News Biden & Graham Debate Iraq: 1/7/07 on Meet the Press

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The debate between Senators Biden and Graham on Meet the Press highlighted the complexities of the Iraq situation, with Biden advocating for a political solution and Graham emphasizing the need to prevent a civil war. The discussion raised doubts about Iraq's potential for recovery, questioning whether the U.S. should continue its involvement or withdraw and let Iraqis take control. Concerns were expressed about the implications of a U.S. withdrawal, including the possibility of increased chaos and anti-U.S. sentiment. The military community's growing skepticism about the war's success was noted, alongside the challenges posed by sectarian divisions in Iraq. Ultimately, the conversation underscored the urgent need for a viable political resolution to end the ongoing violence.
  • #251
Art said:
Yes, if Iran had nuclear weapons too Israel wouldn't be contemplating nuking them.
That's beside my point, which is "relatively recent nuclear military powers have a relatively higher probability of using those weapons."
 
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  • #252
EnumaElish said:
That's beside my point, which is "relatively recent nuclear military powers have a relatively higher probability of using those weapons."
If Israel uses bunker buster nuclear bombs then it will be because the US supplied them to her specifically for this purpose.
 
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  • #253
F.B.I. Says Guards Killed 14 Iraqis Without Cause
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/14/world/middleeast/14blackwater.html
By DAVID JOHNSTON and JOHN M. BRODER
F.B.I. agents investigating the Sept. 16 episode in which Blackwater security personnel shot and killed 17 Iraqi civilians found that all but three of the shootings were unjustified.

WASHINGTON, Nov. 13 — Federal agents investigating the Sept. 16 episode in which Blackwater security personnel shot and killed 17 Iraqi civilians have found that at least 14 of the shootings were unjustified and violated deadly-force rules in effect for security contractors in Iraq, according to civilian and military officials briefed on the case.

The F.B.I. investigation into the shootings in Baghdad is still under way, but the findings, which indicate that the company’s employees recklessly used lethal force, are already under review by the Justice Department.

Prosecutors have yet to decide whether to seek indictments, and some officials have expressed pessimism that adequate criminal laws exist to enable them to charge any Blackwater employee with criminal wrongdoing. Spokesmen for the Justice Department and the F.B.I. declined to discuss the matter.

The case could be one of the first thorny issues to be decided by Michael B. Mukasey, who was sworn in as attorney general last week. He may be faced with a decision to turn down a prosecution on legal grounds at a time when a furor has erupted in Congress about the administration’s failure to hold security contractors accountable for their misdeeds.

Representative David E. Price, a North Carolina Democrat who has sponsored legislation to extend American criminal law to contractors serving overseas, said the Justice Department must hold someone accountable for the shootings.

“Just because there are deficiencies in the law, and there certainly are,” Mr. Price said, “that can’t serve as an excuse for criminal actions like this to be unpunished. I hope the new attorney general makes this case a top priority. He needs to announce to the American people and the world that we uphold the rule of law and we intend to pursue this.”

Investigators have concluded that as many as five of the company’s guards opened fire during the shootings, at least some with automatic weapons. Investigators have focused on one guard, identified as “turret gunner No. 3,” who fired a large number of rounds and was responsible for several fatalities.

Very sad. :frown:
 
  • #254
So is it really doomsday yet? Is our survival rate as a species down to 40% currently? How legit of a nuclear threat is Iran and North Korea right now? I don't mean to turn a political thread into a philosophical one, but is it reasonable to think that nuclear fallout is inevitable and that we're doomed as species? Cause quite frankly, I'm pretty scared about nuclear fallout.
 
  • #255
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/12/iraq/main3489316.shtml?source=RSSattr=World_3489316"

Last month saw 369 "indirect fire" attacks - the lowest number since February 2006. October's total was half of what it was in the same month a year ago. And it marked the third month in a row of sharply reduced insurgent activity, the military said.

The U.S. command issued the tallies a day after Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said suicide attacks and other bombings in Baghdad also have dropped dramatically, calling it an end of sectarian violence.

Things are looking up.

Total rocket and mortar attacks rose steadily from 808 in January 2007 to a peak of 1,032 in June, before falling over the next four months, a U.S. military statement said Monday. That decline also was seen in Baghdad, where such attacks rose from 139 in January to 224 in June, and then fell to only 53 attacks in October, it said.

The Iraqi spokesman for a U.S.-Iraqi push to pacify the capital said the decline in violence would allow the government to reopen 10 roads later this month.

"This will help reduce traffic jams and citizens will feel life returning to normal," Brig. Gen. Qassim al-Moussawi told Iraqi state television.

Associated Press figures show a sharp drop in the number of U.S. and Iraqi deaths across the country in the past few months. The number of Iraqis who met violent deaths dropped from at least 1,023 in September to at least 905 in October, according to an AP count.

