxical due to its even odds. Ultimately, the consensus suggests that the paradox dissolves when considering the nature of probability and truth.
rmberwin
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A variation of the Liar's Paradox occurred to me: "Statistics are wrong 90% of the time". This statement seems to refute itself, but does so in a less straightforward way. I would appreciate any insights! And what about, "Statistics are wrong 50% of the time"? (Even odds.)
 
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rmberwin said:
A variation of the Liar's Paradox occurred to me: "Statistics are wrong 90% of the time". This statement seems to refutes itself, but does so in a less straightforward way. I would appreciate any insights! And what about the statement, "Statistics are wrong 50% of the time"? (Even odds.)
This makes utterly no sense to me.
 
rmberwin said:
A variation of the Liar's Paradox occurred to me: "Statistics are wrong 90% of the time". This statement seems to refutes itself, but does so in a less straightforward way. I would appreciate any insights! And what about the statement, "Statistics are wrong 50% of the time"? (Even odds.)
Anything less than a certainty of 100% removes the paradox. It leaves the possibility that the statement is true.
 
FactChecker said:
Anything less than a certainty of 100% removes the paradox. It leaves the possibility that the statement is true.
But if the statement is true, then it is probably (90%) false. That is the paradox.
 
rmberwin said:
But if the statement is true, then it is probably (90%) false. That is the paradox.
"Probably" is not the same as definitely. That is why it is not a paradox.
I could say that I am 26,823 days old and probably be wrong. But maybe not.
 
rmberwin said:
But if the statement is true, then it is probably (90%) false. That is the paradox.
If the statement is true, then it is one of the 10% of true statements. No paradox.
 
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