Are probabilities predictive and statistics a posteriori ?

In summary, probabilities in statistics represent the likelihood or chance of an event occurring based on the available data and information. They are used in prediction by calculating the likelihood of a particular outcome or event happening based on past observations and data. A priori probabilities are based on logical reasoning and prior knowledge, while a posteriori probabilities are based on empirical evidence and observations. However, probabilities cannot accurately predict the future with certainty as they are subject to change and uncertainty. Probabilities and statistics are closely related, as probabilities are used in statistics to make predictions and analyze data, and statistics also helps to calculate probabilities and assess the validity of predictions.
  • #1
jk22
729
24
could we say like the title that if we throw coins n times the result were s=nhead/n this were statistics and we could find a prediction for the next toss p(s)=?

I thought we could reason like : the next tosses shall equilibrate towards 1/2 so for example p(s)=1-s ?
 
Physics news on Phys.org
  • #2
You can say that. But the probabilities don't have to be predictive. Even after a coin toss has been done, if you don't see the result, you use a 50/50 odds for guessing the result. That is not predictive, since the toss has already happened.
 
  • Like
Likes nomadreid and Observeraren

1. What do probabilities in statistics represent?

In statistics, probabilities represent the likelihood or chance of an event occurring based on the available data and information.

2. How are probabilities used in prediction?

Probabilities are used in prediction by calculating the likelihood of a particular outcome or event happening based on past observations and data. This can help to make informed decisions and predictions about future events.

3. What is the difference between a priori and a posteriori probabilities?

A priori probabilities are based on logical reasoning and prior knowledge, while a posteriori probabilities are based on empirical evidence and observations.

4. Can probabilities accurately predict the future?

While probabilities can provide insight and help make informed decisions, they cannot accurately predict the future with certainty. They are subject to change and uncertainty, and there are always external factors that can influence outcomes.

5. How are probabilities and statistics related?

Probabilities and statistics are closely related as probabilities are used in statistics to make predictions and analyze data. Statistics also helps to calculate probabilities and assess the validity of predictions.

Similar threads

I Guessing a coin toss correctly
    • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
6
Views
1K
I A variation of the sleeping beauty problem
    • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
2
Replies
57
Views
1K
I Finding bias of the coin from noise corrupted signals
    • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
11
Views
1K
I Exploring OLS and GLM Models: Understanding the Link Function and Coefficients
    • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
3
Views
830
I Prove that the tail of this distribution goes to zero
    • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
2
Views
1K
A Covariance of Posterior Predictive Distribution
    • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
1
Views
959
Rigorous mathematical definition of sampling
    • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
13
Views
2K
I Making Sense of Notation Confusion in Statistical Digital Signal Processing
    • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
6
Views
1K
B Random variable reflecting its probability
    • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
7
Views
1K
MHB Probability that we get totally at most 30 times "head"
    • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
6
Views
2K

Hot Threads

Recent Insights

Back
Top