Are all proxies equally reliable in paleoclimate reconstruction?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the reliability of different proxies used in paleoclimate reconstruction, exploring how various proxies are weighted and their effectiveness in measuring historical temperatures. The scope includes theoretical considerations, the reliability of specific proxies, and the implications of excluding certain data sources.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants question whether different proxies are weighted differently in temperature reconstructions and if some are considered more reliable than others.
  • One participant suggests that the reliability of proxies may depend on the time period being studied and the specific conditions during that time.
  • There is a concern about the impact of excluding tree ring data on temperature reconstructions, with questions about whether such exclusions would lead to significant changes or only marginal effects.
  • Another participant highlights that Tex86 is currently regarded as a valuable paleo proxy thermometer but raises issues regarding the inherent fallacies in proxy data due to multiple variables affecting the same proxy values.
  • Participants mention various other proxies available for paleoclimate studies, including ice cores, boreholes, corals, lake/ocean sediment, and cave deposits, noting that research often focuses on periods that do not rely on tree rings.
  • One participant points out that during the Pliocene, climate conditions were understood without relying on tree ring data, indicating the existence of alternative proxies for temperature determination.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the reliability of various proxies and the implications of excluding certain data sources. There is no consensus on the extent to which the exclusion of tree ring data would affect temperature reconstructions, and multiple competing perspectives remain regarding the weighting and reliability of different proxies.

Contextual Notes

Participants acknowledge limitations related to the availability and reliability of proxies, the influence of environmental factors on proxy data, and the potential for confounding variables in paleoclimate reconstructions. Specific assumptions about the reliability of proxies and the conditions under which they are effective remain unresolved.

DnD Addict
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Sorry if this has been brought up before, but when there is a temperature reconstruction for the distant past, are the different proxies weighted differently?

Are some considered much more or much less reliable then others?
 
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Would you consider the fact that the Earth travels with the sun through the galactic disk once every about 32 million years causing an increase in cosmic rays leading to increase of temperature as accurate as measuring say coral or tree rings? (That of course is a theory but I'm just using it as an exaggerated example :-p)

Of course some are more reliable than others... it also depends on how far into the past you would like to go and what was occurring during that period.
 
Yeah, I figured there would be. Do you have something that explains it a little further?

Like if someone were to throw out all of the tree ring stuff, for let's say the last 2k years, would the past temperature reconstruction alter dramatically (In places where the are only a loose correlation with w/e other proxies there are), or only marginally?
 
Currently the most valued paleo proxy thermometer is Tex86, however, as said numeorus times before, the problem with all proxies is that it is an inherent affirming the consequent fallacy whenever there are more variables that lead to the same proxie values.

And if you really zoom into that problem, it is looking ugly.
 
DnD Addict said:
Like if someone were to throw out all of the tree ring stuff, for let's say the last 2k years, would the past temperature reconstruction alter dramatically (In places where the are only a loose correlation with w/e other proxies there are), or only marginally?


Tree rings have their limitation since they don't grow everywhere
and moisture levels affect their growth as does CO2 levels.
If all the tree ring data were to be thrown out it wouldn't matter very much.
There are other proxies available:

Ice cores
Boreholes
Corals
Lake/Ocean Sediment
Cave deposites

In addition, a lot of research is focused on time periods that do not
rely upon tree rings. For example, during the Pliocene
(between 2.5 to 5 Million years ago) we know the climate was
very warm but with CO2 levels similar to today. However that
temperature determination is not based on tree rings at all.
 

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