Are probabilities predictive and statistics a posteriori ?

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SUMMARY

This discussion centers on the distinction between probabilities and statistics, particularly in the context of coin tosses. When tossing a coin n times, the statistic s=nhead/n represents the observed frequency of heads, which does not inherently predict future outcomes. The participants argue that while one might assume future tosses will balance towards a 50/50 distribution, this does not constitute a predictive model, as the outcome of previous tosses does not influence the probability of future results.

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  • Understanding of basic probability theory
  • Familiarity with statistical concepts such as frequency and prediction
  • Knowledge of random events and their properties
  • Ability to differentiate between descriptive and inferential statistics
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  • Explore the concept of "Law of Large Numbers" in probability theory
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This discussion is beneficial for statisticians, data scientists, educators in mathematics, and anyone interested in the foundations of probability and its applications in predictive analytics.

jk22
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could we say like the title that if we throw coins n times the result were s=nhead/n this were statistics and we could find a prediction for the next toss p(s)=?

I thought we could reason like : the next tosses shall equilibrate towards 1/2 so for example p(s)=1-s ?
 
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You can say that. But the probabilities don't have to be predictive. Even after a coin toss has been done, if you don't see the result, you use a 50/50 odds for guessing the result. That is not predictive, since the toss has already happened.
 
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