The number of American military deaths fell from 65 to at least 39 over the same period.

Before the arrival of nearly 30,000 U.S. reinforcements this past spring, explosions shook Baghdad daily - sometimes hourly. Mortar and rocket fire were frequent as was the rhythm of gunfire.

"If we didn't have so many people coming forward to help, I'd think this is a flash in the pan. But that's just not the case." - Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, U.S. Commander south of Baghdad

Now the sounds of warfare are rare. American troops have set up small outposts in some of the capital's most dangerous enclaves. Locals previously lukewarm to the presence of U.S. soldiers patrol alongside them. And a historic lane on the eastern banks of the Tigris is set to reopen later this year, lined with seafood restaurants and an art gallery.

Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, commander of U.S. forces south of the capital, said Sunday he believed the decrease would hold, because of what he called a "groundswell" of support from regular Iraqis.

It sounds as if we are winning hearts and minds. Don't you just love it when a plan comes together (finally)?
 
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  • #256
This could be artificial - I'd wait and see what happens in the few weeks before the US elections.
 
  • #257
LightbulbSun said:
but is it reasonable to think that nuclear fallout is inevitable and that we're doomed as species? Cause quite frankly, I'm pretty scared about nuclear fallout.

The fallout from Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and the several tens of atmospheric nuclear weapon tests in the 50-ies and 60-ies is far more important than what would result from a few weapons from Iran or N-Korea, and contributes as of now to about 0.1-0.5% of the background radiation (the 99% remaining is natural background). A few nuclear weapons would only have regional impact. So no, we're not doomed yet because of that.
 
  • #258
Yonoz said:
This could be artificial - I'd wait and see what happens in the few weeks before the US elections.

Now that would truly be artificial!
 
  • #259
LightbulbSun said:
So is it really doomsday yet? Is our survival rate as a species down to 40% currently? How legit of a nuclear threat is Iran and North Korea right now? I don't mean to turn a political thread into a philosophical one, but is it reasonable to think that nuclear fallout is inevitable and that we're doomed as species? Cause quite frankly, I'm pretty scared about nuclear fallout.

I would be more worried about the heat and pressure wave effects...
 
  • #260
chemisttree said:
Now that would truly be artificial!
I don't get it. :confused:
 
  • #261
Yonoz said:
I don't get it. :confused:

What isn't to get? The good numbers have been rolling in for 3 months now. You say that situation might be artificial? And not something done immediately before an election aimed at influencing the result? I argue that that short term goal (if it comes to pass) is the artificial situation instead.
 
  • #262
There's a while before the elections, people have a short memory span.
If someone can bring in figures not just relating to numbers of attacks but to the underlying infrastructure, such as a tonnage of intercepted weapons and munitions, the picture can be made clearer.
EDIT: By artificial I meant the "good numbers" aren't necessarily the result of effective action by coalition forces. There are alternative causes.
 
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  • #263
Yonoz said:
There's a while before the elections, people have a short memory span.
If someone can bring in figures not just relating to numbers of attacks but to the underlying infrastructure, such as a tonnage of intercepted weapons and munitions, the picture can be made clearer.
EDIT: By artificial I meant the "good numbers" aren't necessarily the result of effective action by coalition forces. There are alternative causes.

Blah, blah, blah... WHAT? Perhaps they should also bring in figures related to tonnage of oranges delivered or numbers of art galleries opened or hours of continuous electrical service provided or numbers of Iraqis out at night as well? Yes, let us study this in detail...
 
  • #264
chemisttree said:
Yes, let us study this in detail...
I would imagine a war in which your compatriots are fighting is good reason for doing so, but they're your compatriots (I assume), not mine. I was merely speculating anyway.
 
  • #265
I find it interesting that people with little understanding of military affairs and lack the proper information believe they can actually input a reasonable strategy to deal with Iraq. This is a complex issue that very intelligent people are working on, besides liberal media portrays this very dark and negative outlook on Iraq, check out the BBC they have a slightly brighter view on the war of Iraq, at least on the planned troop surge effectiveness.
 
  • #266
Astronuc said:
September 19, 2007
Migration Reshapes Iraq’s Sectarian Landscape
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/19/world/middleeast/19displaced.html
By JAMES GLANZ and ALISSA J. RUBIN

This may be the unfortunate legacy of the Bush administration and it will be a sore spot to many Iraqis and many in the Middle East for decades to come. Of course, the US will get the blame.

I was listening to interviews with young men in Jordan, and they are angry at the US. Al Qaida and other groups are using that anger to encourage a continuing jihad against the west, although the focus seems to be on the US.

"Iraqi officials say thousands of refugees return home"
Some 46,000 Iraqi refugees returned to their war-torn country last month, a sign of hope that the massive population flight since the 2003 U.S. invasion could be reversed
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/11/07/iraq.main/
 
  • #267
wars are not won and fought because joe bizzle was elected el jefe of the name-the-section of the government. von clauseqitz says war is policy by other means, but america's action against iraq was proof that there is an international law. there is an international judge, jury and executioner.
 
