News What impact will a possible war with North Korea have on American troops?

[turbo]

Yes: A lot is made of the number of soldiers in North Korea's army, but numbers really mean very little in the modern age of warfare. The primary risk in a war is for the soldiers of the North Korean army, who could literally die by the hundreds of thousands if the war develops slowly. Counterintuitively, if the South (and US) are able to mobilize a proper army, they can simply drive through North Korea unopposed and take down the government, all but ignoring the North Korean infantry. If the South (and US) can't mobilize a proper army, the North will have an opportunity to engage with their infantry. They will succeed only in getting themselves killed by the hundreds of thousands, only slightly delaying their defeat.

At least the rations allocated to the NK army could be diverted to the citizens. I hate be ghoulish about this, but the NK citizens have suffered severe deprivation so that the glorious leader could have a huge standing army.

 

[zomgwtf]

Different how, that is relevant?

Of course it's relevant you're saying that maybe China will pull a good old let North Korea get it's but kicked and the swoop into save the day just like back in the good ole' days. I'm saying the situation is different in both countries and I have high doubts that this will be the case. The most important difference has to do specifically with China and the image it is trying to create for itself. Back in those good ole' days they had Mao Zedong heading up things. Are you going to honestly ask 'how' China is different now days relative to being under his leadership?

Name one such time?

Other than the time I had already listed? (2005)
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/30/world/asia/30iht-oil.3334398.html?_r=1 October 2006

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOOkWZ_b4TEY (2009)

There was also a case of this happening back in 2003 but my wireless is being kinda screwy so maybe I'll post it later tonight.

 

[Proton Soup]

Hmm I'm not sure I'm following where this came from. If it's from what I said about 'clean up' I meant after a potential war in Korea.

EDIT: If it's about the 'naval students' part then first I'll add that this is just something I came across online and have been unable to find in anyother source (it was posted in someones comment on a news article and I can't find the comment now haha). Second even if it's true that they were naval students participating in some type of naval training the torpedo found had North Korean markings and it is conclusive that it came from a North Korean submarine. (based on the markings etc.) Unless of course it's just one big conspiracy: maybe that torpedo was there from years ago during the last naval battles and they couldn't tell...

for something that causes so much damage, it seems remarkably intact

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-korea-ship-sink-pictures,0,5983865.photogallery

 

[zomgwtf]

At least the rations allocated to the NK army could be diverted to the citizens. I hate be ghoulish about this, but the NK citizens have suffered severe deprivation so that the glorious leader could have a huge standing army.

If you look at the link of crazy things Kim has done during his dictatorship you will notice that there are plenty more crazy things that could instead be diverted to the people. I.e buying 10s of millions of dollars worth in just Mercedes? (Not including any other cars)... He has all his rice checked to ensure it's precisely the same size by a team of females... I doubt he gives the rice discarded back to the citizens. He spends all this money while the people live there in horrible conditions for around 900$ a year.

 

[russ_watters]

oh really? so it's possible this was just a training accident?

Not unless they were practice-firing North Korean torpedoes, no.

for something that causes so much damage, it seems remarkably intact...

That looks intact to you? Really?

Are you being serious here or are you just playing games? Do you have any actual reason to believe something other than the reported cause and could you specify what, exactly it is that you believe?

 

[zomgwtf]

for something that causes so much damage, it seems remarkably intact

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-korea-ship-sink-pictures,0,5983865.photogallery

Relative to what? A non-exploded torpedo? Great job, you make a fine detective. First of all this is all the parts that were scavenged, by a highly knowledgeable team of personell including a few people from my own country (Canada) who also concluded this was a North Korean torpedo which had recently exploded.

Second of all your claim is rediculous. Comparing a torpedo which has already exploded to a non-exploded torpedo means nothing, find me some images of other torpedos post explosion and after their parts have been scavenged and put in proper places etc.

 

[Proton Soup]

Not unless they were practice-firing North Korean torpedoes, no. That looks intact to you? Really?

Are you being serious here or are you just playing games? Do you have any actual reason to believe something other than the reported cause and could you specify what, exactly it is that you believe?

no, I'm not playing games. it just surprises me is all. not really looking for an argument here.

 

[mheslep]

Of course it's relevant you're saying that maybe China will pull a good old let North Korea get it's but kicked and the swoop into save the day just like back in the good ole' days. I'm saying the situation is different in both countries and I have high doubts that this will be the case. The most important difference has to do specifically with China and the image it is trying to create for itself.

