mheslep
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Romer's finding of a tax multiplier of three is from the 2007 paper, and has some qualifiers.
THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF TAX CHANGES: ESTIMATES BASED ON A NEW MEASURE OF FISCAL SHOCKS
C Romer, D Romer, UC Berkley, March 2007
In Romer's later paper released just prior to the US stimulous legislation she sites different figures, more in line w/ the CBO numbers Gokul points to above. There are numerous professional critics of that view (spending stimulates more than tax increases depress), as we discussed last month
[url]https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=2833038&postcount=760[/url]
THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF TAX CHANGES: ESTIMATES BASED ON A NEW MEASURE OF FISCAL SHOCKS
C Romer, D Romer, UC Berkley, March 2007
www.econ.berkeley.edu/~cromer/RomerDraft307.pdf[/URL]In terms of consequences, there are six main findings. First, tax changes have very large effects on output. Our baseline specification suggests that an exogenous tax increase of one percent of GDP lowers real GDP by roughly three percent. Our many robustness checks for the most part point to a slightly smaller decline, but one that is still well over two percent. Second, these estimated effects are substantially larger than those obtained using broader measures of tax changes, such as the change in cyclically adjusted revenues or all legislated tax changes. This suggests that failing to account for the reasons for tax changes can lead to substantially biased estimates of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal actions. Third, investment falls sharply in response to exogenous tax increases. Indeed, the strong response of investment helps to explain why the output consequences of tax changes are so large. Fourth, the output effects of tax changes are highly persistent. The behavior of inflation and unemployment suggests that this persistence reflects long-lasting departures of output from its flexible-price level, not
large effects of tax changes on the flexible-price level of output.
In Romer's later paper released just prior to the US stimulous legislation she sites different figures, more in line w/ the CBO numbers Gokul points to above. There are numerous professional critics of that view (spending stimulates more than tax increases depress), as we discussed last month
[url]https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=2833038&postcount=760[/url]
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