Calculating Probability of Drawing Sword Card Last in 4 Repetitions

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the probability of drawing a sword card for the first time on the last repetition of an experiment involving card draws from multiple decks. The scope includes mathematical reasoning and probability theory.

Discussion Character

  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant describes an experiment where 3 cards are drawn from 3 normal decks, noting the cards pulled and repositioning them, and seeks to calculate the probability of drawing a sword card last.
  • The same participant presents their calculations for the total outcomes (N(Ω)) and favorable outcomes (N(A)), but expresses uncertainty about the correctness of their result.
  • Another participant requests clarification on the experiment, indicating that the initial description may be unclear.
  • A further response attempts to clarify terminology used in the original post, specifically regarding the meaning of "sword card" and the types of cards involved.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants appear to have differing levels of understanding regarding the experiment's setup and the terminology used. There is no consensus on the correctness of the probability calculation or the clarity of the experiment description.

Contextual Notes

The discussion highlights potential ambiguities in the experiment's description and the definitions of terms used, which may affect the interpretation of the probability calculation.

ParisSpart
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Repeat 4 times the following experiment:

We pull 3 cards from 3 normal decks (one sheet each), we note what some leaves pulled and repositioned every card in the deck from which we got.

What is the probability that we will see for first time any sword card exactly the last time you do the experiment?

N(Ω)= 52^12 and N(A)=39^9*(13^3+13^2*39+13*39^2) and i find this P(A)=N(A)/N(Ω)

but i the result its not correct what is the right way to solve this?
 
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ParisSpart said:
Repeat 4 times the following experiment:

We pull 3 cards from 3 normal decks (one sheet each), we note what some leaves pulled and repositioned every card in the deck from which we got.

What is the probability that we will see for first time any sword card exactly the last time you do the experiment?

N(Ω)= 52^12 and N(A)=39^9*(13^3+13^2*39+13*39^2) and i find this P(A)=N(A)/N(Ω)

but i the result its not correct what is the right way to solve this?

Your statements are unclear, particularly the underlined words.
 
it means that we note what cards we pulled from the decks and the second word means a club card (not heart , diamond or spade)
 
Could you clarify the experiment. I understand the description of what you are doing, but the question is unclear.
 
Last edited:

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