Will Hurricane Wilma Reach Category 4 Before Hitting Florida?

[dduardo]

Here we go again. Hurricane Wilma is expected to make landfall in Florida on Saturday. The weather service says it has the potential to reach Category 4 by Friday.

Good Luck to those living in Florida.

 

[loseyourname]

Where are you? On vacation? Or is this another part of Florida?

 

[dduardo]

I'm I am Miami.

Here is a map of the path:

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropprjpath24_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg

[edit] It looks like honestrosewater is in the path too.

 

[JamesU]

one more storm and it's a record breaking year!

 

[dduardo]

AHH! Category 5! Presssure: 884 mb! Strongest Storm in Recorded History!

 

[rachmaninoff]

AHH! Category 5! Presssure: 884 mb! Strongest Storm in Recorded History!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip" was recorded at 870mb. Wilma is just* the strongest Atlantic storm.

*so far as of now

 

[Mk]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip" was recorded at 870mb.

lol, that ones in my neck of the woods! We got the real ones here.

 

[cronxeh]

I think its going to hit AL

 

[Astronuc]

Wilma was moving NW (0715-0945 UTC, 0315-0545 EDT) and then did a near 360 (0945-1215 UTC, 0545-0815 EDT). It could still move across the Yucatan in which case its strength would diminish. Certainly the Gulf Coast is at risk, especially if Wilma stays at Cat 5 (175 mph/ 280 km/h winds).

Estimated min central pressure as of 1200 UTC (0800 EDT) was 882 mb...26.05 in. (NHC-NOAA).

If Wilma does continue to move NW for the next 4-5 days, it would presumably threaten the oil and gas production in the western Gulf again.

If it remains as strong as Katrina or Rita and makes landfall in the US, it will certainly inflict several more billion dollars of damage to the US economy.

High pressure over Florida at this morning would keep Wilma moving toward W or NW. As high pressure moves eastward, Wilma would turn N or NE, especially if high pressure system moves into Tx.

I collected some figures in thread on http://www.everything-science.com/index.php?option=com_smf&Itemid=82&topic=5446.msg57890#msg57890.

 

[Moonbear]

Uh oh, looks like my parents are in the path of that one. I predict they won't leave...somehow they'll rationalize that gas prices are too expensive to travel so will stay put.

 

[Astronuc]

Well, the eye has had some really strange movement. It has done a couple of 360 loops earlier today, and during the last two hours has move more due west, which is good news for Florida, but bad new for Yucatan.

Still Wilma could turn more northerly then easterly, but Hurricanes Iris (2000) and Keith (2001) when into central Mexico after crossing the Yucatan.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

AHH! Category 5! Presssure: 884 mb! Strongest Storm in Recorded History!

This is terrible!

 

[dduardo]

I looks like the computer models aren't in my favor. They seem to be focused on south florida with the lastest advisory.

 

[cronxeh]

I looks like the computer models aren't in my favor. They seem to be focused on south florida with the lastest advisory.

Something tells me they are ridiculously off.

 

[cdhotfire]

I looks like the computer models aren't in my favor. They seem to be focused on south florida with the lastest advisory.

pray!

I live in Florida also, just moved from Naples to Ocala, so I am a bit safer.

 

[Astronuc]

High pressure system moving into Texas from New Mexico and Colorado with a low pressure system front moving across the Mississippi Valley toward the Atlantic Coast doesn't bode well for Florida.

Wilma's eye is still moving W or NW toward Yucatan Peninsula, which is bad for Yucatan, but Wilma will lose strength. However watch to see if it changes to more northerly or NEasterly as the high moves eastward.

While Wilma has downgraded to Cat 4 (145 mph/230 km/h sustained winds), it could restrengthen during the day.

 

[Human Being]

Ugh

I don't live down on "Hurricane Lane", but personally, I am sick of these storms!

