Zero-One Laws: Examples of Measurable Events w/ Probability 0 or 1

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around zero-one laws in probability theory, specifically exploring examples of measurable events that have probabilities of either zero or one. Participants are interested in identifying instances where it remains an open question whether the probability is zero or one, particularly in naturally occurring mathematical contexts.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Technical explanation, Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants mention various zero-one laws, such as Kolmogorov's, which assert that certain measurable events have probabilities of zero or one.
  • One participant provides an example involving a 3-dimensional cubic grid where edges are deleted with a certain probability, discussing the function f(p) that determines the existence of an infinite cluster and noting that the exact critical probability at which f switches from 1 to 0 is unknown.
  • Another participant references hidden variable controversies in physics, suggesting that if there is a single case where correlation is exact, it can be proven that the probabilities cannot be purely probabilistic.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants have not reached a consensus on specific examples of measurable events with uncertain probabilities, and multiple competing views and examples are presented.

Contextual Notes

The discussion includes unresolved questions regarding the exact critical probabilities in the provided examples and the implications of hidden variable theories in physics.

Who May Find This Useful

Readers interested in probability theory, mathematical examples of zero-one laws, and the intersection of probability with physics may find this discussion relevant.

economicsnerd
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There are various zero-one laws (e.g. Kolmogorov's) that assure us that certain measurable events have probability zero or one in a given context.

Does anybody know any good examples of events (preferably "naturally" occurring elsewhere in math) which are covered by such a theorem, but for which it's currently an open question whether the probability is zero or one?
 
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http://mathoverflow.net/questions/2...e-law-gives-probability-0-or-1-but-hard-to-de

A simple example: consider the 3-dimensional cubic grid, and connect each point to the 6 adjacent ones by edges. Then delete each edge with probability p.

Define a "cluster" to be a connected component of the resulting graph.

Let f(p) be the probability that there exists an infinite cluster. By the zero-one law, f(p) is either 0 or 1, since the existence of an infinite cluster does not depend on the edges in any finite box. Also, it should be clear that increasing p cannot increase the probability of an infinite cluster, so that f is nonincreasing. Therefore, the only question is at which critical probability f switches from 1 to 0. The exact value is unknown (though there are good estimates).
 
Any others?
 

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