turbo-1 said:
We have had blanket assertions from the GOP and from some members on this board that failing to extend the Bush tax cuts to all will kill job-creation. That is a right-wing fantasy.
No it isn't. There is no way to know for sure. In healthy economy, perhaps not, in a crappy economy it could most certainly.
The Reagan tax cuts didn't create jobs,
I wouldn't say that. Reagan saw one of the largest economic booms in history, and his tax cuts I think very much responsible for this. With the Reagan tax cuts, we saw capital flow into the stock and bond markets, which led to much business and hence job creation. Prior to this, the wealthy had most of their money hidden. Remember, there is a point at which if you tax the higher-earners too much, you kill off incentive to work and invest, and such people hide their money. From these points, if you lower tax rates, you can see increased investment, job creation, and revenue.
In a
healthy economy, I'd venture that letting the Bush tax cuts expire on the wealthiest would not have such an effect, because the rates wouldn't be raised that much. But we are in a crappy economy right now, so there is no way to know for sure. Also the government must have that firm commitme to cap spending.
Also remember the Reagan tax cuts were from some pretty high rates, and were for everyone as well, so there was both a supply-side and demand-side (Keynesian) effect. the Keynesian effect in this sense was just applied by giving more money to consumers via tax cuts as opposed to bureaucrats spending it.
Not sure on W's tax cuts, but W's were also a combination demand and supply-side stimulus, as taxes were cut for everyone. The Child Tax Credit was doubled from $500 to $1000 per child and tax rates were lowered across-the-board.
It can be (and should be, IMO) argued that since the middle class and poor spend most of their income, that extending those tax cuts would stimulate the economy and perhaps aid in job-creation. Giving tax-cuts to millionaires would have no such effect.
But no one is arguing to "give" tax cuts to millionaires, they are arguing to not raise their taxes right now.
Unfortunately, we have minority rule in the Senate, and though there was talk of bargaining to keep tax cuts for people at $500K or even $1M income, and rescinding the cuts for higher incomes, even that was not enough for the GOP. All tax cuts for the wealthy must be extended or they wouldn't allow any extension of unemployment benefits. That's sick.
IMO, it's pretty simple, extend the Bush tax cuts for everyone, and extend unemployment benefits, due to the economy.
In a healthier economy, I would say end the unemployment benefits because they keep unemployment artificially higher, and rescind the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, but with a firm commitment to keep spending in check.
Right now, the economy is unusually crappy, so the argument that unemployment benefits are keeping the unemployment rate artificially high, well maybe, but so many are unemployed or under-employed right now, if we end them, I think it will hurt more than help at the moment. Once jobs start becoming available, then let them expire, and people can become employed. Right now the jobs just aren't out there.
The GOP blames deficit spending on the Democrats (who share the blame for sure) while they play the same games. If the extended tax cuts had to be paid for, where would the money come from?
That is why we need a commitment to fiscal conservatism from everybody as well.