What Is the Flaw in These Probability Calculations for Coin Tosses?

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on calculating the probabilities of obtaining heads in three coin tosses, given that at least one head is present. The first method calculates the probability of exactly one head as P(E) = |E|/|S| = 3/7, while the second method incorrectly concludes the probability as 3/4. The flaw in the second method is identified as it fails to account for the unconditional probability, which should be adjusted to 3/8 by multiplying the conditional probability by the probability of obtaining at least one head.

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A coin is tossed 3 times. at least 1 head is obtained. Determine each probability...?

1) exactly 1 head is obtained
2) exactly 2 heads are obtained
3) exactly 3 heads are obtained.
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for 1) brute force indicates that there 7 possible combinations:

HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH (because at least one heads is obtained).

Out of these we see that there are 3 occasions where there is exactly one heads.
If we let S be the sample space of all possable outcomes, and let E be the event of having exactly one heads, then a basic rule of probability indicates that the probability P(E)=|E|/|S|=3/7.

However, using another method:
fix one coin throw's result as heads. Then the probability of the other two throws being tails is (1/2)(1/2)=1/4.
Since we can fix heads 3 times, this indicates that the probability is 3(1/4)=3/4.

Can anyone spot where the flaw is in either of these attempts at a solution?
thanks
(this isn't a homework question btw)
 
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3/7 is a conditional probability given at least one head. For the unconditional probability you need to count TTT among the outcomes.

3/4 is the conditional probability of two tails given (one) head. "Head" has probability 1/2, so the unconditional probability is 3/4 x 1/2 = 3/8.
 

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