  • #268
Plastic Photon said:
... america's action against iraq was proof that there is an international law. there is an international judge, jury and executioner.

Whichever country is most powerful is judge, jury, and executioner?

In that case, I guess it's a good thing the US is the most powerful. If the judge, jury, and executioner were of some other culture than ours, we probably wouldn't have a very high opinion of international law.

In fact, that's pretty much the definition of lawlessness, not law.

Your logic really comes unglued. The international community imposed sanctions on Iraq and established requirements Iraq had to meet. Iraq didn't adequately comply with international law since they didn't meet all the requirements spelled out in the sanctions against them. The international community (the jury) decided the violations weren't serious enough to warrant military action at this time. The US didn't feel the sentence was severe enough, so the US imposed its own verdict in place of the verdict the international community passed.

Saying that is an example of international law is about equivalent to a jury sentencing a criminal to 2 years in prison when the prosecutor thinks the sentence should be death - and then the prosecutor pulling out a gun and shooting the criminal himself.
 
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  • #269
http://www.chicagotribune.com/services/newspaper/printedition/monday/chi-iraq_slynov19,0,4327007.story"

Attacks in Iraq have fallen 55 percent, to a level not seen since January 2006. Violence has fallen in some areas to its lowest levels since the summer of 2005. The number of Iraqi civilian casualties has fallen 65 percent, and Baghdad has witnessed a 75 percent drop since June.

Its looking better and better.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=16452549"

Morning Edition, November 20, 2007 · Nine months after the start of the U.S. troop surge in Baghdad, signs of life are slowly returning to some neighborhoods of the Iraqi capital. In the Sunni enclave of Amriya on the west side of the city, shops are reopening, and the economy is picking up.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=22970"

BAGHDAD - Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has gone on a rare walkabout in central Baghdad in the latest sign of the improving security situation in the war-ravaged Iraqi capital.

During his stroll around the landmark Abu Nuwas street, Maliki inspected newly-renovated gardens and chatted to residents and young soccer players, the premier's office said on Tuesday.

Maliki was accompanied by Interior Minister Jawad Bolani and other senior officials on Monday's tour of the riverside Abu Nuwas, named after a renowned poet and once Baghdad's most prominent street.

The premier, dressed in a suit, was surrounded by bodyguards and the area around Abu Nuwas was sealed off during the tour, a security official said.

More than four years of violence has virtually closed the once-bustling street, with its lines of cinema halls, restaurants and shops now standing empty and deserted.

But Baghdad municipal authorities are now reviving Abu Nuwas and have already given the gardens a makeover.

Baghdadis are slowly returning to the gardens and officials say they expect shops to start reopening soon.
 
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  • #270
BobG said:
Whichever country is most powerful is judge, jury, and executioner?

In that case, I guess it's a good thing the US is the most powerful. If the judge, jury, and executioner were of some other culture than ours, we probably wouldn't have a very high opinion of international law.

In fact, that's pretty much the definition of lawlessness, not law.

Your logic really comes unglued. The international community imposed sanctions on Iraq and established requirements Iraq had to meet. Iraq didn't adequately comply with international law since they didn't meet all the requirements spelled out in the sanctions against them. The international community (the jury) decided the violations weren't serious enough to warrant military action at this time. The US didn't feel the sentence was severe enough, so the US imposed its own verdict in place of the verdict the international community passed.

Saying that is an example of international law is about equivalent to a jury sentencing a criminal to 2 years in prison when the prosecutor thinks the sentence should be death - and then the prosecutor pulling out a gun and shooting the criminal himself.

I think his point was that the US deems itself the Law, Judge, Jury and Executioner.
 
  • #271
The US dollar is our foreign policy, and any nation holding the US dollar should know by now they are declaring their affairs to be inline with US policy or else suffer the consequences. Obviously something Saddam or some in Iraq did was not sitting well with the US policy at the time. It would seem now that care has been taken.
 
  • #272
How do you deal with Terrorists? #1, Don't Run!

Quote from http://www.michaelyon-online.com/wp/desires-of-the-human-heart-part-ii.htm" reportage of the early phase of the Surge.

The Iraqi commanders tend to want to tell Americans what they think. Video from this meeting was instructive. The Iraqi Police Colonel conveyed his ideas on how to handle terrorists. Idea number #1: Don’t run.

One police station nearby had just been flattened days before, and he said the station had become a graveyard, and he had walked amid the carnage. As this meeting progressed, a sharp firefight could be heard going on nearby.


What to do about Iraq? How about "Don't Run?"
 
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  • #273
No one is talking about running - that is a strawman and an example of why I don't trust the Republicans anymore and probably never will again. The goal is to turn control over to the local authorities. They need to run their own country.

