Approximation of skellam distribution by a Gaussian one

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the approximation of the Skellam distribution, which arises from the difference of two independent Poisson-distributed random variables. Participants explore the feasibility of approximating the probability Pr(n ≥ 0) using a Gaussian distribution and consider alternative distributions for cases where the parameters are small.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant states that if at least one of the lambda parameters is large, a Gaussian distribution with the same mean and variance will serve as a good approximation.
  • Another participant counters that this may not hold true in all cases and expresses a desire to address more general scenarios.
  • It is suggested that for small lambda values, truncating the distributions might be a viable approach, as the probability of large n becomes negligible.
  • One participant proposes using maximum likelihood estimation to approximate one distribution with another, detailing the process of maximizing the expected log-likelihood with respect to the parameters of the approximating distribution.
  • A later reply requests further clarification on the maximum likelihood approach mentioned earlier.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the applicability of the Gaussian approximation, indicating that multiple competing perspectives exist regarding the best approach to approximate the Skellam distribution.

Contextual Notes

Participants note limitations related to the size of the lambda parameters and the potential inaccuracies introduced by truncating distributions, but do not resolve these issues.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be of interest to statisticians, mathematicians, and researchers working with Poisson processes or those seeking to understand distribution approximations in statistical modeling.

sabbagh80
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Hi, everybody

Let [itex]n_1[/itex] ~ Poisson ([itex]\lambda_1[/itex]) and [itex]n_2[/itex] ~ Poisson ([itex]\lambda_2[/itex]).
Now define [itex]n=n_1-n_2[/itex]. We know [itex]n[/itex] has "Skellam distribution" with mean [itex]\lambda_1-\lambda_2[/itex] and variance [itex]\lambda_1+\lambda_2[/itex], which is not easy to deal with.
I want to find the [itex]Pr(n \geq 0)[/itex]. Is it possible to find a good approximation for the above probability by employing an approximated "Gaussian distribution"? If "Gaussian" is not a good candidate, which distribution can I replace it with?
 
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If at least one of the lambdas is large, the Gaussian with the same mean and variance will be a good approximation.
 
But it is not always the case. I want to deal with the more general cases.
 
Yes, I know. But for small lambda, I don't think there's any simpler approximation. Of course, you could in that case just truncate the distributions. If the mean is small, the probably of large n is vanishingly small, so it won't introduce much inaccuracy to leave them out.
 
To approximate one distribution with another use maximum likelihood, i.e. maximize
[tex]E[\log(f(X;t))[/tex]
wrt the parameter vector t, where f is the pdf or pmf of the approximating distribution. E.g. solving for the normal distribution we get [itex]\mu=E[X][/itex] and [itex]\sigma^2=E[X^2]-E[X]^2[/itex].
 
bpet said:
To approximate one distribution with another use maximum likelihood, i.e. maximize
[tex]E[\log(f(X;t))][/tex]
wrt the parameter vector t, where f is the pdf or pmf of the approximating distribution. E.g. solving for the normal distribution we get [itex]\mu=E[X][/itex] and [itex]\sigma^2=E[X^2]-E[X]^2[/itex].

Could you please explain it in more details.
 

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