What do we do when the oil runs low

[wolram]

I guess this may have been discused before, but may be a review might be needed, for a start I have 2070 as the time when oil will not be easily accesable, so what do we do do when oil is so expensive no one can afford it, do we go down the path of mass transport? what about plastic it will be a vaued commodity, something we can hardly do without.
Whats your thinking, do you agree with the date stated?

 

[Borek]

I consider myself lucky to be long dead by then.

 

[OmCheeto]

I consider myself lucky to be long dead by then.

That's my answer!

As for those that are not dead, ...
...
...
...
I've got nothing.

{Except for; "My sincerest condolences. And thanks all the fish."}

 

[strangerep]

I guess this may have been discused before, but may be a review might be needed, for a start I have 2070 as the time when oil will not be easily accesable, so what do we do do when oil is so expensive no one can afford it, do we go down the path of mass transport? what about plastic it will be a vaued commodity, something we can hardly do without.
Whats your thinking, do you agree with the date stated?

Carefully study the lyrics of the song When the River Runs Dry.

Also:

[...] conflict will ensue to determine who controls the wealth, or its equivalent.

 

[pinball1970]

50 years? Gosh, what Scientific advances would have been made by then? Sustainable energy will be common place so we will not need nor will we want to use fossil fuel again.
Edit, by then cosmologists will have come to the conclusion that the universe is most likely flat.

 

[russ_watters]

Oil will never go away completely, it will just get more and more scarce and expensive. And as it does there will be spikes and plateaus and even a few drops along the way as the economics of production drive new methods of production that open-up new sources. The price spikes and rise of fracking in the late 2000s shows how that will go. And it may take many more decades before the price is high enough to be truly problematic, as there are known production methods that have vast capacities without especially burdensome costs. That includes tar-sand oil and coal conversion to oil, and there are probably others.

On the consumption side, economics and technical constraints will also combine to determine in what order the different sectors get off oil. It appears to me that cars and light/short-haul trucks will be first, relatively painlessly, in the next few decades. It will also disappear from electrical production relatively easily. Long-haul trucking, ships and airplanes will be the problematic ones, but I forsee it being many decades before it becomes a significant problem. Plastics, I'm not worried about at all. Many are recyclable, and beyond that many things that are currently made from plastic would be better quality if made from metal anyway.

In the late 2000s I was significantly concerned about Peak Oil, but for better or worse, it turns out to have been very wrong. So it's not something I think about anymore - and it has disappeared from the news, and is little-discussed on the internet anymore (websites dedicated to it have shut down for lack of traffic/value).

 

[WWGD]

I consider myself lucky to be long dead by then.

Yes. Change the question to : What do _they do. Edit: My question is whether oil is still being "created" by buried fossils.

 

[gleem]

We still are pumping oil like we have no end to those reserves and we are suppose to have coal for another hundred years. Major energy companies are starting projects looking into renewable sources like hydrogen. There is some hope of making more complex molecules from CO2 using a process called electrosynthesis using electricity and catalysis'. However by 2050 if every thing goes as predicted we should have gotten the message that fossil fuel have been a problem and well underway to replacing their use.

 

[chemisttree]

I’m not sure you can consider hydrogen a fuel source. It should be thought of as an energy storage medium like a battery since there aren’t any terrestrial sources that can be mined.

 

[WWGD]

Is new oil somehow being still created as a result of the death of animals, albeit at a glacial pace?

 

[BWV]

Is new oil somehow being still created as a result of the death of animals, albeit at a glacial pace?

Oil primarily (or entirely?) comes from anerobic decomposition of aquatic life, primarily plankton and algae

 

[BWV]

Oil in developed countries is entirely a transportation fuel which can be replaced by EVs over several decades. Still need an electricity source, but do not need petroleum.

 

[russ_watters]

Is new oil somehow being still created as a result of the death of animals, albeit at a glacial pace?

Yes, but much, much slower than "galacial."

