What is good time for Earth to begin new evolutionary cycle?

[Ryan_m_b]

I would not expect humans to revert to tribes, I would expect us to revert to something like a feudal system. If humans disappeared, all of our technology and buildings would likely still be there, so we wouldn't be starting over again from scratch. Some people will fight over the best locations, others would peacefully gather, but we'd end up in places where buildings already exist: we put those buildings there for a reason (usually because the city is on a river.)

We're using the word tribal in this thread incorrectly but essentially as shorthand for primitive small groups of people. We would have shelter ready made though as has been pointed out a lot our infrastructure would decay pretty quickly without an economy to upkeep it. Patching up old buildings is certainly doable. As for a feudal system that would imply a return to manoralism, which I suppose would be one possibility if enough people got together in one place and a minority group gained the support of enough muscle to lay claim to the land, then established a hierarchy of loyalty and responsibilities.

There's plenty of ways the post-fall people could organise themselves. I think the OP was mostly concerned with how much technology they would have and how quickly they could rebuild.

 

[newjerseyrunner]

Okay, I understand where I was confused.

We can do a thought experiment. I'll place myself in the apocalypse. I'm smart, strong, and have my family with me, so I'd take a leadership role. Where would I go? Okay, I'm near a prison surrounded by woods, nice fortifications, good hunting and farming ground. We move into the prison, taking it by force if we have to and lay claim to it. We start just inside the walls, but others have the same idea and start trickling in. Some we have to fight off, but it's my family's life so we're well dug in and been training. Some are friendly and either want to join us or trade. We get stronger. We clear the trees for line of sight and use the trees to build up more walls, trebuchets... So we quickly become very powerful and can lay claim to acres of farmland and hunting lands around us. The prison gets crowded so we start letting people settle small parts of our land. What can I say, I'm a nice guy and they've been through hell... but that's still MY land. If we get attacked, all of you I'm letting farm and hunt my land better fight with me. Suddenly, very gradually and mostly by accident, I'm a lord over a serf army. Sorry, I watch a lot of walking dead :P

From that I can gather that most of our technology would be left to rot. We'd probably try to keep our automobile technology at least at a rudimentary level, building, farming, and fighting technology would be kept up. I'm a computer engineer, and I'm kind of surprised that in my thought experiment I'm not really thinking about using any of that.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

Lol yeah that sounds like a plausible enough scenario, though you forgot a certain amount of assassination and revolution :p. As I said there's bound to be many different ways people organise.

 

[Graw]

I would not expect humans to revert to tribes, I would expect us to revert to something like a feudal system. If humans disappeared, all of our technology and buildings would likely still be there, so we wouldn't be starting over again from scratch. Some people will fight over the best locations, others would peacefully gather, but we'd end up in places where buildings already exist: we put those buildings there for a reason (usually because the city is on a river.)

Hmm good point. I need to add stuff that destroy all cities but nuclear war seems way too overused to me. Also... can Earth recover from nuclear war in 1000 years? Have forests, plants, purified water etc.? I'd say no.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

Hmm good point. I need to add stuff that destroy all cities but nuclear war seems way too overused to me. Also... can Earth recover from nuclear war in 1000 years? Have forests, plants, purified water etc.? I'd say no.

Why would you need to destroy the cities because of this? They might have some shelter to adapt but it's not like they're now an advanced civilization. Likewise just because they more organise in a manner akin to feudalism doesn't mean they have a feudal level of technology or industry.

 

[Graw]

Why would you need to destroy the cities because of this? They might have some shelter to adapt but it's not like they're now an advanced civilization. Likewise just because they more organise in a manner akin to feudalism doesn't mean they have a feudal level of technology or industry.

True. Still how to prevent them from living in those cities. Maybe they are afraid of old places because they believe "ghosts" are living in there.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

True. Still how to prevent them from living in those cities. Maybe they are afraid of old places because they believe "ghosts" are living in there.

