Will there be a million people on the moon by 2060?

[donglepuss]

What do you think????

 

[fresh_42]

That is 78 people a day. No way.

 

[berkeman]

What do you think????

What would be their motivation?

 

[russ_watters]

What would be their motivation?

Millionth customer gets free groceries.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Is ChatGPT asking questions now?

There won't even be a million people in Antarctica by then,
Heck, I'd be surprised if there were a million people in Detroit.

 

[berkeman]

Is ChatGPT asking questions now?

Hey, Hey! Who you calling a chatbot?!

 

[fresh_42]

Heck, I'd be surprised if there were a million people in Detroit.

No problem if I get my time machine working.

 

[phinds]

What do you think????

Lunacy.

 

[Klystron]

A 2060 timeline seems much too short to build self-sustained habitats on and within Luna. One million inhabitants seems like an arbitrary figure without logical basis.

 

[pinball1970]

What do you think????

A base perhaps for a "team"scientists/astronauts and engineers?

This from last month

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230317-the-epic-quest-to-build-a-permanent-moon-base

 

[berkeman]

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230317-the-epic-quest-to-build-a-permanent-moon-base

Looks like they are a bit confused about where to point their comm antennas...

 

[pinball1970]

They had much more imagination for this sort of thing in the 1970s.

1971

1975

As for Moon attire

 

[Vanadium 50]

Looks like they are a bit confused about where to point their comm antennas...

Sidelobes, man, sidelobes.

 

[CityguyUSA]

What do you think????

No air, no water, no energy, no concrete, no groceries and no way of getting anything other than flying them up from earth. What do you think?

 

[Vanadium 50]

No air, no water, no energy, no concrete, no groceries

Hear the one about the restaurant on the moon? Good food...but no atmosphere.

<rimshot>

 

[pinball1970]

Hear the one about the restaurant on the moon? Good food...but no atmosphere.

<rimshot>

 

[Office_Shredder]

Looks like they are a bit confused about where to point their comm antennas...

View attachment 325118

What makes you think they want to communicate with earth?

 

[CityguyUSA]

What makes you think they want to communicate with earth?

They can't make it through dinner without using their cell phones.

 

[StatGuy2000]

I am quite confident to say that I do not foresee any sustained human population of any appreciable size outside of Earth for at least another century at the earliest. The logistics and economics involved in maintaining such a population would simply be too onerous. In fact, it is entirely possible that we may never be able to establish a sustainable human population outside of Earth.

I think it is far more likely to have a sustained population of robots on the moon (perhaps being used to exploit mineral resources from the moon which can then be shipped back to Earth, assuming that there are deposits that are actually of worth and value from the moon). I also see a potential sustained population of robots on Mars or other planets within our solar system as well.

 

[CityguyUSA]

Robots need repairs. I don't know how feasible it would be to even do what your suggesting. We'd have to run out of whatever on earth before robots on foreign bodies would make sense. Minerals would have to be like incredible easy to get at because of wear and tear on robots. Think about the size of the machinery today that does mining and that's just the excavating then it has to be processed. You wouldn't want to pay to haul waste back to earth and no robot is going to be able to know what to dig or how to build tunnels or pits, etc. it would be incredibly overwhelming and where do you get the energy from?

 

[BWV]

I think it is far more likely to have a sustained population of robots on the moon (perhaps being used to exploit mineral resources from the moon which can then be shipped back to Earth, assuming that there are deposits that are actually of worth and value from the moon). I also see a potential sustained population of robots on Mars or other planets within our solar system as well.

ISTM its always easier to dig deeper on earth than to try to bring materials down from orbit. The deepest mines on earth go down a few KM, whereas oil&gas wells regularly go deeper than 10KM. Easier to send robots 5-10km underground to mine than send them to the moon or a near-earth asteroid. Think any future space mining will solely be for materials used off-earth

 

[russ_watters]

Robots need repairs.

No they don't. We don't repair our space robots now, and I see no reason why that would change.

This isn't to say I think space mining will ever be viable.

 

[Rive]

What do you think????

Assuming this question is about living people?
If no, then yes, there may be.

