Who Will Win the Presidential Election? Predict and See!

[micromass]

Let's see who can predict the future best! Reply to this thread with who you think will win (so not who you want to win). You can add a small justification if you like, but please do not get into a political discussion.

Add the results of the electoral college and of the popular vote of the winner (in percentage) too. The closest one wins!

 

[HossamCFD]

The parallels with Brexit are hard to ignore. I'm not too certain about it, but I think Trump will win.

 

[fresh_42]

Wouldn't it make sense to insert a vote in the OP? It won't prevent participants to also comment their opinion.

 

[Borg]

How about if people also put their guesses for the number of electorial college votes received by the winner?
I'm guessing that Hillary will win with about 335 and 48.7% of the vote.

 

[HossamCFD]

How about if people also put their guesses for the number of electorial college votes received by the winner?

Good idea. My guess would be Trump with 279 (47% of the popular vote).

 

[Vanadium 50]

I took my best guess, assuming no poll bias, and got 269-269. That throws the election into the House. I am not 100% sure that the House will vote for Trump. If, for example, one faithless elector were to vote for Mike Pence instead of Donald Trump, the House might well seize on the opportunity.

If one assumes the polls are off by as much as the Brexit polls were, in the Trump direction, it's 201-337 Trump. If it's in the Clinton direction, it's 341-197 Clinton.

 

[micromass]

See the updated thread: if you want to win, please also predict the electoral college votes and the percentage that the winner gets in the popular vote!

 

[Evo]

As was announced in the POTUS thread, this game will be closed after winner is announced, just FYI.

 

[Char. Limit]

Hillary Clinton, with 291 electoral votes and, say, 48.8% of the popular vote. That's my guess. I'm assuming she'll win Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, but lose Florida. I think that's not too bad an assumption.

 

[Evo]

Hillary Clinton, with 291 electoral votes and, say, 48.8% of the popular vote. That's my guess. I'm assuming she'll win Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, but lose Florida. I think that's not too bad an assumption.

Welcome back!

 

[fresh_42]

HC with 286 by 50.85% (HC) : 47.32% (DT)

 

[DrClaude]

HRC with 300 electoral votes.

 

[Evo]

Party is over. Thread closed.