Ceres/Mars as manufacturing outposts (analytic exercise)

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the potential of Ceres and Mars as manufacturing outposts for future human exploration and settlement in space. Participants explore the advantages and disadvantages of each location, focusing on aspects such as water availability, gravity, radiation exposure, and cost implications for missions.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants argue that Ceres is unique in the inner solar system for retaining water, while others contend that Mars has significant amounts of frozen water, potentially more than Ceres.
  • It is suggested that Ceres' lower gravity makes it a more cost-effective option for launching missions compared to Mars, which has a higher gravity well that increases fuel costs.
  • Some participants highlight that solar energy collectors would be more efficient on Mars, producing four times more energy, which could offset some costs associated with missions to Mars.
  • Concerns are raised about radiation exposure on both Ceres and Mars, with some arguing that Ceres may offer better protection due to its distance from the Sun and lower radiation levels.
  • There is a discussion about the need for heavily shielded spacecraft for missions to both Ceres and Mars, with differing opinions on the feasibility and cost implications of such shielding.
  • Some participants emphasize the importance of studying potential life on Mars before manned missions, while others argue that current missions have avoided the most promising locations for finding life.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express multiple competing views regarding the advantages of Ceres versus Mars, particularly concerning water availability, cost of missions, and radiation protection. The discussion remains unresolved, with no consensus reached on which location is definitively better for establishing a manufacturing outpost.

Contextual Notes

Participants note various assumptions regarding the availability of resources, the efficiency of solar energy production, and the implications of gravity on mission costs. There are also unresolved questions about the potential for life on Mars and the effectiveness of radiation shielding.

  • #31
mfb said:
@marcus: an Earth orbit is certainly an interesting target for all sorts of materials. If you find some cheaper way than rocket launches from Earth, it is interesting.
WOW! Thanks for pointing that out!
I was thinking, oh well, the Earth has plenty of resources. Ceres would never be selling chemical/material products to Earth.
But maybe that's short-sighted. Maybe Earth orbit would be a possible customer for a Ceres chemical industry.

I don't feel able to evaluate that possibility and do the numbers based on realistic assumptions, so I can't pursue it. Just have to keep the possibility in mind, avoid dismissing it.

At the moment some questions in my mind are:
Does Ceres have nitrogen---N-containing minerals, ammonium compounds?
Does it have a range of metals, in surface rubble, or accessible in other places?
Presumably it does have water, and some compounds of carbon---that seems fair to assume.

Where might there eventually be a market for Ceres water? It is probably some of the cheapest water in the inner solar system. Johnny Morales made this point in post #2 of this thread. But what sort of customers might there be? And where might they be located?
 
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  • #32
Not sure if it was already mentioned, but Ceres does have the added benefit of having launch window periods at a little more than a year over Mars' 26 months. Launches can be done at nearly twice the frequency for Ceres, even if it is double the distance of Mars. No matter what, any current mission will have to deal with leaving Earth to get to its destination, or vice versa. This huge difference in launch windows may play a big role in maintaining any sort of mining/manufacturing base on Ceres versus immediately colonizing Mars.
 
  • #33
Where is the point in having more frequent launch windows if the trip between Ceres and Earth takes as long as the time between Mars launch windows (26 months)?
Only in rare occasions (Mars launch window closed recently, Ceres launch window coming soon) Ceres would be "faster" to reach.
 

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