What Is the Distribution of Population Multiplicities in Countries?

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on the distribution of population multiplicities across countries when individuals have a uniform probability of belonging to one of M countries. The joint distribution of these multiplicities can be expressed using multinomial probabilities, particularly when the distribution is uniform (p_k=1/M). The formula provided simplifies the calculation of probabilities for different population counts across countries. Additionally, the conversation explores the implications of non-uniform distributions and the potential relevance of power law distributions in quantifying country popularity.

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Gerenuk
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I have N people and each of them has a uniform probability to belong to one of M countries. Now I wonder what is the distribution of the multiplicities?!
I mean the number of countries with 1 person, 2 persons, 3 persons,... (no matter which country)
Is there an equation for it?

And what if the distribution is not uniform, but I know that some countries are more popular?! (a non-uniform distribution?)
Is there a sensible measure of quantifying this redistribution of popularity?

And does power law distribution play in at some point?
 
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Gerenuk said:
And what if the distribution is not uniform, but I know that some countries are more popular?! (a non-uniform distribution?)

If each person has probability p_k of being from country k independently then the distribution of country populations would be multinomial.

The joint distribution of population multiplicities would be a sum of these multinomial probabilities, which for uniform distribution (p_k=1/M) would simplify using the permutations with repeats formula, to get

P(N1=n1,N2=n2,...) = (M!/(n1!n2!...))*(1/M)^N*N!/((1!)^n1.(2!)^n2...)

where N1 is the number of countries with population 1, etc. Not sure how to get the marginal distributions though, or the joint prob for non-uniform.
 

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