I have been very encouraged by some of the recent reports coming from Iraq. Bob Gates is a good man.
 
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  • #274
Ivan Seeking said:
No one is talking about running - that is a strawman and an example of why I don't trust the Republicans anymore and probably never will again. The goal is to turn control over to the local authorities. They need to run their own country.

I have been very encouraged by some of the recent reports coming from Iraq. Bob Gates is a good man.

True, but withdrawal too soon would lead to disaster. Remember, Iraq is a counter-insurgency war and on average, those last about ten to twenty years to complete.

Also, we do not want Ahmedinejad to go in and take over the place.
 
  • #275
WheelsRCool said:
True, but withdrawal too soon would lead to disaster. Remember, Iraq is a counter-insurgency war and on average, those last about ten to twenty years to complete.
Yeah - just look at the success in Vietnam!
 
  • #276
WheelsRCool said:
Also, we do not want Ahmedinejad to go in and take over the place.

Ahmadinejad is not even in control of Iran. He is just a politician, Iran is ruled by a theocracy.

Here is an interview with http://www.podbean.com/podcast-detail/20927/stephanie-miller-show/recent" He says Iraq is going to go away next year, because the Iranians want a quiet spell.

He always has great insight.
 
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  • #277
The other issue is that if this region is so critical to the entire ME, then everyone has an interest in keeping things under control as much as possible.

So then why is just about everyone else leaving? Maybe this is just a matter of getting rid of Bush and his cowboy diplomacy.

Of course this goes right back to the other paradox: If the very future of our way of life is on the line, then where is the draft?

Sometimes I do have a hard time deciding which lie to believe. :biggrin:
 
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  • #278
Btw, Gates can at any moment tell you how long he has remaining as Sec of Defense. He is counting the hours. I can't say that I blame him either.
 
  • #279
Any political, cultural or industrial concerns about the Iraqi people and their natural resources can only be addressed by becoming an Iraqi citizen or by serving as a desirable model at home.
Any other methods of influencing outcomes in that country are undemocratic, interventionist and will be and are met with heavy, unrelenting resistance. "Surprise surprise" said Pvt. Pile.
 
  • #280
Astronuc said:
Yeah - just look at the success in Vietnam!

Vietnam was not any counter-insurgency war. It was a one year war that was fought about ten times over. The entire thing could've been won easily within one year, without any need whatsoever for the draft. The reason Vietnam was lost was because of the politicians. It's kind of hard to win a war when the government tells you you can't bomb the enemy.

When the U.S. finally DID bomb the enemy, the North Vietnamese suddenly turned to wanting to negotiate again. Had they just done that back in 1965, when the U.S. won the war in the Idrang Valley, the WHOLE THING, all those dead Northern Vietnamese, Southern Vietnamese, and American soldiers, could have been avoided completely.

For Iraq to be like Vietnam, George Bush would literally have to have ordered the military to invade Iraq and specifically prohobited them from bombing any of Saddam Hussein's infrastructure or military.

The President no longer has this authority, and when the Gulf War happened, the military went in and did it their way, the way they should've done it in Vietnam, which was to completely destroy the enemy's infrastructure and military, then invade.

They did it again with the current War in Iraq, but it is now a counter-insurgency war, which are fought a bit differently.

The French Revolution was ten years. The Chinese Communist Revolution lasted twenty-three years. The American Revolutionary War was about eight years. The Protestant-Catholic Thirty Years War lasted, well, as the title says. Counter-insurgency wars tend to take longer than conventional wars, which last over average about four years.

The other issue is that if this region is so critical to the entire ME, then everyone has an interest in keeping things under control as much as possible.

So then why is just about everyone else leaving?

Because keeping the Middle East under control is not as important to the Chinese or Russians. They would prefer the Middle Eastern dictatorships control the region, not have the United States have any influence in the area. Those countries do not want a strong United States.

Maybe this is just a matter of getting rid of Bush and his cowboy diplomacy.

They tried ordinary diplomacy with Saddam Hussein and it didn't work. The United States had plenty of reason to invade Iraq. I agree though that it was rather ridiculous to just invade and not consider that anarchy would break out with all authority gone and no police.

Of course this goes right back to the other paradox: If the very future of our way of life is on the line, then where is the draft?

Sometimes I do have a hard time deciding which lie to believe.

Because the government forced a social experiment on the United States military that involved forcing it to accept women into all sorts of positions, for equality. If they enact the draft, it will have to include equal numbers of men and women.

The only kicker is that the point of a draft would be for troops needed for combat purposes to police the country, something women cannot do.

A draft would create a whole bunch of crazy adverse affects in the country right now. If they could just draft men, things would be different, but they cannot.

Also, no politician has the guts to even try something like this right now. Politicians tend to put themselves before the country.
 
