News Chinese "weather" balloon shoot-down over US

[boneh3ad]

How do we know this? I don't mean to be stupid here but if they were nt noticed........?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/07/china-spy-balloon-intelligence/

 

[hutchphd]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/07/china-spy-balloon-intelligence/

“For those who have a sanguine view about the actual intelligence collection capabilities of this balloon, I think they’re underestimating the creative ways the PLA might use it either for intelligence and surveillance purposes, or as a platform for weapons,” said Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), chairman of the Select Committee on China, who was commenting on public remarks made by Pentagon officials over the weekend."

TYhe sky is falling
I'll worry about the serious stuff, thanks. They are building and occupying islands in the China Sea and salivating over Taiwan while jailing patriots in
Hong Kong.
/

 

[pinball1970]

I'm banking on it being a weather balloon blown off course.

 

[berkeman]

I'll worry about the serious stuff, thanks. They are building and occupying islands in the China Sea and salivating over Taiwan while jailing patriots in
Hong Kong.

(same reminder about not venturing too much into politics in this thread... thank you)

 

[WWGD]

They may have just used this as a training exercise for the new plane. If China is going to send you target practice, you take it.

Ive heard some Chinese sources claim this is not the first such balloon, they've sent. Rather, they (claim to have) sent a few towards the US during the last few years, and they've sent two , one each to Colombia and to Venezuela. But they may have just been trying to divert.

 

[WWGD]

First, some bad news for Don. Nobody in DC gives a hoot about Kansas. They call it "flyover country". I suspect a good number of them think the whole state is in black and white. Whatever the rationale, it was not "protecting Kansans."

I agree that shooting it down over water means you don
t have to deal with lookie-loos, or "yahoos" as they have been called upthread, but if you shoot it down over water, then it's over water,. Recovery is not so easy, especially if you want important litte tiny parts.

<snip>

As far as a dangerous payload, the Chinese are not stupid enough to do that.

The Chinese, or Xi? Who'd openly disagree with Xi?

 

[BillTre]

The Chinese, or Xi? Who'd openly disagree with Xi?

Its a huge bureaucracy, control changes do not always deeply penetrate established procedures.
It looks to me to be a stupid mistake on the part of the Chinese.
Xi wanted to play nice with the US diplomatically, the the big Chinese org didn't respond well to the goal changes.
They are trying to cover things up now with different signals for different audiences.

At least they are better organized than the Russians.

 

[Vanadium 50]

They were not noticed in the Trump and early Biden administrations.

Do we know that? All we know is that there wasn't an incident reported in more or less real time.

We also don't know what the parameters were. A 12 foot balloon at 160,000 feet is noth the same as a 120 foot balloon at 60,000 feet.

 

[Vanadium 50]

At least they are better organized than the Russians.

Talk about damning with faint praise!

 

[strangerep]

It only shows whom they sent to war: unexperienced, naive teenagers.

Hmm. We have an increasing problem here with gangs of a-hole teenagers. Can we send them over to fight for the Russians? Please?

 

[pinball1970]

I'm banking on it being a weather balloon blown off course.

Tongue in cheek @BillTre Something to counter the nuclear thing.

 

[discoversci]

This whole thing is like watching Oprah show or maybe Saturday night live TOP GUN chasing a mice. That is, if Raptors still work ? People, get over it. It was a weather balloon

 

[pinball1970]

footage of the air strike

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tion-after-it-shot-down-high-altitude-balloon

 

[WWGD]

This whole thing is like watching Oprah show or maybe Saturday night live TOP GUN chasing a mice. That is, if Raptors still work ? People, get over it. It was a weather balloon

BHow do you know it's all it was? Nations don't usually fly " weather "balloons ( how do you know what was actually inside of the balloon) incognito past each other.

 

[Rive]

I'm banking on it being a weather balloon blown off course.

Based on the solar panels, it was prepared for (very) long time operation => international issues should have been considered and handled. At the very least: proper tracking and forewarning, international monitoring...

Even if it was some scientific equipment, with all that silence it's a serious incident anyway.

 

[pinball1970]

Based on the solar panels, it was prepared for (very) long time operation => international issues should have been considered and handled. At the very least: proper tracking and forewarning, international monitoring...

