Can You Outpredict Paul the Octopus in the 2014 PF World Cup League?

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Discussion Overview

The thread discusses predictions for the outcomes of matches in the 2014 World Cup, inviting participants to compare their forecasting abilities against Paul the Octopus. The scope includes voting on overall winners, runner-ups, and individual match outcomes, with a focus on points awarded for correct predictions.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Participants are encouraged to predict the winner and runner-up of the World Cup, with various individuals suggesting different teams such as Spain, Brazil, Germany, and Argentina.
  • Voting on individual match outcomes is also proposed, with points awarded for correct results and scores, leading to a variety of predictions for specific matches.
  • Some participants express confidence in their predictions, while others offer differing views on match outcomes, indicating a range of opinions on team performances.
  • Specific match predictions are shared, with participants providing their expected scores for various games, showcasing a diversity of forecasting strategies.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

There is no consensus on which team will win the World Cup, as multiple competing views are presented. Participants have differing predictions for individual matches as well.

Contextual Notes

Participants' predictions depend on personal assessments of team strengths and weaknesses, and the discussion reflects a variety of assumptions about match outcomes without resolving these uncertainties.

  • #151
micromass said:
Glad you enjoy it! I'm not sure about your switch to Germany, but we'll see how it turns out. :-p
Neither am I :smile:. Btw, congrats to your +2 against us all for the Nigeria - Bosnia and Herzegovina match :smile:.
 
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  • #152
All teams have played two matches now. A big congratulations to DennisN because he is currently leading! But it's not over yet...
 
  • #153
Damn, I missed the deadline (a little leeway please, micro?!)

Netherlands v Chile: 3 - 1
Australia v Spain: 0 - 2
Cameroon v Brazil: 1 - 3
Croatia v Mexico: 0 - 0
 
  • #154
Netherlands - Chile: 1 - 1
Australia - Spain: 0 - 2
Cameroon - Brazil: 0 - 1
Croatia - Mexico: 1 - 2
 
  • #155
Sorry, it wouldn't be fair to the ones who did made their prediction on times :frown:
 
  • #156
June 24th:

Italy v Uruguay: 1 - 2
Costa Rica - England: 2 - 0
Japan - Colombia: 0 - 1
Greece - Côte D'Ivoire: 1 - 2
 
  • #157
Logger said:
Netherlands - Chile: 1 - 1
Australia - Spain: 0 - 2
Didn't you mean?
Australia - Spain: 2 - 0
 
  • #158
micromass said:
Sorry, it wouldn't be fair to the ones who did made their prediction on times :frown:

Why? I don't get what the advantage is of a few hours, so long as the games haven't started...
 
  • #159
June 24th:

Italy v Uruguay: 1 - 2
Costa Rica - England: 3 - 1
Japan - Colombia: 1 - 2
Greece - Côte D'Ivoire: 1 - 2
 
  • #160
Predictions for the rest of the group games (since there is zero tolerance)

Grp C:
Greece v Ivory Coast: 0-2
Japan v Colombia: 2-0

Grp D:
Costa Rica v England: 1-3
Italy v Uruguay: 0-1

Grp E:
Ecuador v France: 1-4
Honduras v Switzerland: 0-3

Grp F:
Bosnia v Iran: 0-1
Nigeria v Argentina: 1-2

Grp G:
Portugal v Ghana: 2-1
USA v Germany: 1-3

Grp H:
Algeria v Russia: 1-0
South Korea v Belgium: 0-2
 
  • #161
June 25th:

[strike]Ecuador v France: 0-1
Honduras v Switzerland: 0-1
Bosnia v Iran: 1-0
Nigeria v Argentina: 0-2[/strike]

Ecuador v France: 0-1
Honduras v Switzerland: 0-1
Bosnia v Iran: 0-1
Nigeria v Argentina: 1-2
 
  • #162
June 25th:

Ecuador v France: 0-3
Honduras v Switzerland: 0-2
Bosnia v Iran: 2-1
Nigeria v Argentina: 1-4
 
  • #163
25th June:
Nigeria - Argentina: 1 - 3
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Iran: 1 - 1
Honduras - Switzerland: 1 - 0
Ecuador - France: 0 - 4
 
  • #164
25th June:
Nigeria - Argentina: 1 - 3
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Iran: 1 - 1
Honduras - Switzerland: 2 - 1
Ecuador - France: 1 - 3
 
  • #165
What do you guys think for double the amount of points for the matches of the round of 16 and later?
 
  • #166
micromass said:
What do you guys think for double the amount of points for the matches of the round of 16 and later?
Fine by me. Would be exciting :smile:.
 
  • #167
micromass said:
What do you guys think for double the amount of points for the matches of the round of 16 and later?

That can give a chance to the people who are way below in the rank, and make the competition more exciting, but it might be unfair for DennisN.

DennisN said:
Fine by me. Would be exciting :smile:.

Even though he says this :smile:
 
  • #168
montadhar said:
That can give a chance to the people who are way below in the rank, and make the competition more exciting, but it might be unfair for DennisN.

Or it might help DennisN get even more points!
 
  • #169
Given my low standing in the group stage, I'm all for it!

I had a similar slow start 4 years ago. I consistently underestimated the scoring in the group stage. I eventually won based on doing very well in the knockout stage. My only saving grace last time around was that we missed the first few days of the group stages. We didn't do that this time. DennisN's lead is quite formidable.


