shmoe
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Canute said:Ok, I see that. There is something special about 6 to me, but that's just because of the way I've approached all this. As long as the modulus is a multiple of 6 the deal is the same.
The modulus doesn't need to be a multiple of 6 either!
Canute said:I'm not sure about this. I think it can be shown that the converse must be true infinitely often - although I cannot actually show it yet. At least, I'm, not simply suggesting that I cannot find a reason that these numbers must have such a divisor. Rather, I'm suggesting there are reasons why infinitely often they will not have such divisors.
That was just how your statements (3) and (4) looked to me.
It may very well be that N+/-1 are primes infinitely often. It may also be the case that the N+1's are prime infinitely often and the N-1's are prime infinitely often yet there are only finitely many twin primes to be had this way (like what we can say about 30n+11 and 30n+13 for example).
Canute said:Would it be true to say that given an infinite number of spins a roulette wheel must output zero infinitely many times? Or, can an infinite number of spins produce a finite number of zeros? The latter seems counterintuitive to me.
I'm ok with that. But what about where there are an infinite number of trials? Do we just take the limit as the outcome?
You can't spin a roulette wheel infinitely many times
Canute said:I've probably missed your point, but as far I can tell this doesn't seem to address my question. If, as I think you said, the probability of N+/-1 being a twin prime necessarily goes to zero as P increases, then doesn't this mean that there are not infinitely many twin primes? (Although, I suppose there could be an infinity of twin primes not at N+/-1. Is this what you meant by saying it was not a complete argument?) On the other hand, if this probability does not go to zero (or never reaches its limit) then wouldn't this mean there is no highest twin prime?
By 'not a complete argument', I mean it makes some leaps that haven't been justified, and is possibly not true. These kinds of probabilistic arguments, like Hardy&Littlewoods for twin primes, are not proofs. However, they can give results that look suprisingly accurate. The conjectured density of twin primes has held up to the actual data quite remarkably. In the case of N+/-1, there is much less data to go on, but tests up to something like P<120,000 do support the suggested result (N(P) gets unworkably huge fast, so the data is more limited), and the assumptions that can't be proven rigorously are still very 'reasonable'.
Let me put what the 'probability goes to zero' means in more precise terms. Let's just consider the sequence of perfect squares, 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, ... Let S(x) be the number of perfect squares less than or equal to x, so S(10)=3, S(19)=4, and so on. We actually have S(x)=[sqrt(x)], where [] is the floor function, i.e. S(19)=[sqrt(19)]=[4.358...]=4.
The ratio of squares to the total number of integers less than x is S(x)/x, considering x an integer for simplicity. If we randomly select an integer from 1, 2, 3, ..., x, the probability we get a perfect square is simply S(x)/x. Now S(x)/x=[sqrt(x)]/x~1/sqrt(x) (when y is very large, [y] is pretty close to y), so we can in a sense say the probability an integer less than x is a perfect square is 1/sqrt(x). Since 1/sqrt(x)->0 as x->infinity, S(x)/x->0 as x-> infinity as well. Hence we are justified in saying "the probability an integer less than x is a perfect square goes to zero as x goes to infinity", the true meaning behind this probability statement is in behavior of S(x)/x.
Now, even though the density of the squares goes to zero (or their probability if you prefer), there are still infinitely many of them. So even if we could prove the density of the twin primes goes to zero, it would not tell us that there are finitely many of them- you can have an infinite sequence whose density tails off and approaches zero.Derbyshire's book was trying to explain some very complicated maths without using much maths. A healthy knowledge of complex analysis is really needed to appreciate and understand the Zeta function. Something like Hardy and Wright's Number theory text covers elementary number theory. 'elementary' in this sense means no use of anything outside a calculus of one variables course, and in reality you don't need a background beyond high school math to understand most of it. Same goes for most number theory texts with 'elementary' in the title. If you haven't already, you should give some a shot.
I'll talk about number theory all day, I'm not bored yet.
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