Which is?

Back in those good ole' days they had Mao Zedong heading up things. Are you going to honestly ask 'how' China is different now days relative to being under his leadership?

I didn't simply ask how China is different between now and 1949. I asked how it is different that is relevant to the situation at hand with N. Korea.

Other than the time I had already listed? (2005)

Sorry, missed that.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/30/world/asia/30iht-oil.3334398.html?_r=1 October 2006

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOOkWZ_b4TEY (2009)

Yes thanks, I'd heard of those announcements; though I've never seen if they actually carried through. After all, there is no CNN-China that can report "the Beijing government never actually suspended oil shipments to North Korea as had been announced"

Do you think that this characterization in Bloomberg:

China agreed for the first time to punish senior North Korean government officials for defying United Nations resolutions barring nuclear and missile tests, China’s deputy ambassador said.

and

Although China has long protected the North against outside pressure, analysts said the nuclear test surprised and angered the Chinese leadership.

after all of the years of previous UN sanctions against N.K, supports your statement that "China has shown time and again" it will act against N.K.'s interests? Also, I'd like to see that China actually followed through, though I expect that will be (much) harder to verify.

 

[Argentum Vulpes]

for something that causes so much damage, it seems remarkably intact

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-korea-ship-sink-pictures,0,5983865.photogallery

Of course the back end of the torpedo is going to be mostly intact. It is the nature of the weapon. A torpedo kill is done with a shaped charge, it has to slice through several meters of steel hull to make a hole in a ship. The weapon designers do not need to waste energy on destroying the weapon.

On a converse note a missile relies on high speed shrapnel to kill a plane. Mostly because the amount of damage needed to be done to down aircraft is relatively light. The lighter the plane the better for all performance aspects. Where as a warship if the thing is as big as a city, well just put some more defenses on it, give it a thicker hide, and put a bigger power plant in it.

 

[Mu naught]

Of course the back end of the torpedo is going to be mostly intact. It is the nature of the weapon. A torpedo kill is done with a shaped charge, it has to slice through several meters of steel hull to make a hole in a ship. The weapon designers do not need to waste energy on destroying the weapon.

On a converse note a missile relies on high speed shrapnel to kill a plane. Mostly because the amount of damage needed to be done to down aircraft is relatively light. The lighter the plane the better for all performance aspects. Where as a warship if the thing is as big as a city, well just put some more defenses on it, give it a thicker hide, and put a bigger power plant in it.

I'm pretty sure no ship ever built has a hull "several meters" thick. Do you know how thick a meter is?

 

[Argentum Vulpes]

I'm pretty sure no ship ever built has a hull "several meters" thick. Do you know how thick a meter is?

Sorry I was in a hurry to get this post up before dinner and misspoke. I meant to say several inches thick. But it still dose not take from the fact that 10+ inches of homogeneous cold rolled steel takes a tremendous amount of energy to punch through.

And yes a meter is approximately 3 feet.

 

[russ_watters]

Actually, that type of torpedo isn't designed to impact the hull and doesn't have a shaped-charge. In order to make it more compact, it uses a completely different principle to destroy a ship:

The torpedo steers itself directly under the ship, then explodes using a proximity fuse. The blast of the explosion essentially creates a large bubble under the ship, which causes the ship to snap in half under its own weight...exactly what happened to this ship. Example:

Most of the descriptions on the web seem to me to be a little inaccurate, but this one is close:

In examining Cheonan’s hull, of note was the absence of heat exposure or a hole of the sort normally caused by contact explosives. In other words, the lethal blow was delivered by a non-contact explosion occurring underneath the ship, generating a powerful shock wave and high-pressure gas bubble called a “bubble jet.” This bubble jet caused the ship repeatedly to rise and fall, until it snapped in two.

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=37067



However, though not a shaped-charge, the warhead is cylindrical, not spherical and the detonator would be in the middle, so the blast goes outward in a cylindrical pattern. Either way, it is often surprising what survives such an explosion.

 

[Borg]

See...

USS Cole: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing
USS Stark: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Stark_(FFG-31 )

I am far from pro Iran but, I would also like to add this for fairness...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655"

 

[chrisjones92]

This whole scenario reminds me of the cold war, two conflicting ideologies squaring up to each other within one area. When this comes to a head i get the feeling it will become yet another proxy war.

