Battle for Ex-House Speaker's Seat in Illinois

[Astronuc]

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87974972

Morning Edition, March 7, 2008 · In Illinois, residents in the 14th Congressional District vote Saturday in a special election to replace former House Speaker Dennis Hastert. Democrats are pulling out the big guns, including ads by Sen. Barack Obama, to help their candidate. Traditionally, the district has voted for Republicans.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois'_14th_congressional_district

Bill Foster (D) - Physicist and business owner
vs
Jim Oberweis (R) - Business owner

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois's_14th_congressional_district_special_election,_2008

It will be interesting to see if a democrat will be elected in a heavily republican district.

 

[Vanadium 50]

In the interest of full disclosure, I have been a collaborator of Bill's for over a decade, and I am a minor contributor to his campaign. I also disagree with him on many of the positions he holds.

I think this analysis is not so simple. The "Heavily Republican District", like most districts, was gerrymandered almost a decade ago to be a safe seat for the incumbent. The demographics of this district are continually changing, and today it's much less rural and more suburban, overall more affluent, but with more entrenched pockets of poverty. At the same time, the Illinois Republican Party has transformed themselves from a good governance/anti-machine party that wasn't very strong on ideology (and kept winning elections) to one that is much more ideological in nature (and keeps losing them). Some of the people behind this change refer to the transition as "the great RINO hunt".

Jim Oberweis is perhaps the archetype of this new Illinois republican He is also a perpetual candidate who has thus far failed to be elected to public office.

So I don't think it's quite so clear. I also don't think that it's valid to draw national inferences based on the result of this election.

 

[Astronuc]

I also don't think that it's valid to draw national inferences based on the result of this election.

Absolutely, but the media and the parties like to discuss local matters as though it does reflect a national trend, e.g. if you vote D or R locally, that automatically infers support for the D and R presidential candidate. I think (I hope) that folks are smarter than that.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

It will be interesting to see if a democrat will be elected in a heavily republican district.

Or a physicist in a district full of mathematicians. If there is a record of him assuming that all functions are smooth, I'm sure the Republicans will make the most of it.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Bill Foster just won the special election over Republican Jim Oberweis. (Pending the recounts, of course) Out of 28768 registered voters, 6519 voted, 3294 for Foster, 3216 for Oberweis, and 9 for other candidates.

 

[Astronuc]

Bill Foster just won the special election over Republican Jim Oberweis. (Pending the recounts, of course) Out of 28768 registered voters, 6519 voted, 3294 for Foster, 3216 for Oberweis, and 9 for other candidates.

That's a small turnout, and I as previously mentioned, it doesn't seem as significant as both parties make it out to be. It seems a pretty close race.

Democrat claims Hastert's former congressional seat
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/03/09/obama-backed-candidate-scores-upset-win/

(CNN) – A Democratic victory in a special election to fill the congressional seat held by former Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert is a sign of things to come, according to the party. Barack Obama’s campaign says it’s a demonstration of his electoral coattails.

First-time candidate Bill Foster, a physicist, beat Republican Jim Oberweis, a money manager and head of a giant dairy. The national Republican Party spent millions on his behalf.

Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, who leads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Foster’s victory demonstrated to Republican candidates that “Senator (John) McCain, who campaigned with the Republican nominee, cannot save them from defeat this November against strong Democratic challengers, even in districts that voted overwhelmingly for President Bush.”

The race had shaped up to be a presidential face-off of sorts, with McCain stumping for Oberweis and Obama backing Foster.

I think the media overplays the significance.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The election was held on a Saturday, which is unusual, and both sides seem to think helped the other guy. (I guess that probably means it was fair)

So far as I know, neither presidential candidate "stumped" for anyone, in the sense of appearing with them on the podium. Both Senators McCain and Obama made television ads. While it's true that the national GOP spent millions on Oberweis, it's also true that the national Democratic party spent millions on Foster. I think the biggest parallels that can be drawn is that both Congressman Foster and Senator Obama's campaigns drew in people who would otherwise not be politically active. (I don't remember the exact number, but something like 75% of Foster's contributors had never given to a political campaign before) But it's far from certain that Senator Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

 

[Astronuc]

Mr. Foster Goes to Washington

From Physics to Politics: Mr. Foster Goes to Washington

The newest PhD in Congress advises disgruntled scientists to get involved in the political process

When physicist Bill Foster was contemplating a congressional run in his Illinois home district, he got some helpful advice from others who had made the jump from science to politics. He was told, he says, that he should branch out from science policy and "bring a scientific view to the full range of issues."

Foster, 52, who spent 22 years as a scientist at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab) in Batavia, Ill., now has his shot after defeating Republican James Oberweis in a March 8 special election to finish out the term of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R), who resigned in November. Sworn in on March 11, he joins two other PhDs in Congress—Reps. Rush Holt (D–N.J.) and Vernon Ehlers (R–Mich.)—both physicists.

Democrats hailed the victory—in what has long been a solidly Republican district—as a sign of voter dissatisfaction with the policies of the Bush administration. But the win was also a hopeful sign for scientists who have watched from the sidelines in disbelief as politicians cut science funding and distorted research on evolution, stem cells and global warming.

Foster says he wants to bring his "fact-based" approach to issues such as health care and energy. " the starting point is always the facts of the matter, whereas often in politics the starting point is how does this play in the next election," he says.

He has the scientific credentials to back up his talk: In graduate school at Harvard University in the early 1980s, Foster worked on the IMB (Irving-Michigan-Brookhaven) proton decay detector, a cube of purified water 60 feet (18 meters) wide constructed deep inside a salt mine located under the shore of Lake Erie. Lined with highly sensitive light-detecting tubes, the experiment was designed to test so-called grand unified theories (GUT) of particle physics, which predicted that protons in the water would very rarely split into lighter particles and produce a flash of blue light. Foster's 1983 PhD thesis contained some of the detector's first published data, which ruled out the simplest GUT.

We need more scientists in Washington!

 

[Gokul43201]

Dr. Foster becomes Mr. Foster when he enters politics, eh?

 

[Poop-Loops]

No, the Mr. is short for "Master".

 

[jaap de vries]

Scientists do pretty wel in politics think of "[URL="[PLAIN]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Merkel"[/URL] in Germany.

 

[Poop-Loops]

No wonder she cringed when Bush tried to give her a back rub. She was afraid he would suck out all her intelligence from her.

Osmosis is a powerful thing, you know.