 

[chemisttree]

Oil in developed countries is entirely a transportation fuel which can be replaced by EVs over several decades. Still need an electricity source, but do not need petroleum.

Where do you get this stuff? Do not need petroleum?

 

[WWGD]

Yes, but much, much slower than "galacial."

And consumed at a much higher rate, to understate.

 

[russ_watters]

Oil in developed countries is entirely a transportation fuel which can be replaced by EVs over several decades. Still need an electricity source, but do not need petroleum.

Ehh, can't go that far. The transition for cars will be relatively painless, but ships, long haul trucks and trains will be difficult and planes will be a really, really big problem.

 

[BWV]

Ehh, can't go that far. The transition for cars will be relatively painless, but ships, long haul trucks and trains will be difficult and planes will be a really, really big problem.

EV trucks and trains are solvable in the 50-70 year time frame, planes more difficult, but jet fuel is about 8% of US petroleum use. Personal cars are about 70% of petroleum consumption.

(see https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php)

Petrochemical feedstocks and most other uses on the list above can be replaced by natural gas

 

[Borek]

EV trucks and trains are solvable in the 50-70 year time frame

Judging by predictions from the last millenium we already have them, together with colonies on most planets and cancer cure.

 

[256bits]

Ehh, can't go that far. The transition for cars will be relatively painless, but ships, long haul trucks and trains will be difficult and planes will be a really, really big problem.

Asphalt, shingles, Earth moving equipment, farm machinery, ...
Sure we could all have concrete roads but then making concrete is energy demanding.
Cedar shingles are more expensive so that puts the initial price of most homes up, - that there is enough cedar is another question, which then means cutting down forests.
I don't see stringing high voltage electrical lines to remote areas, for temporary use as being economic or practical. And if one wants to produce electricity locally with generators, then the generators will run on a fuel.

Farmers working the land depend upon the weather - and one wants to work the land when the weather is good, not "waste" the good hours charging your tractor. Or we could go back to horses and thrashing the grain by hand, moving the population back from the cities to the rural.

Certainly a high energy dense fuel is needed is certain areas of the economy, and at a practical price.

 

[BWV]

Cedar is a renewable resource and a carbon sink, so yes can use as much as we like

current battery tech limits large vehicles but that is a solvable problem over a 50 year time frame. Additionally opportunities exist to replace large manned agriculture or industrial vehicles with small autonomous ones.

bitumin for asphault also occurs naturally so does not necessarily have to be extracted from refining crude, but this may not be economical. Roads in TX are cement for the most part as they hold up better in high temperatures, also reflects sunlight reducing the urban heat problem

 

[pinball1970]

Judging by predictions from the last millenium we already have them, together with colonies on most planets and cancer cure.

Glass half empty?
We don't have colonies but have probes on Mars and asteroids.
Not all cars are EV but we have some EV (check out the Nissan leaf) and hybrids
No 'cure' for all cancers but 5 year survival rates compared to the 60s and 70s are vastly improved.

 

[BWV]

No economic reason for humans in space so not a relevant comparison

 

[chemisttree]

Cedar is a renewable resource and a carbon sink, so yes can use as much as we like

current battery tech limits large vehicles but that is a solvable problem over a 50 year time frame. Additionally opportunities exist to replace large manned agriculture or industrial vehicles with small autonomous ones.

bitumin for asphault also occurs naturally so does not necessarily have to be extracted from refining crude, but this may not be economical. Roads in TX are cement for the most part as they hold up better in high temperatures, also reflects sunlight reducing the urban heat problem

Not the Texas where I live. Almost all of the roads in Texas are asphalt. Concrete is much more expensive than asphalt.

 

[BWV]

Not the Texas where I live. Almost all of the roads in Texas are asphalt. Concrete is much more expensive than asphalt.

in Houston and Dallas they are primarily concrete

 

[wolram]

Judging by predictions from the last millenium we already have them, together with colonies on most planets and cancer cure.