I think one of the most popular services related to the Moon will be about burials (of small samples of ashes, at $/mg price).

 

[StatGuy2000]

Robots need repairs. I don't know how feasible it would be to even do what your suggesting. We'd have to run out of whatever on earth before robots on foreign bodies would make sense. Minerals would have to be like incredible easy to get at because of wear and tear on robots. Think about the size of the machinery today that does mining and that's just the excavating then it has to be processed. You wouldn't want to pay to haul waste back to earth and no robot is going to be able to know what to dig or how to build tunnels or pits, etc. it would be incredibly overwhelming and where do you get the energy from?

I should note that my reply earlier in post #19 was based on what scenario was more likely in 2060:

1. a million people on the moon (or more broadly, any large sustained population outside of Earth), or
2. a colony of robots on the moon (or elsewhere in the solar system) harvesting resources from the moon (for the benefit of humans).

I'm arguing that scenario #2 was far more likely than scenario #1. But I concede that neither scenarios are especially likely.

I should also note that your reply above is based on the assumption of the capabilities of robots as of today, not their (potential) capabilities as of 2060.

It is possible that we could have specialized robots tasked with the repair of robots used for space mining. Also, pattern recognition capabilities could theoretically be developed which would enable robots to be able to identify minerals and then plan to dig and build tunnels or pits, etc. As for energy, battery energy could (potentially) be developed that has the capability to store, say, solar energy captured from the sun.

Of course, whether it would ever be economical to haul and transport minerals from the moon to earth with robotic technology is an open question.

 

[jbriggs444]

The most plausible reason I can come up with to put a million people on the moon is vanity. You put a million people there to demonstrate that you can. You occupy those people with maintaining your lunar Taj Mahal. Perhaps you visit occasionally when you want a high profile vacation or temporary shelter from extradition.

Or, perhaps it could be a place to stash prisoners under ambiguous jurisdiction.

 

[russ_watters]

Assuming this question is about living people?
If no, then yes, there may be.

I think one of the most popular services related to the Moon will be about burials (of small samples of ashes, at $/mg price).

I think that's illegal.

 

[BWV]

I went to a tech conference in Marin County back in 2012, the kind of resort hotel where the best and brightest In Silicon Valley need to have the strawberries on the breakfast buffet labeled ‘gluten free’. Panelists and people in idle conversation were all seriously talking about dying on Mars, like there would be a one-way shuttle available in their dotage.

 

[sbrothy]

It's a logistical impossibility. Like evacuating Earth while babies are being born left and right. Even if they found an antimatter mine they'd need only physicists, technicians and military to protect the investment.

Why they'd put someone like me up there is beyond me. But yeh, when they asked for volunteers for a oneway trip to mars there were no shortage.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I am not sure if it's worth posting, since this was obviously a post-and-run by the OP, but this works out to 75 people per day (assuming we start now). That is what, 4000x what was done for Apollo?

 

[sbrothy]

I think the only true believer is Elon Musk but I think he read too much L. Ron Hubbard as a child.

 

[fresh_42]

I am not sure if it's worth posting, since this was obviously a post-and-run by the OP, but this works out to 75 people per day (assuming we start now). That is what, 4000x what was done for Apollo?

I had 78 starting 2025 to give a little bit of a lead. But I liked your comparison with poor Detroit - pun intended.

 

[Vanadium 50]

There's some wiggle room - do we count Apollos 8, 10 and 13 as close enough?

Another scaling argument: in today's dollars, the US spent $20B per person on the moon. A million people is $20,000T - essentially 1000 years GDP. To put a million people on the moon also requires us to do better by a factor of several thousand.

 

[Rive]

I think that's illegal.

It's a blooming business

 

[jbriggs444]

To put a million people on the moon also requires us to do better by a factor of several thousand.

It's not that bad. We can shave off at least a factor of two by sending up young pregnant women. Along with a handful of dedicated males.

 

[pinball1970]

It's not that bad. We can shave off at least a factor of two by sending up young pregnant women. Along with a handful of dedicated males.

Smart thinking, although space flight probably not recommended for anything beyond second trimester.

Take off music suggestion would be..