Hi everyone,(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

I was wondering if anyone could help me better understand dependent probabilities. I am interested in working out the daily chance of rain given the hourly chance's of rain.

Historically I know that on a given hour the chance of rain is 0.1. My first approach to work out the day chance of rain was:

P(rain during some time in the day) = 1-P(no rain during any hour)

= 1-(1-p)^24

= 0.9

However I know that the chance of rain on a given day is 0.4, significantly lower. I released hourly rain must be depended on other hours so. So for two hours I would do:

P(rain hour 1 or rain hour 2) = P(rain hour 1)+P(rain hour 2) - p(rain 1 and rain 2)

However doing this for 24 hours gets messy very fast.

Any ideas of how I could go about solving this sort of problem?

Thanks Matt

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# Chance of daily rain from hourly rain probability

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