Various chances of 5 players catching balls

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    Balls Chances
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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the probabilities related to five players catching balls thrown into the air, with specific probabilities assigned to each player. Participants seek to determine the chances of at least one player catching a ball, no players catching a ball, two or more players catching a ball, and only one player catching a ball. The conversation includes mathematical reasoning and attempts to clarify the application of probability concepts.

Discussion Character

  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Homework-related
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents the probabilities for each player catching a ball and requests calculations for various scenarios.
  • Another participant suggests using the Kolmogorov Axioms to find the probability of at least one player catching a ball.
  • A participant expresses confusion about the notation used in probability expressions and seeks clarification on how to apply formulas for more than two variables.
  • Some participants propose starting with the calculation of the probability that no one catches a ball as a simpler first step.
  • One participant attempts to calculate the probability that no one catches a ball and shares their result, questioning its correctness.
  • Another participant reflects on a hypothetical scenario with two players to illustrate their understanding of the probability calculations.
  • There is a request for confirmation on the calculations made regarding the probabilities of at least one player catching a ball and no players catching a ball.
  • Participants express uncertainty about how to approach the calculations for the scenarios of two or more players catching a ball and only one player catching a ball.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the approach to calculate the probability that no one catches a ball and the probability that at least one player catches a ball, but there is no consensus on how to proceed with the calculations for the other scenarios. Uncertainty remains regarding the correct application of probability formulas.

Contextual Notes

Participants express confusion over the application of probability formulas, particularly when extending calculations beyond two variables. There are also varying interpretations of the results obtained, indicating potential misunderstandings in the calculations.

Back<2steps
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There are 5 players and me.
If I throw numerous balls in the air and the chances of each individual player catching a ball is as follows:
player 1: 13%
player 2: 16%
player 3: 14%
player 4: 15%
player 5: 18%

Please show working:
1) What is the chance that at least one player catches a ball?
2) Chance that no one catches a ball?
3) Chance that two or more players catch a ball?
4) Chance that only one player catches a ball?

Thanks in advance.
 
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Hey Back<2steps.

For the first one, if P1, P2, P3, P4, and P5 is probability of those catching a ball, then P(P1 v P2 v P3 v P4 v P5) is the probability of at least one catching a ball. Can you use the Kolmogorov Axioms to get this probability?
 
Hi,

Thanks for your reply.

I have looked up Kolmogorov Axioms, but I am unclear on what you are telling me. I would be grateful if you would show the working for me.

I am also unclear on what 'P' and 'v' is in 'P(P1 v P2 v P3 v P4 v P5)'.

Are you saying I should use P(AuB)=P(A)+P(B)-P(AnB) ?
I don't understand how to use this formula on more than 2 variables.

Sorry for my lack of knowledge. Appreciate any help.
 
Try doing 2) first; it's the easiest. You should then be able to answer 1) using your result from 2).
 
Was kind of hoping for a worked through example rather than advice as to which one to attempt first... :)

As you do not wish to answer for me, maybe you would be kind enough to tell me if the following is correct:
Here is my attempt at 2:
(1-0.13)*(1-0.16)*(1-0.14)*(1-0.15)*(1-0.18) = 43% ??
Therefore 1)=57%

??

Thanks
 
Back<2steps said:
Was kind of hoping for a worked through example rather than advice as to which one to attempt first... :)

As you do not wish to answer for me, maybe you would be kind enough to tell me if the following is correct:
Here is my attempt at 2:
(1-0.13)*(1-0.16)*(1-0.14)*(1-0.15)*(1-0.18) = 43% ??
Therefore 1)=57%

??

Thanks

Think about this: Instead, we have two players and both of them have a 50% chance of catching the ball, so the chance of either of them catching it should be 75%, right? But if we used your method we get
(1-0.5)*(1-0.5) = 25%
But 25% is what is left over from the 75%, hence (this isn't a proof, but we know we're on the right track) 25% is the chance of neither player catching the ball. This is why awkward mentioned you should answer 2) first.

So if you haven't already been able to put these ideas together to answer 1), the answer to my question should be

1 - (1-0.5)*(1-0.5) = 75%
 
So this is correct for 'chance that no one catches ball':
((1-0.13)*(1-0.16)*(1-0.14)*(1-0.15)*(1-0.18)) = 43.80% ??

And Chance of at least one player catching ball = 1-((1-0.13)*(1-0.16)*(1-0.14)*(1-0.15)*(1-0.18)) = 56.20%Still have no clue how to begin on 3) Chance that two or more players catch a ball. & 4) Chance that only one player catches a ball?
Is this correct?
If so thank you very much.Still have no clue how to begin on 3) Chance that two or more players catch a ball, & 4) Chance that only one player catches a ball?
 
Last edited:

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