BTW, just to make it clear, the scoring in the knockout stage is based on the score at the end of regulation time if there's a clear winner after 90 minutes+stoppage time, or the score at the end of extra time if the regulation time score is a tie. A game that is tied at the end of extra time is a tie. What happens during the penalty kicks to determine which team advances doesn't count as far as PF World Cup Futbol League is concerned.

Note that this how FIFA determines the final score of these games. Those games that remain tied after the end of 90+30 minutes are officially scored as ties. The kicks from the mark just determine which team advances (or which team wins the trophy).
 
  • #170
montadhar said:
That can give a chance to the people who are way below in the rank, and make the competition more exciting, but it might be unfair for DennisN.
Yes, it's a little bit unfair, but to me it's the excitement (and chance) of the competition in itself that is fun, so I'm perfectly fine with doubling the points for matches like suggested.

micromass said:
Or it might help DennisN get even more points!
Exactly. I WANT MORE POINTS!
pacman1.gif


And here's my 25th June predictions:

Nigeria - Argentina: 1 - 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Iran: 2 - 1
Honduras - Switzerland: 0 - 2
Ecuador - France: 1 - 3
 
Last edited:
  • #171
June 24th:

Italy v Uruguay: 1 - 2
Costa Rica - England: 0 - 1
Japan - Colombia: 0 - 1
Greece - Côte D'Ivoire: 1 - 2

25th June:
Nigeria - Argentina: 0 - 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Iran: 1 - 1
Honduras - Switzerland: 1 - 1
Ecuador - France: 1 - 2
 
Last edited:
  • #172
My scores for 23rd June were not added (Post 154 on thread). Not sure if it was because the date was not written down on the top.Can you have a look and if its because of the date then that is fine.(edit)I think I may have missed the deadline.
 
  • #173
Logger said:
My scores for 23rd June were not added (Post 154 on thread). Not sure if it was because the date was not written down on the top.Can you have a look and if its because of the date then that is fine.(edit)I think I may have missed the deadline.

Yes, you missed the deadline

Logger said:
Nigeria - Argentina: - 2

What is this score?
 
  • #174
25th June:
Nigeria - Argentina: 0 - 2


Thanks for the update and the spot on my error above. Great stuff on the work you have put into the game.
 
  • #175
25th June:

Nigeria - Argentina: 1 - 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Iran: 1 - 1
Honduras - Switzerland: 1 - 2
Ecuador - France: 1 - 2

Edit: change that to
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Iran: 0 - 3
 
  • #176
26th June:
Portugal - Ghana: 0 - 1
USA - Germany: 1 - 3
Korea Republic - Belgium: 0 - 3
Algeria - Russia: 1 - 0
 
  • #177
June 26th:

Portugal v Ghana: 1 - 2
USA v Germany: 1 - 1
Korea Republic - Belgium: 0 - 2
Algeria - Russia: 0 - 1
 
  • #178
micromass said:
26th June:
Portugal - Ghana: 0 - 1
USA - Germany: 1 - 3
Booo!
 
  • #179
Some tough decisions for tomorrow, but I'll go for:

26th June:
Portugal - Ghana: 1 - 2
USA - Germany: 1 - 2 (sorry - please note I really hope for US :smile:)
Korea Republic - Belgium: 0 - 2
Algeria - Russia: 2 - 1

Matterwave gained +2 against us all for the Greece - Côte D'Ivoire match, that's fun :smile:.
 
  • #180
DennisN said:
Portugal - Ghana: 1 - 2
USA - Germany: 1 - 2 (sorry - please note I really hope for US :smile:)
That's an acceptable outcome (just barely) for the US. That would put the US and Ghana tied in total points (4), tied in goal differential (0), tied in goals for (5). The next tie breaker is head-to-head, and since the US beat Ghana, the US advances to the round of 16.

My boo! to micromass a couple of posts back was his prediction would have Ghana advancing instead of the US.

Ghana advances if
  • Germany defeats the USA, AND
  • Ghana defeats Portugal, AND
    • The margin by which Germany defeats USA plus the margin by which Ghana defeats Portugal is three or more OR
    • The margin by which Germany defeats USA plus the margin by which Ghana defeats Portugal is two AND
      • Ghana scores at least two more goals against Portugal than the USA scores against Germany.

Portugal advances if
  • Germany defeats the USA, AND
  • Portugal defeats Ghana, AND
    • The margin by which Germany defeats USA plus the margin by which Portugal defeats Ghana is six or more OR
    • The margin by which Germany defeats USA plus the margin by which Portugal defeats Ghana is five AND
      • Portugal scores at least three more goals against Ghana than the USA scores against Germany OR
      • Portugal scores two more goals against Ghana than the USA scores against Germany AND
        • Portugal wins the coin toss against the USA.

The odds of the US advancing are pretty good. Nate Silverman (who normally predicts elections with amazing accuracy) currently puts the US as having a 76% chance of advancing.

There are some bizarre scenarios by which Germany goes home. For example, if the US defeats Germany 2-0 and Ghana defeats Portugal 4-0 then it's bye-bye, Germany. FiveThirtyEight puts the odds of this and similar outcomes as an extremely unlikely 0.3%.
 

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