US Midterm Elections - Predictions and Post-mortems

[Gokul43201]

Use this thread for all discussion relating to today's midterms.

Until 4:00pm ET today, you can put in your predictions for the makeup of the Senate, House, and Statehouses, as well as for any individual races that you might find interesting (e.g., Senate: NV, CA, CO, WA).

Also feel free to share names of candidates you'd like to see win (irrespective of their odds right now).

After results start coming out this evening, we can switch to post-analysis mode.

 

[Gokul43201]

Some predictions:

Senate D:51, R:49

I think Murkowski will lose AK by more than 5%, and Boxer will win CA by less than 5%. I'd have liked to see Boxer go, but would have preferred she lost to someone else. I expect NV to go to Angle, and I'll be happy for that, though again, I might have liked to see a different kind of candidate win that race. I will be relieved when O'Donnell loses DE. I'm not sure about CO and WA, so I'm splitting them equally: one D, one R.

More predictions later ...

 

[Astronuc]

Voters carry anxiety, disappointment to the polls
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_america_votes

I would like to see people like Bob Inglis (Robert Durden "Bob" Inglis, Sr.) of S. Carolina in the running for Congress, Senate or President.

Rep. Bob Inglis On Republican 'Demagoguery'
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128516243

This comment of his caught my attention when I first heard it.

The other thing, just to pick up an example, what I’m supposed to do as a Republican is just echo back to you Anne that yes, CRA was the cause of the financial meltdown in October of 2008. And if I said that to you I’d be clearly wrong because if you think about it, CRA had been around for decades. So how could it be that it caused the problem suddenly in October of 2008? The problem was over borrowing in our individual lives, in our corporate lives and in our country. That’s what created the problem, along with interest rates being kept too low, too long by the Fed. Those kinds of things are what created the financial meltdown in October of 2008. It was not CRA. But I know that as a Republican, what I’m supposed to say is, “Yep, Anne, that’s exactly right. It’s CRA.” Because you see we conservatives don’t like that program. So therefore we can just establish it as a scapegoat. Democrats like it and we can of course put the racial hue on that and that makes it even more powerful. But if we do that, we go further away from the solution, the solution is to deal with those fundamental things, not pick up on scapegoats and run with it.

http://thinkprogress.org/2010/07/15/inglis-vitter-boehner-cantor/

 

[Gokul43201]

No one else biting?

For the House, I like D=205, R=230

 

[Gokul43201]

Haven't really followed much of the Gubernatorial races. One person I really like though, is Rick Snyder (MI), and I think he'll win quite easily!

Edit: Just found this - now I like him even more!

 

[Astronuc]

Early analysis and races to watch
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upshot/the-races-to-watch-not-necessarily-the-races-you-have-been

 

[WhoWee]

Everyone I've spoken with (in person) today has indicated they voted against incumbents and tax issues.

 

[WhoWee]

Do you think Media Matters will retract?
http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/201009300004

"Latest absurd Morris prediction: GOP will pick up "60 to 80" House seats, but "it could go as high as 100""

 

[Evo]

Everyone I've spoken with (in person) today has indicated they voted against incumbents and tax issues.

Did they actually have good, well thought out reasons, or just knee jerk reactions?

 

[humanino]

Here is an ignorant immigrant comment : the constant winner in US elections seems to be abstention. I read that 50% voter turnout is high. Why ? Should not the american citizens take the duty which comes with their freedom more seriously ? My underlining thought is the poor information they receive, but maybe I am wrong.

 

[Gokul43201]

Here is an ignorant immigrant comment : the constant winner in US elections seems to be abstention. I read that 50% voter turnout is high. Why ? Should not the american citizens take the duty which comes with their freedom more seriously ? My underlining thought is the poor information they receive, but maybe I am wrong.

Trends and variations in voter turnout has been extensively studied - plenty of references listed in the wiki page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout#International_differences

 

[Astronuc]

Many voters are discouraged.

It's not yet 10 pm on the east coast, and the networks seem to be indicating that the republicans have retaken the House.

Apparently, Republicans have captured nine seats previously held by Democrats and are leading in more than two dozen seats around the country in Congressional elections.

Conservative Democrat Joe Manchin won the Senate seat in W. Va. GOP hopes he'll switch parties after the election. I would hope he goes independent if he wishes to change party affiliation.

 

[Evo]

Sadly for midterm elections, it's more likely that voters with an agenda to push will be the ones to vote. Organized groups (think Tea Party) will bus people to the polls in order to push their agendas. Those without agendas are unlikely to be as well organized or as motivated.

IMO, is this kind of thing bad for the country overall, yes.

 

[lisab]

Here is an ignorant immigrant comment : the constant winner in US elections seems to be abstention. I read that 50% voter turnout is high. Why ? Should not the american citizens take the duty which comes with their freedom more seriously ? My underlining thought is the poor information they receive, but maybe I am wrong.