  • #281
Ivan Seeking said:
if this region is so critical to the entire ME, then everyone has an interest in keeping things under control as much as possible.

So then why is just about everyone else leaving?


Because everyone else is paying the US to fight this war. The Sauds helped finance this war and the first against Iraq. When demand runs dry, supply should then run dry as well. That at least is economics 101.
 
  • #282
Plastic Photon said:
Because everyone else is paying the US to fight this war. The Sauds helped finance this war and the first against Iraq. When demand runs dry, supply should then run dry as well. That at least is economics 101.

How are they paying us to fight this war? Who and how much? I don't know about this.

A link would help.
 
  • #283
WheelsRCool said:
Because keeping the Middle East under control is not as important to the Chinese or Russians. They would prefer the Middle Eastern dictatorships control the region, not have the United States have any influence in the area. Those countries do not want a strong United States.

I was talking countries like England, France, and Germany, and the UN.

They tried ordinary diplomacy with Saddam Hussein and it didn't work. The United States had plenty of reason to invade Iraq. I agree though that it was rather ridiculous to just invade and not consider that anarchy would break out with all authority gone and no police.

I'm talking about regional solutions, not negotiating with terrorists.

Because the government forced a social experiment on the United States military that involved forcing it to accept women into all sorts of positions, for equality. If they enact the draft, it will have to include equal numbers of men and women.
]

Well now that's a reason to allow the destruction of western civilization. How about this one: Initiate a draft tomorrow and the war will be over in a month because the public will demand it. The reason: It was based on lies.
 
  • #284
Ivan Seeking said:
I was talking countries like England, France, and Germany, and the UN.

Because they're too anti-war, and the U.N. is a very corrupt organization (remember the UN "Oil for Food" program). They (the European nations) will not go to war until they're literally being attacked on the homefront. One only need to look to World War II to see that.

Also, the French and the Germans had a lot of business interests regarding Saddam Hussein. Saddam Hussein was a buyer of French military equipment. By invading Iraq and toppling Hussein, the French lost a good deal of money.

Well now that's a reason to allow the destruction of western civilization. How about this one: Initiate a draft tomorrow and the war will be over in a month because the public will demand it. The reason: It was based on lies.

The war was not based on any lies whatsoever. Every major leader in the world believed Saddam Hussein had WMDs, and said he had to come clean. If it was based on lies, then George Bush is one heck of a lot more intelligent than the world media and political community like to say he is, to pull off a stunt like that.

Furthermore, however, the United States didn't need any evidence of WMDs in Iraq whatsoever to invade. WMDs were just one amongst seven reasons to invade Iraq, the one the media concentrated on the most.

Now I'm not saying those seven reasons were enough to justify invading Iraq, that's debatable (in my opinion it could be either/or).

But to say that the war was just based on "lies" simply isn't true.

And there are plenty of military folk out there who would love to enact a draft.
 
  • #285
WheelsRCool said:
Furthermore, however, the United States didn't need any evidence of WMDs in Iraq whatsoever to invade. WMDs were just one amongst seven reasons to invade Iraq, the one the media concentrated on the most.
WMD is the principal justification proposed by the Bush administration for going to war.

The war was not based on any lies whatsoever. Every major leader in the world believed Saddam Hussein had WMDs, and said he had to come clean. If it was based on lies, then George Bush is one heck of a lot more intelligent than the world media and political community like to say he is, to pull off a stunt like that.
OK, the Bush administration just fabricated evidence. Actually, Bush and Cheney were lying, because they were telling the US and the world that they had hard evidence, when they didn't. Rather than scrutinize and challenge any evidence, they grasp what little they could get there hands on and fabricated a convincing story. After the fact, the Bush case for war has been discredited.

Vietnam was not any counter-insurgency war.
The Pentagon and CIA would disagree. Vets whom I know from Special Forces would disagree.
 
  • #286
WheelsRCool said:
True, but withdrawal too soon would lead to disaster. Remember, Iraq is a counter-insurgency war and on average, those last about ten to twenty years to complete.

Also, we do not want Ahmedinejad to go in and take over the place.

Why do counter-insurgency wars (especially ethnically motivated civil wars) last so much longer than conventional wars?

And, how do these wars usually end? Do they ever end by the opposing sides agreeing to a peaceful settlement where all parties share power in the government?

In fact, can you give any examples where any civil war ended because both sides chose to settle their differences by sharing power in the government? (There are some, by the way, just an incredibly low percentage when compared to the number of civil wars since the end of WWII.) And are there lessons from those examples that can be applied to Iraq?

If you want a quick end to the war in Iraq, just give one party (Shiites, Sunnis, or Kurds) an insurmountable advantage and the war will end very quickly. It will be a pretty ugly end for two of the sides, but at least it will be quick.