I don't want to get into my personal opinion that much here, but let it be known
that I'm not alone in my opinion that these storms are being "guided" by hi-tech.
Reading the news reports, it would seem that some meteorologists are mystified
by the anomalous behavior of recent hurricanes. "Surprise" redirections, and odd
restrengthening, hasn't gone unnoticed - but has gone unexplained. Who knows.

I don't know where Wilma will hit, but I would bet it *won't* be in the forecast!
Houston maybe?

 

[Evo]

I don't live down on "Hurricane Lane", but personally, I am sick of these storms!
I don't want to get into my personal opinion that much here, but let it be known
that I'm not alone in my opinion that these storms are being "guided" by hi-tech.
Reading the news reports, it would seem that some meteorologists are mystified
by the anomalous behavior of recent hurricanes. "Surprise" redirections, and odd
restrengthening, hasn't gone unnoticed - but has gone unexplained. Who knows.
I don't know where Wilma will hit, but I would bet it *won't* be in the forecast!
Houston maybe?

One look at the hurricane tracking site's chart of hurricanes in the past and you'd see how "normal" irratic moves are. They go backwards, do loops and zig zag irratically.

see this link http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001.html

 

[Astronuc]

Reading the news reports, it would seem that some meteorologists are mystified by the anomalous behavior of recent hurricanes. "Surprise" redirections, and odd restrengthening, hasn't gone unnoticed - but has gone unexplained.

It just means that our meteorological models are not adequate.

The hydrodynamics of hurricanes are complex, as are most natural processes, and we simply have not had adequate hardware or computational software until the last decade or two.

Nature further complicates things because each hurricane, like each earthquake or tornado is unique - and entirely different set of initial and boundary conditions. And anyone who has tried to model complex time depedent systems will appreciate how complicated it is.

Besides, hurricanes are way too big to guide. Although cooling the Gulf, Carribean, and Western Atlantic with some icebergs might help.

 

[Moonbear]

I looks like the computer models aren't in my favor. They seem to be focused on south florida with the lastest advisory.

As long as it avoids the area north of Tampa, you can come stay with me. If it heads back on that trajectory you showed the first day, then it would include where my parents are, and if they have to evacuate to my place, then I'm going to need someplace to evacuate to myself! Having my parents stay with me for more than a day or two would be worse than living through a hurricane.

 

[Gokul43201]

Having my parents stay with me for more than a day or two would be worse than living through a hurricane.

Well, in that case, you could always move into their place !

 

[Moonbear]

Well, in that case, you could always move into their place !

Ooh, and then I'd be closer to Disney too! I could repair any damage just on the commission I'd make buying Disney pins for Zz everytime a special edition one comes out that he can't get there for!

 

[dduardo]

Oh, great now Alpha has formed:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/weblog/hurricane/

 

[Astronuc]

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...ALPHA BECOMES THE TWENTY-SECOND NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON AND
BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR THE MOST ACTIVE SEASON ON RECORD...

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IF EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

and the season isn't over yet! Five more weeks.

But this one is projected to head right over the Dominican Republic and stay out in the Atlantic. We'll have to wait and see.

TD depression was a low pressure area just east of the lesser Antilles 4 days ago. There is another system out there now - so watch out for BETA next week.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I never realized that the entire Greek alphabet is feminine.

 

[matthyaouw]

My sympathies to all involved and everything, but why is it that people go on holiday to the gulf coast during an incredibly active hurricane season and then are legitimately surprised when there is a hurricane?

 

[honestrosewater]

Everyone okay? dduardo?

 

[dduardo]

Yep, I'm fine. I'm currently running off of a backup generator.

 

[Astronuc]

Jeb Bush announced that about 2-2.5 million people are without electrical power, which probably means those in the southern tip of Florida are without electricity and internet - mostly around Naples to W. Palm Beach and south. That area got the NW quadrant of the eye - with the highest winds.

Key West apparently has a lot of flooding and damage.

 

[dduardo]

You should see downtown miami. It is flooded in ankle deep water.