Advanced Probability Question

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the probability of a 26-year-old individual, who has not recalled a dream in six years, experiencing six vivid dreams over six consecutive nights. The inquiry includes the interrelated nature of the dreams and seeks to formulate a probability equation for this scenario.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant expresses confidence in their understanding of probability but acknowledges a lack of expertise in this specific scenario.
  • Another participant, Jameson, argues that the information provided is insufficient for a mathematical determination of the probability, citing the absence of standards for recalling dreams or interwoven dreams.
  • A later reply reiterates the difficulty in calculating the probability but suggests that there may be a way to assess the odds of not dreaming for six years and then having six dreams in a row.
  • CB proposes that the consecutive nature of the dreams may not be relevant from a probability standpoint, suggesting that a triggering event could mean these dreams are part of a single occurrence rather than independent samples.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the challenges of determining a mathematical probability for the scenario presented. However, there is no consensus on whether it is possible to assess the odds of the specific situation described, with differing views on the relevance of the consecutive dreams.

Contextual Notes

The discussion highlights limitations in the available data, such as the lack of defined probabilities for dream recall and interwoven dreams, as well as the potential influence of external factors on the dreaming experience.

crimsonking024
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appreciate your help greatly.

I am very good with probability but am no expert.

I am looking to find the probability for a subject that is 26 years old, whom hasn't recalled a dream in six years, to all of a sudden have six extremely vivid dreams on six straight nights. Also the dreams are all interwoven and consist of the same subject and place and expand upon the others(if you can't formulate this part that is fine).

If someone could help me out with writing this out and also getting the actual probability of this scenario, I would really appreciate it! If you have any questions or need any more factors, just let me know but I think that what was given should be enough to generate an equation and get an answer.

Thanks
 
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Hi crimsonking024,

This is not something that can be determined mathematically with the information you gave us. There's no standard for "probability that one recalls a dream" or "probability two dreams are interwoven" so we can't really help you with this problem. If you can provide some numbers or you have other questions then we'll be happy to help.

Jameson
 
Jameson said:
Hi crimsonking024,

This is not something that can be determined mathematically with the information you gave us. There's no standard for "probability that one recalls a dream" or "probability two dreams are interwoven" so we can't really help you with this problem. If you can provide some numbers or you have other questions then we'll be happy to help.

Jameson

Yea, I figured that might be impossible. There should be way to determine the odds of someone not dreaming for six years and having six dreams on six consecutive days though...
 
crimsonking024 said:
Yea, I figured that might be impossible. There should be way to determine the odds of someone not dreaming for six years and having six dreams on six consecutive days though...

The six dreams on six consecutive nights is probably irrelevant from a probability point of view as there may well be a triggering event and so these are not samples from a random distribution of vivid dreams over time, but in effect a single event.

CB
 

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