Building a better ranking system (probability)

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SUMMARY

This discussion centers on calculating the probability that a randomly chosen player will outperform a highly skilled player, referred to as player b, across four games with specified winning percentages. Player b has exceptional win rates: 100% in Game 1, 96% in Game 2, 87% in Game 3, and 67% in Game 4. The conversation also introduces the concept of draws, complicating the probability calculations. A clear definition of "more skill" is necessary to establish criteria for comparison between player b and the random player.

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  • Understanding of probability theory
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  • Ability to interpret win/draw percentages
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Mathematicians, game developers, statisticians, and anyone interested in analyzing player performance and probabilities in competitive gaming environments.

ibn_sina76
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Suppose we have four games and the probability that a player will win the game are as follows:

Game 1: 71%
Game 2: 55%
Game 3: 58%
Game 4: 16%

Suppose player b won these games with the following percentages of time:
Game 1: 100%
Game 2: 96%
Game 3: 87%
Game 4: 67%

In other words, he's a very good player. What is the probability that a player chosen at random will play these games with more skill than player b? A random player will play these games with the same skill as the average player.

I really have no idea where to begin on solving this problem. Any help would be appreciated. For the even more advanced, we can add in draws:Game 1: 71%, draw 9%
Game 2: 55%, draw 8%
Game 3: 58%, draw 6%
Game 4: 16%, draw 3%

Player b:
Game 1: 100% wins, 0% draws
Game 2: 96% wins, 3% draws
Game 3: 87% wins, 3% draws
lGame 4: 67% wins, 6% draws
 
Last edited:
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ibn_sina76 said:
What is the probability that a player chosen at random will play these games with more skill than player b?

You must specify what "play these game with more skill means". Are you referring to a contest where the skilled player and the randomly chosen player play each of the 4 games once. What counts as "more skill"? Suppose the randomly chosen player wins 2 games and the skilled player only wins game 1. Do we say the randomly chosen player had "more skill" than the skilled player?
 

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