Can I recover from this poor performance in my 5th semester?

[madeamistake]

I currently attend a very large state school which is one of the best physics schools in the state, and I'd say ~top 50 in the USA, and I am working towards an honors bachelors of science in physics. I am in my 5th semester, which at my university means E/M I, CM I, Math Methods II, as my core classes.

My current predicament is I will very likely be getting C's in both E/M I and Math Methods II. Basically, I did so poorly on the first exams in both of the classes that I couldn't possibly get an A, and despite performing at or above average on all other exams/assignments, a C will almost definitely be the best that I can manage. I know how much upper-level classes matter in applications, so have I basically screwed myself? I know it may be unlikely, but let's say I was able to pull an A in E/M II next semester, as well as achieving A's in all my other courses which honestly seems likely, will that be enough to make up for the C?

With my projected grades for this semester, I am looking at a cGPA 3.53 and a mGPA of 3.51, which can increase to a max of 3.68 and 3.74 respectively. I also currently have a 3.7 in my honors classes. Next year I plan to complete my undergrad thesis as well. I have been doing research for 3 semesters, a winter, and a summer (and will continue through graduation meaning 6 semesters, 3 winters, and 2 summers), I've given one presentation at an APS conference, listed as an author on 3 papers, and I am confident I could get a great rec letter from my research advisor who is a well-known and respected member of his sub-field.

I am cognizant of the fact that I am already eliminated from the top-tier PhD programs in the US, but how about second tier? How would/should I explain this on grad school apps?

 

[Office_Shredder]

I think it you got A's next semester you're probably fine for a large swath of programs. Letters of recommendation are the most important part of any grad school application, and it sounds like you will be able to get a couple of those (hopefully not all your research experience is with the same person?) Improving your grades after struggling will show schools you can deal with a bit of adversity and recover from it.

Probably the best person to ask is your advisor. What does he think about what your application will look like?

If you haven't, I would also check with the teachers of these classes to make sure there's no way to recover from failing the first exam.

 

[madeamistake]

I think it you got A's next semester you're probably fine for a large swath of programs. Letters of recommendation are the most important part of any grad school application, and it sounds like you will be able to get a couple of those (hopefully not all your research experience is with the same person?) Improving your grades after struggling will show schools you can deal with a bit of adversity and recover from it.

Probably the best person to ask is your advisor. What does he think about what your application will look like?

If you haven't, I would also check with the teachers of these classes to make sure there's no way to recover from failing the first exam.

It is/will be all with the same person, why is this a bad thing? If it is just about getting enough letters of recommendations, I am sure I could get 3 different ones from different professors. Getting a not awful pay and names on papers is not something that is not often available to undergrads at my university, I don't want to lose this opportunity if I can help it. Plus, we've already started my undergrad thesis work, I feel like it's too late to switch.

I actually have asked him about the exam, the first exam is replaced with an average of the first exam and the final. The problem is that I did so poorly on the first exam an A is impossible. Technically a B is possible, but the course has no solid grade bounds because it's entirely dependent on class averages. To get a B I would need X amount of points above the class average on the final to get a B, but based on previous years averages on the final, this would amount to me getting a near-perfect score on the final. So while technically possible, highly unlikely.

 

[Choppy]

Try not to fixate so much on the GPA numbers. Okay, sure you're having a bad semester. But the real concern is why. What's different about this semester? And perhaps more importantly, what's your plan to address it?

 

[Office_Shredder]

It is/will be all with the same person, why is this a bad thing? If it is just about getting enough letters of recommendations, I am sure I could get 3 different ones from different professors. Getting a not awful pay and names on papers is not something that is not often available to undergrads at my university, I don't want to lose this opportunity if I can help it. Plus, we've already started my undergrad thesis work, I feel like it's too late to switch.

It's probably fine, certainly it sounds like you should just keep doing what you're doing. The more direct experience they have with you doing research, the better. It sounds like you're ahead of the curve anyway here. Having one really outstanding letter can be worth a lot.

I agree with choppy's question of figuring out how are you going to do better next semester, to make sure you can show this semester was a bit flukey.