Card Hand probabilities: Discrete Math

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating probabilities related to drawing aces from a 5-card hand in a standard 52-card deck. Participants explore various conditional probabilities based on different scenarios involving aces, including having at least one ace, specific aces, and combinations of red aces.

Discussion Character

  • Homework-related, Mathematical reasoning, Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents a series of probability questions regarding the likelihood of having at least two aces given certain conditions.
  • Another participant suggests calculating the probability of having at least two aces by summing the probabilities of having exactly 2, 3, or 4 aces.
  • A participant questions how to calculate the probability of the union of events in this context.
  • Another reply clarifies that since distinct hands are being enumerated, the probabilities can be added directly for the case of having more than one ace.
  • A later post raises a concern about the relationship between having one red ace and the condition of having at least two aces, indicating that these events are not necessarily dependent.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the approach to calculate probabilities for distinct cases, but there is uncertainty regarding the relationship between certain conditions, particularly concerning the intersection of having one ace and the requirement of having at least two aces.

Contextual Notes

Participants express uncertainty about how to derive certain probabilities, particularly those involving conditional probabilities and unions of events. There are also discussions about whether to consider "at least" versus "exactly" in their calculations.

SammC
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Homework Statement


In the following you are given a 5-card hand from a 52 card deck.
a) given that you have at least one ace, what is the probability you have at least 2 aces?
b) given that you have the ace of diamonds, what is the probability that you have another ace?
c) given that you have a red ace, what is the probability you have another ace?
d) Suppose you select a card from your hand at random and it is an ace. What is the probability you have another ace.


Homework Equations


pr(not a) = 1 - pr(a)
pr(A given B) = Pr(A and B) / Pr(B)


The Attempt at a Solution



C(X,Y) is X choose Y here.

Pr(A): The chance of drawing AT LEAST one Ace is 1 - C(48,5)/C(52,5) =~ .6588

Pr(B): The probability of having at least 2 aces: ?
Pr(A and B): ?

pr(C): That you have the ace of diamonds in a 5 card hand is 1-C(51,5)/C(52,5) =~ .096
Pr(C and B):?

pr(D): That you have at least one red ace in a 5 card hand: 1-C(50,5)/C(52,5) =~ .1848
(im not sure if i want the probability of having exactly 1 red ace, or at least one)
Pr(D and B):?


Finding all of the "?" probabilities should allow me to calculate problems a-c, but i really don't know how to find PR(X AND Y) with these problems, nor do I know how to get the probability of having at least two aces.
 
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Probability of having at least two aces...
Hmmm...
You can calculate the probability of having exactly 4 aces + exactly 3 aces + exactly 2 aces.

Pr(4) = C(4,4)C(48,1)/C(52,5)
Pr(3) = C(4,3)C(48,2)/C(52,5)
Pr(2) = C(4,2)C(48,3)/C(52,5)
Add 'em up.
 
Thanks, that makes sense.

How do you go about getting the probability of the union though?
 
Since you are enumerating distinct hands (no hand with exactly 2 aces is a hand with exactly one ace) you can simply add the probabilities.
Pr(x>1)= Pr(x=2) + Pr(x=3) + Pr(x=4).
 
what about pr(1 ace red AND at least 2 aces) one is not necessarily in the other in this case, same with 1 ace diamond
 

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