PeterDonis said:
By "brute force sampling" I did not mean an exhaustive search; of course that's not possible. I meant a search to some finite depth that is manageable in terms of the computational power available, and then applying heuristics to evaluate each branch of the search tree and pick the one with the highest estimated probability of winning.Which, as I understand it, is how the heuristics are developed that evaluate the branches of the finite search tree.
The big breakthrough came when they got machine learning to work. That means no programming. The system figures out its own heuristics, which may be inscrutable. This took about sixty years of development culminating in AlphaGo. But that wasn't all. AlphaGo began with a training set. Next was AlphaZero. No training set. It learns purely by competing with itself. AlphaZero became world chess champion after two or so days of this, then after five days or so defeated AlphaGo to become world Go champion. Now that's true machine learning.
To me, "heuristics that no one can explain" is a pretty good definition of intuition, or at least expertise.
PeterDonis said:
Go might be something of an outlier in that, as you describe it, the methods used by AI are similar to the methods used by human champions. AFAIK that was not the case in chess, where the methods used by, e.g., Deep Blue are nothing like the methods used by human champions. I would expect that is also true of incomplete information games like poker. Of course, humans might decide to adjust their methods of play after seeing what AIs do. Or humans might find the games less interesting when they realize that AIs can dominate them using methods that humans cannot adopt or don't find to be interesting.
Humans may adjust their play but it is like John Henry against the steam drill. It is notable that world chess champion Magnus Carlson has decided not to defend his title. Today his preparation would be working with an AI, memorizing moves as white. For example in the WC qualifying tournament a player with black was widely praised for responding to white's memorized best moves with nineteen consecutive optimal moves, eventually leading to a draw. (Since the memorized moves take practically no time the responder then had a time deficit, but not enough to sink his ship.) For a world championship this memorization is such a tedious task that Carlson decided it wasn't worth it.
Furthermore Carlson accused Hans Niemann of cheating because this man found the optimal moves too quickly. Carlson said there must have been a spy in his camp who informed the opponent what Carlson was working on so that the guy could memorize the optimal responses. Neimann responded that he had indeed memorized them by way of having deduced/inferred/guessed what Carlson would throw at him. No rule against that. It's possible. Neimann has sued for an absurd sum. If Carlson can't get any evidence otherwise he'll have to settle.
As for poker players they can just forget it. I'd have to say producing a winning poker system seems easy compared with Go. The AI can use game theory to find an optimal path. The next step is to take greater advantage of human players' deviations from said path. The best a poor boy can do against such a system is statistically break even. This would be no small achievement.
ChatGPT is the latest milestone. Expect it to improve rapidly, presumably by developing expertise in specialized domains.
Go continues unchanged. They are fortunate in that the space is so large that such memorization is unfeasible. Sure, they can't beat the steam drill, but so what? They can still compete against one another as they always have. Machines can lift much greater weights than can human weight lifters. This doesn't stop humans from doing it.