 

[russ_watters]

I am far from pro Iran but, I would also like to add this for fairness...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655"

There is a clear moral difference between a killing done by accident and one done on purpose, so that example does not belong in the presence of the other two [three].

 

[cristo]

Presumably, you are talking about the Iraq war. I don't think there is a better word to describe what happened to the Iraqi military than "stomped".

I was thinking more of Vietnam, actually. Ok so you perhaps didn't enter that war in as cocky a way as the post I replied to was being (in fact, you really got slowly dragged into it), but I don't think Americans would have expected to lose and to fail the mission. I would have thought that history would warn against the "I've got the biggest army therefore I can defeat anyone" attitude.

 

[Pattonias]

It seems that fact that we try and "win the hearts and minds" is the real reason wars are extended as they are. We aren't just trying to win the war. We have already won the conventional war. We are taking a hand at nation building which is an unproven science. The only reason it appears to have worked after WW2 is that the world was war weary and the nations that were rebuilt were totally devastated and severely depopulated.

We can't fight wars as they were fought back then and still hold up in the court of public opinion.

 

[Pattonias]

If you would like a peek at what is going on in North Korea right now, and the kind of messages Kim sends to his people; you can take a look http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm"

This is the real deal.

 

[Borg]

There is a clear moral difference between a killing done by accident and one done on purpose, so that example does not belong in the presence of the other two [three].

I did hesitate about posting that. However, the US diliberately shot at what they thought was an Iranian fighter. The accident was only in target identification, which ended up having much greater consequences. Granted, a fighter is not a naval vessel but, the death toll ended up being significant.

 

[mheslep]

There is a clear moral difference between a killing done by accident and one done on purpose, so that example does not belong in the presence of the other two [three].

Yes, though the two examples you listed had no connection to Iran, which was the original hypothetical. Also the Stark attack was very likely a mistake on the part the Iraqi pilot, mistaking the Stark for another vessel.

 

[zomgwtf]

From the site that Pattonias posted:

The European Regional Headquarters of the Pan-national Alliance for Korea's Reunification and the Society for Cooperation among Koreans in Germany in a joint statement on May 21 accused the south Korean puppet clique of distorting the truth about the sinking of a warship of its navy.

http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm

Did this really occur on May 20-25th? I've heard of some countries (Mostly China) being skeptical about the attack but not on this kind of level. Reading this it's pretty mind-boggling how simple it is to put out false-news which will portray misinformation. It's like the North Koreans just pick up the paper and read the news or however they get fed this propaganda and read it just like I do, and it says pretty much the same sorts of things that it would if I read it, however it's the exact opposite.

I assume they have no way to verify this information (no internet, or censorship) so I'd have to say if I were in the position of a North Korean I'd be hard pressed to think that the South are friendly and not plotting with America against my nation. Regardless of how poor I am or how hungry I am. Maybe I think the situation is even worse in other parts of the world!

This is insane.

 

[zomgwtf]

Here's another article:

The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, accordingly, formally declares that from now on it will put into force the resolute measures to totally freeze the inter-Korean relations, totally abrogate the agreement on non-aggression between the north and the south and completely halt the inter-Korean cooperation.

8. All the issues arising in the inter-Korean relations will be handled under a wartime law.

http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2010/201005/news25/20100525-06ee.html

With more talks of destruction to the South and about how the South has made everything up which is known by the world... Weird.

I just hope that these acts don't bring about even tougher times for the North Korean peoples. If their government is too afraid to go into all out war they should not make their people suffer more than what they alread do for absolutely no reason.

EDIT:
http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2010/201005/news25/20100525-14ee.html
This guy died in the late 60s... Anyways I feel this is off topic, just interesting to see, thanks for that link Pattonias

 

[Glennage]

In a sharp escalation of tensions with South Korea, North Korea says it is discarding military procedures the two sides have agreed to follow for years to ensure a conflict does not get out of hand.

The general staff of the North Korean People's Army issued a notice Thursday dismantling a wide range of security guarantees it has observed for years.

Pyongyang says it will completely nullify a bilateral agreement with the South that was put in place to prevent clashes in waters west of the Korean peninsula.


