mheslep said:
Unlike a financially sound private pension system which pays out what participants put in over time (plus interest), the US entitlements are ponzi schemes that pay out much more than was ever paid in. With i) an aging population, and ii) anemic economic growth choking govt revenue, the problem accelerates.
I do get all that, but a sudden [edit: not sudden, see below], substantial acceleration isn't something that makes any sense to me. In order to suddenly and substantially accelerate, something had to rapidly change
this year. What I'm not seeing is the specifics on what change, how much and why --- and perhaps more importantly, is it going to keep getting worse faster next year and the year after. I guess what I'm looking for is the details on this:
Outlays for Medicare (net of premiums), Medicaid, the children’s health insurance program and ObamaCare subsidies will increase no less than 11%, or $104 billion, this year. [from my earlier link]
How much did each of those things account for the $104 billion, why, and is it going to keep getting worse that fast next year too?
[edit]
From the link, the year-over-year delta in outlays has been:
2011: +$146B
2012: -$66B
2013: -$82B
2014: +$49B
2015: +$184B
2016: +$231B
From your graph, employment has been increasing linearly since 2010 and as expected for a recovery, outlays dropped two years in a row. But stating in 2014 that trend reversed and outlays began to rise again. This is despite the fact that the country is adding jobs faster than it is adding people (so the total number of people without jobs, whether they are looking or not, is decreasing), and it should only need to add jobs about 70% as fast as it is adding people in order to keep pace.
So this reality, that we are paying more for entitlements - a lot more - than the trajectory we were on, is still very confusing to me. Federal outlays today are some $600 Billion higher than I would have expected, given the trajectory of the recovery in 2010-2012.