I still don't quite understand why them living in cities would be a problem, they'd stil be a primitive people. I mean it takes literally no time for a city to fall into ruin. Google Pripyat and look at the images of it, particularly those that show fallen down or decrepit buildings. That town was abandoned due to the Chernobyl disaster, it's been empty just under 30 years and it looks terrible. Trees growing through tarmac, windows all smashed, the inside of buildings just a mess. There's even buildings that have literally fallen down. After another 30 years, or 100, or more I'd bet all that's really left is the empty shells of the strongest buildings.

 

[Czcibor]

Well I can change it, it is my story after all. Not all mammals. Just some kind of plague that spread very quickly. Killed most of mankind. Elite escaped to colony to build new empire. People that were not lucky enough to leave Earth went into shelters. After 50-80 years they leave shelters to explore Earth, they start to live on surface again but in 1000 years of breeding and focusing on survival resulting in primitive tribals again. Meanwhile people on other planet are living under strict rules so they don't change that much in 1000 years. There are some civil wars but rulers of Empire remain same due to their absolute dominion.

Math.

How many survived?

Then put a realistic groth rate. Plenty of food, population too small to allow contagnous diseases...

How many you get after 1000 years? Wouldn't it not imply a high enough population density to try luck with cities?

In the West there is still one game changer - potato. It has got a few times bigger yields than grains. So just with 4 field system you can maintain much more people than in medieval times.

 

[newjerseyrunner]

What about automated drones? If humans launched a million drones at each other in a world war, they could either completely destroy cities or they could still be running after all that time and patrol the cities. Nobody told them the war was over so they attack anyone that comes too close. Primitive people would surely stay away from cities that way.

 

[DaveC426913]

Cities are overrun with packs of wild dogs. They subsist on the explosion of the rat population that occurred when the rats finally chewed their way into the non-perishable food storage warehouses.

 

[newjerseyrunner]

Cities are overrun with packs of wild dogs. They subsist on the explosion of the rat population that occurred when the rats finally chewed their way into the non-perishable food storage warehouses.

That's a good idea, humans would certainly still venture into the cities for resources from time to time with weapons and fire to keep the dogs at bay, but packs of wild dogs would certainly keep me from settling there.

 

[Graw]

That's a good idea, humans would certainly still venture into the cities for resources from time to time with weapons and fire to keep the dogs at bay, but packs of wild dogs would certainly keep me from settling there.

Cities are overrun with packs of wild dogs. They subsist on the explosion of the rat population that occurred when the rats finally chewed their way into the non-perishable food storage warehouses.

That's really good idea sir. They could go there from time to time but living there is nearly impossible. Also some districts could be flooded. Yes this sounds good.

Can possibly some sort of machines survive 1000 years in shelter? Considering that they are deactivated but I don't know about they cores and everything that comes with their energy.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

It's unlikely that every town, city, village and hamlet will be overrun by animals. At least not for long given that once the scavenged human food is gone propulsion sizes will fall back to natural levels (that's if there's enough food to boost the numbers significantly anyway). Fact is animals have never been much of a hindrance to human expansion, we're pretty good at wiping out anything dangerous in short times.

In terms of machines being usable 1,000 years is a very long time. Batteries will all be dead even if not used. Something kept in a sealed, low humidity environment might be ok but I can't think of any common storage methods that use this.

 

[Graw]

It's unlikely that every town, city, village and hamlet will be overrun by animals. At least not for long given that once the scavenged human food is gone propulsion sizes will fall back to natural levels (that's if there's enough food to boost the numbers significantly anyway). Fact is animals have never been much of a hindrance to human expansion, we're pretty good at wiping out anything dangerous in short times.

In terms of machines being usable 1,000 years is a very long time. Batteries will all be dead even if not used. Something kept in a sealed, low humidity environment might be ok but I can't think of any common storage methods that use this.

Well there will be only one city in my story, but it's really huge. Some districts can be overrun by animals, some can be flooded, some can be toxic... Also I might think of new kind of batteries. Something that doesn't exist yet but can be introduced in sci-fi. Any ideas? Some super-solar power or idk.

