Who Will Win the Elections? Predictions and Analysis

[Pythagorean]

I'm almost hoping that the election results in a http://news.yahoo.com/romney-biden-administration-could-happen-223736689--abc-news-politics.html administration. Then, perhaps the Democrats and Republicans would finally talk to each other.

They talk to each other plenty... and exclude their mutually beneficial arrangements from discussion at debates.

 

[lisab]

I'm almost hoping that the election results in a http://news.yahoo.com/romney-biden-administration-could-happen-223736689--abc-news-politics.html administration. Then, perhaps the Democrats and Republicans would finally talk to each other.

Why not an Obama-Ryan administration? It would be the fittest ticket ever.

 

[jobyts]

www.intrade.com


Barack Obama
69.8%
Today's Change: +4.0
Shares Traded: 3,389,793

Mitt Romney
30.4%
Today's Change: -4.0
Shares Traded: 2,908,623

 

[rootX]

Two pundits prepared to stick their neck out and predict results in the swing states both foresee a win for Barack Obama. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball gives Obama 290 electoral college votes - 20 more than the 270 required to win - while Nate Silver at the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog envisages Obama taking 307 votes.

There are conservative pundits who predict quite the opposite. One, Dick Morris, a former Democrat, foresees Mitt Romney picking up 325 electoral college votes. George Will of the Washington Post, puts Romney on 321. Meanwhile, from the liberal camp, Josh Marshall's Talking Points Memo puts Barack Obama on 303.

A handful of websites that choose not to predict a result in "toss-up" states see a small advantage for Obama. The New York Times and the Washington Post both think Obama is able to rely on at least 243 electoral college votes, compared with 206 for Mitt Romney. Charlie Cook gives Obama 237 to Romney's 191, while Real Clear Politics leaves a full 146 electoral college votes in the toss-up category, with Obama on 201, and Romney on 191.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20201713

 

[BobG]

I'm picking Obama 291 - 248 (including Obama winning 1 electoral vote in NE).

I think maximum for Obama would be 333 - 226 if Obama sweeps every realistic 50-50 state.

I think maximum for Romney would be a 279-259 win if Romney sweeps every realistic 50-50 state.

Romney could win Ohio and still lose. He needs Ohio and either Colorado or New Hampshire (winning NH would create a tie, given a 4-1 split in NE). Granted, Romney has a better chance in CO and NH than OH, but there's no particular reason an OH victory means a CO/NH victory.

 

[rootX]

I will go with the flow and predict Obama to win.

 

[SixNein]

I think Obama is going to win, and I look forward to my dose of Schadenfreude the next day.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Bob Dylan has predicted Obama in a landslide.

 

[russ_watters]

On the sampling error issue, I've seen this statement a few times: "The poll of polls does not have a sampling error." I always took it to mean the polls are not necessarily compatible or weren't combined using rigorous techniques.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/05/politics/inside-the-polls/index.html?c=politics&page=3

 

[Pythagorean]

A little boost towards Obama. Chrysler, whom Romney parroted Trump's false accusations about shipping jobs to China, is giving their entire workforce the day off to vote:

http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/11/chrysler-gives-workers-day-off-to-vote-148617.html

 

[arildno]

I believe Obama will win, with 300-310 votes in the electoral college.

 

[Evo]

Problems with voting already. Here's a video a man took showing that if he votes for Obama, the machine changes it to a vote for Romney.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/watch-glitch-voting-machine-pennsylvania-171806481--election.html

 

[Borg]

I went to the polls at 3pm and had a 45 minute wait for the first time ever. I always vote around that time because it's never busy. Everyone that I spoke with at work had to wait over an hour when they voted in the morning. Looks like it's going to be a big turnout in Virginia.

 

[Pythagorean]

More problems with voting. Cheating, this time.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/11/06/oregon-election-worker-fired-for-altering-ballots-to-republican-straight-ticket/#.UJkw3tO6X4k.reddit

 

[nsaspook]

More problems with voting. Cheating, this time.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/11/06/oregon-election-worker-fired-for-altering-ballots-to-republican-straight-ticket/#.UJkw3tO6X4k.reddit

She needs to lose her right to vote by becoming a convicted felon.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

She needs to lose her right to vote by becoming a convicted felon.

And then there should be a trial.

 

[Borg]

And then there should be a trial.

I say we vote on it. You can count the votes.

 

[leroyjenkens]

Problems with voting already. Here's a video a man took showing that if he votes for Obama, the machine changes it to a vote for Romney.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/watch-glitch-voting-machine-pennsylvania-171806481--election.html

I heard that guy was bugging it himself by putting his other finger on another part of the screen or something like that.

 

[Gokul43201]

Looks like FL might be close (yes, I'm aware the panhandle votes will be solid red, but there's more uncounted Miami-Dade ballots than there are panhandle residents)! There's a non-trivial chance this might be an early night.

I'm curious about the people that chose Romney in the poll above this thread. What polling info were you folks basing your decision on?

PS: On a related note - since we don't have a thread for Congressional seats - the numbers for Scott Brown are not looking great. That's somewhat expected, but unfortunate.

 

[russ_watters]

I probably should have checked this, but the polls actually moved quite a bit toward Obama over the past week:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

 

[Gokul43201]

With 78% of FL precincts reporting (and two-thirds of the uncounted ballots in Broward and Miami-Dade), I think Obama could win FL by over 1%.

Edit: Upon closer inspection, I think the margin will probably be under 1%, but still in Obama's favor.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

With 78% of FL precincts reporting (and two-thirds of the uncounted ballots in Broward and Miami-Dade), I think Obama could win FL by over 1%.

Edit: Upon closer inspection, I think the margin will probably be a little under 1%, but still in Obama's favor.

Will there be a recount?

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

does anyone have a link that shows all counts? i want to see if gary gets his 5%

 

[rootX]

does anyone have a link that shows all counts? i want to see if gary gets his 5%

http://www.youtube.com/politics

US General Election
November 6, 2012
This page updates automatically
Candidate

Popular Vote

Electoral

Mitt
Romney

50.5%
20,654,439

153

Barack
Obama

48.5%
19,848,072

123

Gary
Johnson

0.6%
251,259

0

 

[Gokul43201]

Looks like the Tea Party just lost the Republicans a Senate seat in IN.

In FL, I think we'll get pretty close to triggering that automatic recount. The margin to beat is 0.5%.

Edit: The only pollster I know that called FL for Obama was Silver (his margin for Obama in FL was 0.3%).

 

[Gokul43201]

does anyone have a link that shows all counts? i want to see if gary gets his 5%

Extremely unlikely. I don't think he breaks 2%. More likely, somewhere near 1%.

https://news.google.com/news/section?pz=1&cf=all&topic=el&ict=rhc&ar=1352256626 (click "show all candidates")

 

[russ_watters]

Greg: Every major news outlet has an election center. Here's CNN's: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main?hpt=elec_racenav

 

[Angry Citizen]

Looks like the Tea Party just lost the Republicans a Senate seat in IN.

Also lost them a pickup in Missouri. Fascinating. The Republican Party needs to remove the word "rape" from its vocabulary.

 

[Gokul43201]

Obama seems to have taken PA quite easily (so NOT an expansion of the Republican territory after all), and is looking pretty comfortable in IA.

 

[Pythagorean]

right...

(comment out of context with removed post)