Damp out the worst of the war and you maintain a balance that allows each side to continue fighting for eternity - unless you can find a way to convince them to commit to a shared government to the point that their very existence depends on the success of that government. If they have the means to protect themselves in the event the government process breaks down, they will eventually walk out - happens over and over again.

How do you get them to make that kind of commitment? Can a foreigner inspire them to make that kind of commitment? Are there any Nelson Mandelas wandering around Iraq waiting for the chance to unite their own country? In fact, is there any leader in Iraq that outshines Muqtada al-Sadr? He's not likely to encourage a decrease in Shiite power and probably needs to be eliminated before there can even be a slim chance of success in Iraq.

Once al-Sadr's gone, do we just keep eliminating leaders until we get lucky and someone with charisma that's committed to a united Iraq finally emerges?

There's an awful lot of problems with Iraq that depend solely on Iraq. The US will never have full control of a solution just because we're outsiders. It's not a hopeless situation, but the odds are incredibly bad - the chances of success are probably less than 5%, maybe in the low teens at best.

And don't count on a civil war of just 10-20 years. Ten years is short for ethnic civil wars. Twenty to thirty is about average for ethnic civil wars and some have been going on for about 60 years, now. As long as the opposing sides have a means to fight and a means to get new weapons, they'll keep fighting.
 
  • #287
Astronuc said:
WMD is the principal justification proposed by the Bush administration for going to war.

No it wasn't. That's what the media got people to think.

OK, the Bush administration just fabricated evidence. Actually, Bush and Cheney were lying, because they were telling the US and the world that they had hard evidence, when they didn't. Rather than scrutinize and challenge any evidence, they grasp what little they could get there hands on and fabricated a convincing story. After the fact, the Bush case for war has been discredited.

They didn't fabricate any evidence. The evidence they had was very good, but it turned out later on to have ultimately been wrong apparently. Also, President Bush was not the one who originally made it U.S. policy to overthrow Saddam Hussein, that was done by Clinton. Bush just actually went ahead and did it.

The Pentagon and CIA would disagree. Vets whom I know from Special Forces would disagree.

The Vietnam War could have been considered a counter-insurgency war in that it was a population of people rising up against a government, but in terms of how it was fought by the United States, it was very much not any counter-insurgency war. It was very much a conventional war with targets that were practically begging to be hit.

After the United States defeated the Northern Vietnamese conventionally, it became a full-on counter-insurgency war, with regards to re-building the country and so forth, but since the war had already been dragged out for ten years and most of the public had no idea how the war had actually been conducted anyhow and just wanted out, America pulled its troops, and all funding to the Southern Vietnamese, out, thus causing South Vietnam to fall to the North.

And I can't blame them at that point.
 
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  • #288
BobG said:
Why do counter-insurgency wars (especially ethnically motivated civil wars) last so much longer than conventional wars?

And, how do these wars usually end? Do they ever end by the opposing sides agreeing to a peaceful settlement where all parties share power in the government?

In fact, can you give any examples where any civil war ended because both sides chose to settle their differences by sharing power in the government? (There are some, by the way, just an incredibly low percentage when compared to the number of civil wars since the end of WWII.) And are there lessons from those examples that can be applied to Iraq?

If you want a quick end to the war in Iraq, just give one party (Shiites, Sunnis, or Kurds) an insurmountable advantage and the war will end very quickly. It will be a pretty ugly end for two of the sides, but at least it will be quick.

I don't think the war can be ended quickly for those reasons though. One primary reason fori nvading Iraq was to create a democratic nation in the Middle East. Now I'm not saying that's possible, but that was the idea. To just turn power over to one group I doubt would result in such a country.

Damp out the worst of the war and you maintain a balance that allows each side to continue fighting for eternity - unless you can find a way to convince them to commit to a shared government to the point that their very existence depends on the success of that government. If they have the means to protect themselves in the event the government process breaks down, they will eventually walk out - happens over and over again.

I agree.

How do you get them to make that kind of commitment? Can a foreigner inspire them to make that kind of commitment? Are there any Nelson Mandelas wandering around Iraq waiting for the chance to unite their own country? In fact, is there any leader in Iraq that outshines Muqtada al-Sadr? He's not likely to encourage a decrease in Shiite power and probably needs to be eliminated before there can even be a slim chance of success in Iraq.

Once al-Sadr's gone, do we just keep eliminating leaders until we get lucky and someone with charisma that's committed to a united Iraq finally emerges?

There's an awful lot of problems with Iraq that depend solely on Iraq. The US will never have full control of a solution just because we're outsiders. It's not a hopeless situation, but the odds are incredibly bad - the chances of success are probably less than 5%, maybe in the low teens at best.

And don't count on a civil war of just 10-20 years. Ten years is short for ethnic civil wars. Twenty to thirty is about average for ethnic civil wars and some have been going on for about 60 years, now. As long as the opposing sides have a means to fight and a means to get new weapons, they'll keep fighting.