That's a really good question.

I think for many Americans, there's a feeling that politics doesn't affect daily life. For much of the country, Washington DC feels a long, long way away. The problems and issues that the politicians deal with are nothing like the problems and issues the common people face.

 

[jtbell]

In South Carolina, Jim DeMint (R) has of course handily won re-election to the Senate against his virtually nonexistent competitor Alvin Greene (D).

Right now, with about 70% of the vote counted, a Columbia TV station shows DeMint with 62%, Greene with 29%, and 10% for the Green Party candidate, Tom Clements.

I consider 10% to be an amazingly high figure for a minor-party candidate in SC (probably in most other places in the US, in a race for national office). This probably comes from people who normally vote Democratic but can't stomach voting for either Greene or DeMint.

 

[Gokul43201]

And with that, one hopes the Alvin Green anomaly will resolve itself and vanish in a puff of sanity.

 

[WhoWee]

Did they actually have good, well thought out reasons, or just knee jerk reactions?

Maybe they just like term limits?

 

[WhoWee]

Sadly for midterm elections, it's more likely that voters with an agenda to push will be the ones to vote. Organized groups (think Tea Party) will bus people to the polls in order to push their agendas. Those without agendas are unlikely to be as well organized or as motivated.

IMO, is this kind of thing bad for the country overall, yes.

This is the first report I've heard of the Tea Party busing people to the polls.

 

[Evo]

This is the first report I've heard of the Tea Party busing people to the polls.

I know church groups that routinely do it, I've been to church groups that were organizing the busing (some of my old high school friends are born again christians and would insist that I come to prayer meetings to show me they weren't what I thought, that backfired). I have no reason to believe that they have suddenly stopped. They were also organizing letter writing campaigns that were pure fraud. They said that studies showed that every person that is compelled to write represents 10,000 like minded individuals. they handed out templates for the letters and asked that everyone write as many as they could and then turn them in because they had volunteers that would drive around and deposit them over a wide area so that it didn't look so obvious. Swear to god, I'm not making this up.

 

[WhoWee]

I know church groups do it, I've been to church groups that were organizing the busing (some of my old high school friends are born again christians and would insist that I come to prayer meetings to show me they weren't what I thought, that backfired).

Are you saying you were nearly "Bush Whacked"? LOL

 

[lisab]

In South Carolina, Jim DeMint (R) has of course handily won re-election to the Senate against his virtually nonexistent competitor Alvin Greene (D).

Right now, with about 70% of the vote counted, a Columbia TV station shows DeMint with 62%, Greene with 29%, and 10% for the Green Party candidate, Tom Clements.

I consider 10% to be an amazingly high figure for a minor-party candidate in SC (probably in most other places in the US, in a race for national office). This probably comes from people who normally vote Democratic but can't stomach voting for either Greene or DeMint.

Oh I hope you're right, jt...I'd hate to think that they thought they were voting for Greene and ended up voting Green !

 

[jtbell]

My wife and I both voted for Clements, ourselves, not because we thought he had any chance at all of winning, but hoping enough people would do likewise to register a visible "protest" against Greene.

A local TV station just showed a report from the ballroom that was Greene's headquarters for tonight. There were just two or three supporters there, and a few TV reporters. Greene didn't make any kind of speech, just wandered around the room with the TV cameras chasing him, eating munchies from the buffet table, and making noncommital, sort of off-the-wall remarks to reporters. Really weird, and kind of sad.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Feingold has lost in my home state. That is HUGE!

 

[Gokul43201]

Feingold has been moving farther and farther left in recent years. A few months ago, he was the only Dem that didn't vote for the Financial Reform Bill. His argument: it didn't do enough.

I'll miss him too! He fought some good fights.

 

[drankin]

Um, wow. Things are looking really red.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The latest projection: The Dems have retained control of the Senate. Also, Reid is leading by 7% so far.

That's about all I cared about tonight. The bloodbath of red was obviously expected, but I am still very sad for the country.

On the up side, the just-say-no party won't be able to get away with that anymore, so this does help to secure Obama's victory in 2012.

 

[Gokul43201]

Do you think Media Matters will retract?
http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/201009300004

"Latest absurd Morris prediction: GOP will pick up "60 to 80" House seats, but "it could go as high as 100""

I'll make a small bet the GOP does not win over 70 seats, and a very, very large bet they do not win 100.

 

[stinkbomb12]

The latest projection: The Dems have retained control of the Senate. Also, Reid is leading by 7% so far.

That's about all I cared about tonight. The bloodbath of red was obviously expected, but I am still very sad for the country.

On the up side, the just-say-no party won't be able to get away with that anymore, so this does help to secure Obama's victory in 2012.

Obama won't have a victory in 2012.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Obama won't have a victory in 2012.

Sure he will. Just ask Russ!

 

[Gokul43201]

The real bloodbath is not in the Senate or the House, but in the Statehouses.