Bayesian Network Homework: Equations & Solutions

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on solving equations related to Bayesian networks, specifically calculating conditional probabilities. The user successfully derived equations for parts A, B, and C, including P(B|JC), P(B|!JC, MC), and P(JC|MC). The user seeks confirmation on the correctness of their approach, particularly for part C, and inquires about computing P(JC, MC). The method for calculating P(JC, MC) involves analyzing various scenarios related to burglaries and alarm activations.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of Bayesian networks and conditional probability
  • Familiarity with probability notation and calculations
  • Knowledge of event scenarios in probability theory
  • Experience with solving equations involving joint and marginal probabilities
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  • Study Bayesian network structure and inference algorithms
  • Learn about joint probability distributions and their applications
  • Explore advanced topics in conditional probability, including Bayes' theorem
  • Investigate software tools for Bayesian network modeling, such as Netica or GeNIe
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Students studying probability theory, data scientists working with Bayesian models, and anyone involved in statistical analysis or machine learning applications.

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Homework Statement



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Homework Equations

The Attempt at a Solution



For part A I solved for P(B|JC) = P(B,JC)/P(JC)
For part B I am thinking P(B|!JC, MC) = P(B, !JC, MC) / P(!JC, MC)
For part C I am thinking P(JC|MC) = P(JC, MC)/P(MC)

Am I on track with these equations? Especially for part c? How do I compute P(JC, MC)?
 
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The probability that john calls and mary calls can be found by examining all cases:
Burgled --> Alarm --> John calls =A1
Burgled --> Alarm --> Mary calls=A2
Not burgled --> Alarm --> John calls =B1
Not burgled --> Alarm --> Mary calls =B2
Burgled --> No Alarm --> John might call, but Mary won't =C1
Not Burgled --> No Alarm --> John might call, but Mary won't =D1
edit: P(JC & MC) = A1*A2/p(Burgled + Alarm) + B1*B2/p(Not burgled + alarm) + C1*0/p(burgled and no alarm) + D1*0/p(not burgled and no alarm)
P(MC) = A2+B2+0+0
P(JC) = A1+B1+C1+D1
 

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