I agree. Iraq is frought with problems. When I mentioned about counter-insurgency wars lasting a lot longer than conventional wars, my point was more along the lines that just because the U.S. has been in Iraq for four years now doesn't mean the situation is hopeless, because such wars tend to have such problems which make them last long.

As I'm sure you know, there are many in the media who make comments like, "This war has lasted longer than WWII," as to imply that that automatically means the U.S. continuing in Iraq is utterly hopeless, which I disagree with right now, as I think it is still too early to make that call.
 
  • #289
I have to retract some of my earlier statement about the necessity of becoming an Iraqi citizen in order to change the way the country handles its affairs. In the case of Nazi Germany there was an overwhelming reason to invade and take over the machinations of that country because of the effects it was having on the countries it was invading. The way it was treating its own citizens also came into the mix of reasons to invade but only until much later into the war.

Admittedly Iraq did show a tendency to invade neighbouring countries when it attempted to invade Iran and did invade Kwait (sp).

Whether Iraq was instructed to make these invasions by foreign influences or not doesn't matter. The fact that Iraq made the final decision to invade shows lack of restraint and autonomy as well as a callous disregard for the sovereignty of other nations. However, after these attempts at invasion, Iraq was left to deteriorate under UN sanctions for 12 years with no further attempts at invasion or other violent means of influencing other nations. So, does the history of Iraq justify the US invasion and occupation of that country? Please note that 60 years and 50 years after the wars with Germany, Japan and N Korea the US still occupies strategic areas of those regions.
 
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  • #290
WheelsRCool said:
As I'm sure you know, there are many in the media who make comments like, "This war has lasted longer than WWII," as to imply that that automatically means the U.S. continuing in Iraq is utterly hopeless, which I disagree with right now, as I think it is still too early to make that call.

The media started making comments about the length of the war only 13 days after the war started.

But, then again, that's because of comments out of the White House and the Pentagon.

It is unknowable how long that conflict will last. It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.
Who's famous words were these?

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2003-03-31-then-and-now-usat_x.htm

The criticism about the decision to invade and how Iraq was handled after the invasion are warranted.

I do agree that a quick complete withdrawal might not be the best option, though. The picture has to be expanded and a reasonable solution for the entire Middle East situation has to take into account the likelihood of a failed Iraq. Until we have some idea of how we're going to at least limit the damage to Iraq, it would be a little rash to leave.

Proposed ideas haven't been very forthcoming. A few candidates might hint at the seriousness of the situation, but there aren't very many inspiring campaign slogans to be drawn from "We've stuck our hand in the meat grinder and I aim to get out of this situation with three fingers left on our hands."
 
  • #291
Ivan Seeking said:
How are they paying us to fight this war? Who and how much? I don't know about this.

A link would help.

The outcome of the first world war was the set of countries we have in the Middle East today: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, etc. Here we are 80 years later still fighting for this damned country. Why?
 
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  • #292
BobG said:
The media started making comments about the length of the war only 13 days after the war started.

But, then again, that's because of comments out of the White House and the Pentagon.

Who's famous words were these?

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2003-03-31-then-and-now-usat_x.htm
I think it is fair to say Rumsfeld was thinking about how long it would take to defeat Saddam Hussein's regime when he said that, and on that score he was about right. It appears he hadn't considered the 'after' as a significant problem, and on that point he was completely wrong.
 
  • #293
WheelsRCool said:
Because they're too anti-war... ...They (the European nations) will not go to war until they're literally being attacked on the homefront.

Defense forces should be used for defense, not to destroy other countries that pose no threat to the outside world.

I didn't know that people, who actually believe that US is defending itself by its actions in Iraq, exist at all anymore.
 
  • #294
jostpuur said:
Defense forces should be used for defense, not to destroy other countries that pose no threat to the outside world.

I didn't know that people, who actually believe that US is defending itself by its actions in Iraq, exist at all anymore.
Context? Please provide an an example of where the US has ever been defending itself by military action, aside from Imperial Japan/Pearl Harbor.
 
  • #295
jostpuur said:
Defense forces should be used for defense, not to destroy other countries that pose no threat to the outside world.

I didn't know that people, who actually believe that US is defending itself by its actions in Iraq, exist at all anymore.

The best defense is a good offense. You don't wait for the enemy to literally start attacking you before defending. For example, when Hitler began his massive military buildup right prior to WWII, Europe should have prepared and maybe told him, "You can do that, but if you start attacking anyone, be prepared for war." Or, "You aren't allowed to do that, so we're coming after you if you don't stop." Instead, they sought "peace" negotiations, then when Hitler began his attacks, they STILL sought peaceful negotiations. You try to appease the crocodile you just get eaten.

