The news media loves a horserace, and they've got y'all believing it's going to come down to the wires. It won't. The height of Romney's post-Denver bounce was enough to put him almost neck and neck with Obama. The bounce has since receded dramatically. Obama's "firewall" in Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will win him the day.
Romney will literally have to sweep the remaining swing states to eke out a victory, plus steal one from the firewall, and that's just not going to happen. The only swing state showing him up at this point is North Carolina, and there are some encouraging numbers from the early voting polls to show that NC may be closer than the polls indicate.
Obama will win, and he will likely win with around 300 EV's or more. Florida is a tossup, and it's the only reason why I'm not predicting a ~330 Obama victory. I also highly recommend not citing national polls when attempting prognostication. The auto bailout has seemingly kept the midwest firewall intact, while the Republican enthusiasm (especially in deep red states) will likely allow Romney to keep the national vote close or even going in his favor. I suspect a split between the EV winner and PV winner is much more likely than people imagine, but I'm not willing to make that prediction.
At this point, I'm most interested in Virginia. If it goes Democrat again, and I think there's a serious chance it will, then it can be said that 2008 was the start of a new political landscape that will be very bad for Republicans. Virginia going blue twice is as bad for Republicans as Pennsylvania going red twice would be for Democrats. It represents a serious breach in their otherwise-solid wall of the old Confederacy. The ramifications for 2016 are immense. Unless the Republicans can find a way to escape the trap of appealing only to WASPs, 2008 and 2012 will be the harbingers of their doom.
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