 

[ynon]

Graw: Evolution is of course ongoing but I get your drift. Impossible to establish a time frame. We may evolve to a new similar species as we become extinct and live side by side for several thousands of years. There is precedence for this.If the extinction is part of a mass extinction the next top dog may not be sentient even. Ants individually arent sentient but a colony has a group intelligence bordering on behavior not unlike sentience. They build complex cities and roads add have nobility,workers, soldiers, farmers and nursemaids among others. They grow and harvest their own crops.Leaf cutters. After a few milliom years they might build space ships. aircraft, trains etc. with each individual doing its small unsentient part not knowing what the collective is doing. Like Congress.

 

[Czcibor]

Idea:

Instead of epidemic make an event that would destabilize Earth orbit. At first it would kill off big of population thorugh extreme weather (like -70C or +70C).

At the end, when situation stabilizes let's end with:
-colder climate and huge ice caps
-moved polar regions (yes, axis moved)
-lower sea level, population living on area of contemporary continental shelf
-main cities covered by ice or ending up in deserts

 

[Graw]

Idea:

Instead of epidemic make an event that would destabilize Earth orbit. At first it would kill off big of population thorugh extreme weather (like -70C or +70C).

At the end, when situation stabilizes let's end with:
-colder climate and huge ice caps
-moved polar regions (yes, axis moved)
-lower sea level, population living on area of contemporary continental shelf
-main cities covered by ice or ending up in deserts

This sounds interesting. Few questions to this.

-How can this happen, what is the reason of this even or is that random?
-Is it all covered in ice / sand?
-Are there still plants and forest?
-How would they protect against this harsh climate?
-What about animals?

 

[Czcibor]

This sounds interesting. Few questions to this.

-How can this happen, what is the reason of this even or is that random?

My idea to cause that without making any astronomers cry?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stellar_kinematics#Runaway_stars
And the object which tug Earth a bit is something hard to notice, like a brown dwarf.

-Is it all covered in ice / sand?

Realistically not all, but with limited effort you can have big regions covered with that, while the only habitable regions could be area with nowadays low population density (or even submerged :D ) and do not have many cities.

-Are there still plants and forest?
-How would they protect against this harsh climate?
-What about animals?

When I was playing with gravity simulator, after disturbance, the planet was making some weird orbit shifts. After a while - it was finding a more or less stable orbit. Something in that line.You have first a mass extinction event. Also animals and plants should be severely hit. Some didn't make it, some are resiliant enough and discover empty environment to colonize. You should list animals and plants that you don't like and remove them from the list. That what remains builds new food chains.

Forrest? Let's say one pine survived in a region. It started growing. After a few years it had first seeds. After 50 years - very, very dwarf forrest.
After 1000 years - quite good ones.

 

[mfb]

Anything that disturbs the orbit of Earth significantly (apart from planned intervention by humans or other intelligent beings) will also create a mess in the remaining solar system, causing a huge flood of asteroids and other issues.

I don't see a realistic way how to change the orientation of the axis of rotation. Earth is nearly spherical, tidal gravity does not exert torque. The tilt of the rotation axis relative to the orbit can change by changing the orbit, making seasons more (or less) extreme.

 

[Graw]

My idea to cause that without making any astronomers cry?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stellar_kinematics#Runaway_stars
And the object which tug Earth a bit is something hard to notice, like a brown dwarf.
Realistically not all, but with limited effort you can have big regions covered with that, while the only habitable regions could be area with nowadays low population density (or even submerged :D ) and do not have many cities.When I was playing with gravity simulator, after disturbance, the planet was making some weird orbit shifts. After a while - it was finding a more or less stable orbit. Something in that line.You have first a mass extinction event. Also animals and plants should be severely hit. Some didn't make it, some are resiliant enough and discover empty environment to colonize. You should list animals and plants that you don't like and remove them from the list. That what remains builds new food chains.

Forrest? Let's say one pine survived in a region. It started growing. After a few years it had first seeds. After 50 years - very, very dwarf forrest.
After 1000 years - quite good ones.