Overthrowing Saddam Hussein did not "destroy" Iraq. It has actually improved the livelihood there for many Iraqis, with overthrowing Saddam and now improving the infrastructure. The problem is they didn't have enough manpower to squash the terrorists flat-out. And yes Iraq did pose a threat to the outside world, a few threats really, but even those weren't needed to warrant invading Iraq. One, there was the WMD belief, which has turned out to be wrong. Second, at least according to Alan Greenspan, was the threat Saddam posed because of his control over a crucial oil route for ships, which if he shut down, could've severely hamstringed the world economy.

But furthermore was the belief that building a strong, Democratic Iraq would serve to help the U.S. in battling terrorism. Terrorism is a long-term war, one that will probably last at least a generation I would imagine. Saddam gave the U.S. plenty of reasons to invade, plus there was the fact toppling Saddam was made part of the U.S. foreign-policy agenda under Clinton. Until 9/11, the reasons still weren't enough to warrant invading, but after 9/11, it became apparent that setting up a strong country in the Middle East would be very helpful in battling terrorism.

But they had to mess that up as well. I am no military commander, but one would think it would be common sense that if you intend to invade a country and topple the authorities there, dictatorship or not, anarchy will break lose if you don't establish some police presence immediately after. Even the Nazis knew that when they "liberated" the Russian people from the Soviets in early WWII.

I believe the Generals had told Bush that they needed at least half a million troops to really invade and properly control Iraq, but that would've required upgrading the size of the military too much in too short a time. IMO they never should have shrank the ground forces down to the extent that they did.

Context? Please provide an an example of where the US has ever been defending itself by military action, aside from Imperial Japan/Pearl Harbor.

I'm assuming you mean examples from after WWII, well indirectly Korea and Vietnam were two primary examples, because they were to stop the spread of Communism. Korea stopped the spread to the South, and Vietnam, while probably the greatest strategic blunder of a war in history, did manage to forstall the spread of Communism to the other Southeast Asian nations long enough to allow them to build up their capitalist economies and develop their democratic governments.

The notion that the "Domino effect" in Asia simply "didn't happen" isn't quite true; it might well have happened, and was likely prevented by the U.S. intervention in Vietnam.

The U.S. could have crushed the North Vietnamese Communists though and ended the whole problem in 1965 if the politicians hadn't try to fight the war in a "peaceful" way.
 
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  • #296
Ivan Seeking said:
No one is talking about running - that is a strawman and an example of why I don't trust the Republicans anymore and probably never will again.

I consider Bill Richardson's stance on Iraq 'running'. Out in six months... no residual force.
That's pretty clear to me... no strawman.
 
  • #297
WheelsRCool said:
Overthrowing Saddam Hussein did not "destroy" Iraq. It has actually improved the livelihood there for many Iraqis, with overthrowing Saddam and now improving the infrastructure.

That's a lie. According to numerous interviews, things were bad in Iraq when Saddam was in power, and now things are even worse.

And yes Iraq did pose a threat to the outside world, a few threats really, but even those weren't needed to warrant invading Iraq. One, there was the WMD belief, which has turned out to be wrong. Second, at least according to Alan Greenspan, was the threat Saddam posed because of his control over a crucial oil route for ships, which if he shut down, could've severely hamstringed the world economy.

A country should not considered to be threat only because it controls its geographic area.
 
  • #298
jostpuur said:
That's a lie. According to numerous interviews, things were bad in Iraq when Saddam was in power, and now things are even worse.
That's a lie. According to numerous interviews, things are bad in Iraq now, but when Saddam was in power things were worse.

Ok maybe we could resort to actual evidence now instead of assertion.
 
  • #299
In the Saddam's time innocent civilians were not dying randomly in bombings like when US attacked. In the "Why we fight" document some Iraqis say very clearly how they lost basic security when the war started.

In Fallujah civilians had water and electricity cut off by US forces as part of the attack, and they seem to be having this problem still

http://internetcommunications.tmcnet.com/news/2007/11/21/3112955.htm

An Oxfam International report released in July found that 70 percent of Iraqis do not have access to safe drinking water.

In Saddam's time murder was still a crime, and murderers could be punished, but when Iraqis are being killed now, they cannot do anything. They cannot complain to anyone. They just have to accept, that they can be denied water and electricity, and that they can die.



In Saddam's time taxi driver's didn't lose their job because their cars were ran over by tanks.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1651789,00.html

Abuse worse than under Saddam, says Iraqi leader

The torture problem wasn't solved by the US forces, either.

I must admit I'm not expert on this, and I don't know big names, places and events that could be relevant. My knowledge has come from random documents and interviews. Besides, this is getting off topic, so I might as well promise to not continue. But I had to make clear that I'm not believing that propaganda WheelsRCool is throwing here. In fact he almost looks like he is getting paid for explaining that. If he's not, still he could be or should be getting paid.
 
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