Yes some people think science can do more than it is able to, heck we were supposed to have hover cars by now.

 

[russ_watters]

EV trucks and trains are solvable in the 50-70 year time frame, planes more difficult, but jet fuel is about 8% of US petroleum use. Personal cars are about 70% of petroleum consumption.

(see https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php)

Petrochemical feedstocks and most other uses on the list above can be replaced by natural gas

In that link I'm seeing 69% is all forms of transportation. It lists "finished motor gasoline" as 45% -- that would be mostly cars, plus a small percentage of small tools (lawnmowers, etc).

Trains are certainly solvable, it just means building a lot of infrastructure to electrify them. Long haul trucks and ships I don't think it is likely to become feasible to make them electric due to the amount of batteries they would need to carry. There are theoretical and practical limits to battery technology.

 

[Bandersnatch]

Long haul trucks and ships I don't think it is likely to become feasible to make them electric due to the amount of batteries they would need to carry.

Ammonia fuel?

 

[russ_watters]

Asphalt, shingles, Earth moving equipment, farm machinery, ...
Sure we could all have concrete roads but then making concrete is energy demanding.

If we make our cars and light trucks electric it cuts the demand for oil by half, providing more time for a transition for other industries. That reduces my concern quite a bit.

I don't see stringing high voltage electrical lines to remote areas, for temporary use as being economic or practical. And if one wants to produce electricity locally with generators, then the generators will run on a fuel.

I'm not sure what you mean exactly -- in most developed countries I'm aware of, governments require grid electricity be provided to just about everyone in permanently occupied houses/buildings.

Certainly a high energy dense fuel is needed is certain areas of the economy, and at a practical price.

Agreed.

 

[russ_watters]

Ammonia fuel?

Maybe. Ammonia is nasty stuff though.

 

[jack action]

You all know that, as of today's technology, piston and turbine engines can run on vegetable oil or alcohol, right?

There is also such a thing as Bioplastic.

Things may cost a bit more in a future without - or more accurately - less oil, but I think it will be compensated with less waste. (Do we really need all that crap we manufacture and useless travel?)

 

[BWV]

and if we are just talking about oil, don't forget just about any petrochemical or a close substitute can be made from natural gas

 

[OmCheeto]

... useless travel?)

Now there's a number I've been looking for, for quite some time.

Not so much for business peeps, but more for me and the average joe.

According to my very bad maths, only about 1/3 of gasoline consumption is used to get back and forth to work. The other 2/3, is used, afaict, for fun.

 

[Dragrath]

and if we are just talking about oil, don't forget just about any petrochemical or a close substitute can be made from natural gas

Though notably any such reaction is going to take energy so it would function more or less as a type of energy storage

 

[BWV]

Though notably any such reaction is going to take energy so it would function more or less as a type of energy storage

Not necessarily, US petrochem companies now dominate Ethylene production as they have a competitive advantage using cheaper NGLs as a feedstock vs petroleum. For energy storage, the liquification cost of LNG is $1.5-2 /million BTU making it competitive as a replacement for coal

 

[Dragrath]

Not necessarily, US petrochem companies now dominate Ethylene production as they have a competitive advantage using cheaper NGLs as a feedstock vs petroleum. The liquification cost of LNG is $1.5-2 /million BTU

Ah I had been thinking in the context of the hypothetical far future i.e. converting CO2 back into hydrocarbons, Natural gas is already storing chemical energy originally produced via photosynthesis. The reactions to produce various hydrocarbons and sugars require the absorption of energy which plants accomplish using sunlight.

There is no way to make that from CO2, whether by the aerobic process using water as the election donor or some other molecule/catalyst without spending energy. Microbes can get that energy from many sources such as reducing metals or other chemical states present in the environment(chemosynthesis), or by using a source such as sunlight(photosynthesis) etc. as the main processes Earth life uses to initually capture energy. Basically one idea is to using carbon neutral energy sources you could recreate hydrocarbons faster than plants can sequester it naturally.