Any thoughts folks? This is becoming serious.

http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/asia/North-Korea-Reneges-On-Naval-Agreement-with-South-95004154.html"

 

[Pattonias]

China has so far refused to condemn the North Korean sinking of the Corvette, and I think this is only encouraging NK to continue being so aggresive.

 

[magpies]

I personally wouldn't be amazed if china sank that corvette...

 

[Pattonias]

That is a scary thought. If China goes crazy and starts trying to destabilize it's own region everything will start to suck. I seriously doubt that they would do anything like that.

I do think that they may throw in there lot with North Korea in an attempt to ward off all out war. If they back North Korea, I don't think the SK or the US will want to risk another full on proxy war. It would make Iraq and Afganistan look like a cake walk.

 

[zomgwtf]

That is a scary thought. If China goes crazy and starts trying to destabilize it's own region everything will start to suck. I seriously doubt that they would do anything like that.

I do think that they may throw in there lot with North Korea in an attempt to ward off all out war. If they back North Korea, I don't think the SK or the US will want to risk another full on proxy war. It would make Iraq and Afganistan look like a cake walk.

If China ever did support NK in a fullout war I think it might actually start World War 3. I'm hardly inclined to think that the world would just sit around and watch as one of the worlds worst dictatorships leads a war with China against a free nation and peoples.

I don't think that'll ever happen, war in Korea? Yes, definitely. Will China support NK, highly skeptical. They are in my opinion more likely to to go to war against NK in order to revolutionize it with new communist government.

People need to undestand: China is not the same type of communist country it was 50 years ago, times have changed and China is actually a flourishing nation believe it or not. A lot of this depends on how the foreign world 'views' China, I've read many papers on this and they all concluded Yes, China does care now about being on good terms with the majority of the world. They just put up with NK, that doesn't mean they support their dictator, just they have to live with him there for now.

 

[Pattonias]

If China ever did support NK in a fullout war I think it might actually start World War 3. I'm hardly inclined to think that the world would just sit around and watch as one of the worlds worst dictatorships leads a war with China against a free nation and peoples.

I don't think that'll ever happen, war in Korea? Yes, definitely. Will China support NK, highly skeptical. They are in my opinion more likely to to go to war against NK in order to revolutionize it with new communist government.

People need to undestand: China is not the same type of communist country it was 50 years ago, times have changed and China is actually a flourishing nation believe it or not. A lot of this depends on how the foreign world 'views' China, I've read many papers on this and they all concluded Yes, China does care now about being on good terms with the majority of the world. They just put up with NK, that doesn't mean they support their dictator, just they have to live with him there for now.

I agree, the only reason they support North Korea at all is their proximity and the fact that they are "communist". They must want a regime change as much as anyone else does.

I'm thinking the Kim is getting impatient in his later years. He has wanted to unify Korea under one government and I think he wants to see this happen in his lifetime. If his command has any room to manuver at all, I wouldn't be surprised to see an attempted coup should a suicidal move be made on Kim's part. I don't see a coup being successful due to the fanatical devotion that Kim hold's over his people. He is revered almost like a god in his country.

They are not going to back off. I think that North Korea is seriously going to take this all the way. Look at their state news today.
http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm"

 

[zomgwtf]

They are not going to back off. I think that North Korea is seriously going to take this all the way. Look at their state news today.
http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm"

One thing we have to remember is that the news isn't exactly an expression of the governments wishes for the nation. Its mostly propaganda to slander the other nations and make North Korea look like it's on top of things and not afraid of the rest of the world. I'm sure that the people caught wind of what's going on in their nation through underground sources which would then cause rumours to be spread around the country.

If however their 'godlike' dictator puts propaganda material in their news stating they are preparing for war and not afraid etc. then I think it will be most reassuring to the citizens and keep them from getting afraid/run away/stand up against the government for fear of being destroyed.

I'm not entirely convinced just yet that North Korea will take this back to a war. Things like this happen probably twice a year, they just don't gain media headline coverage. I do think this has been one of those 'worse' events in quite a long time though.

 

[Pattonias]

It's the sinking of a war ship that makes this so awful. The S. Koreans can not let it go unanswered for fear of emboldening the N. Koreans in the future. There is no sign of the N. Koreans either apologizing our backing down. I will concede that the NK news is trying to keep the people from panicking by putting up a strong front, but they are really trying to stir the war-fever right now.

At the moment, unless something very different occurs war appears inevitable.