It's really nice idea but way too complicated to do for me.

 

[Czcibor]

Anything that disturbs the orbit of Earth significantly (apart from planned intervention by humans or other intelligent beings) will also create a mess in the remaining solar system, causing a huge flood of asteroids and other issues.

Also thought about some meteorite rains, but it did not seem being a problem when a requested event is an apocalipse.

I don't see a realistic way how to change the orientation of the axis of rotation. Earth is nearly spherical, tidal gravity does not exert torque. The tilt of the rotation axis relative to the orbit can change by changing the orbit, making seasons more (or less) extreme.

Good point - so only orbit change.

 

[Czcibor]

It's really nice idea but way too complicated to do for me.

Which part is too complicated? Especially when Mfb pointed out that axis would have to stay untouched?

 

[Graw]

Which part is too complicated? Especially when Mfb pointed out that axis would have to stay untouched?

I don't think I am able to explain this event well in my story.

 

[Czcibor]

I don't think I am able to explain this event well in my story.

If you want we may try to explain it (improve it), step by step. ("we" - because when I'd start to explain it, then someone would correct me :D ) It's not so hard and you get one disaster explained step by step.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

Surely any disturbance to the Earth's orbit would be significant enough to wipe out pretty much all life. Drastic changes in temperature globally over very short times are going to have a huge effect but the OP is trying to create a scenario where the Earth is relatively intact.

 

[ynon]

Mfb: " I don't see a realistic way how to change the orientation of the axis of rotation." You are largely correct of course but you may find this interesting.

"It's not totally correct to say that nothing acting from on or within a planet can change its rotation. There are some things about the rotation that cannot change, period, but changes to the planet's rotation rate and axis orientation are possible. Let's start by looking at a well-known children's classic." by Steven Dutch, Natural and Applied Sciences https://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/PLATETEC/ChangeRotn0.HTM The Little Prince thought experiment.

Also something happened to Uranus axis of rotation long ago. I know you know this but it is a good article. axis.http://www.optcorp.com/articles/uranus-orbit-and-rotation/

Rather than a single humongous event, Uranus axis was altered by a succession of smaller hits. Maybe. http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2011/10/-uranuss-weird-sidways-orbit.html

 

[Graw]

If you want we may try to explain it (improve it), step by step. ("we" - because when I'd start to explain it, then someone would correct me :D ) It's not so hard and you get one disaster explained step by step.[/QUOTE

Well try to explain it like we are already in the story please. Earth year 2170, super modern cities, technological plateau, countries of each continent are united into unions. Not many war conflicts expect some cultural clashes and riots in some areas. Most of cities are monstrous places surrounded by fields. Towns and villages are past, everyone is living in those giant cities. Those cities are divided into districts. Antarctica is one giant mining place. What could possibly cause this... it's not like that those runaway stars just appears. It needs something that was caused by humans.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

Well try to explain it like we are already in the story please. Earth year 2170, super modern cities, technological plateau, countries of each continent are united into unions. Not many war conflicts expect some cultural clashes and riots in some areas. Most of cities are monstrous places surrounded by fields. Towns and villages are past, everyone is living in those giant cities. Those cities are divided into districts. Antarctica is one giant mining place. What could possibly cause this... it's not like that those runaway stars just appears. It needs something that was caused by humans.

You could have a plague that is the result of human activity, perhaps an experimental weapon that was accidentally released.

 

[Graw]

You could have a plague that is the result of human activity, perhaps an experimental weapon that was accidentally released.

Yeah because they are living in dense areas this plague spreads quickly, but why would they want to create this weapon? Also that's why I said that this idea of axis is hard for me to implent into story.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

Perhaps it was a test creation but it was too good, it was heading for incineration but got out. Perhaps it was a terrorist or other extremist group.

Thing is is it that important for you to explain it? Plenty of stories don't explain everything in their history, indeed the uncertainty is entirely believable given enough time passing. In my experience authors that try to explain everything often create more problems for themselves.