Even if it was some scientific equipment, with all that silence it's a serious incident anyway.

As I said to Bill it was a poor attempt at humour to soften the tone.

Talk of Nuclear warheads, silos and “first strike” get me twitchy.

I did not know spy balloons were even a thing till this.

“Wrinkles in Time” George mentions balloons, in the Arctic? Data on the CMBR but a while since I read it.

I have a great contact regarding this so I will get his view and feedback.

If it is a genuine weather project or part of science operation then he is more likely to know than not.
Only just thought of him.

 

[Rive]

it was a poor attempt at humour to soften the tone.

Well ... there are indeed some very dumb aspects of this incident from all sides what makes the current harsh tone of officials a rightful target for jokes ...

 

[hutchphd]

It only shows whom they sent to war: unexperienced, naive teenagers.

Hmm. We have an increasing problem here with gangs of a-hole teenagers. Can we send them over to fight for the Russians? Please?

Best Russian prisoner employer. Give them a call

 

[Astronuc]

the core of China’s digital intelligence collection system remains an armada of more than 260 satellites dedicated to intelligence and surveillance. The balloons, however, may offer some advantages over satellites because they can hover over areas and may produce clearer images, according to U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/push-intelligence-edge-chinas-military-125405406.html

Chinese military scientists have been studying new materials and techniques to make balloons more durable, more steerable and harder to detect and track. People’s Liberation Army researchers have also been testing balloons as potential aerial platforms from which to fire weapons.

Even in this hitherto obscure corner of military innovation, China sees big stakes. Its military researchers warn that rival governments, above all the United States, could beat them at their own game. They especially worry about dominance in “near space,” the inhospitable layer of the atmosphere between 12 and 62 miles above earth.

The are numerous security concerns evidenced in this event.

 

[Vanadium 50]

We have an increasing problem here with gangs of a-hole teenagers. Can we send them over to fight for the Russians? Please?

Isn't it more effective to have half fight on each side?

 

[Frabjous]

Nena’s take

 

[berkeman]

Interesting timeline from CNN:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/08/politics/chinese-spy-balloon-timeline-lack-urgent-action/index.html

Scrambling fighter jets

On January 28, when the balloon entered US airspace near Alaska, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, sent up fighter jets to make a positive identification, according to defense officials, reflecting a subtle shift in urgency.

Still, officials tracking the balloon saw little reason to be alarmed. At the time, according to US officials, this balloon was expected to sail over Alaska and continue on a northern trajectory that intelligence and military officials could track and study.

Instead, shortly after the balloon crossed over land, it alarmed officials by making its unexpected turn south.

On January 31, the balloon had crossed out of Canada and into the Lower 48. And concerns that the balloon had been sent by Beijing explicitly to spy on the mainland US were confirmed when NORAD observed the balloon “loitering” over sensitive military facilities, multiple sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN.

How much control China exerted over the balloon’s path remains a matter of debate. Although the balloon was equipped with propellers and a rudder that allowed it to turn “like a sailboat,” according to the senior US official, it largely rode the jet stream – one of the reasons US officials were able to predict its path across the US in advance.

 

[Astronuc]

Solar panels and signal intelligence/surveillance. Of course.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-spy-balloon-sought-secret-162313357.html

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pentagon-chinas-conducted-spy-balloon-203121609.html

 

[gmax137]

@Vanadium 50
Like the Jets and the Sharks?

 

[Vanadium 50]

When you're a Jet you're a Jet all the way.

 

[discoversci]

BHow do you know it's all it was? Nations don't usually fly " weather "balloons ( how do you know what was actually inside of the balloon) incognito past each other.

Chines people are not stupid to send their spy equipment on such a voyage. Too risky if it gets off course. Besides, they have over 300 satellites, so they have surely scanned the whole US territory by now. Many times over. And what do you thing US equipment (i.e. satellites) are doing up there ? Having parties ? Come on... Everybody is spying on everyone. Just a fact.

 

[Rive]

Everybody is spying on everyone. Just a fact.

Reminds me of the old joke about peeing in the swimming pool.
You know, even if it's a bit fuzzy thing, doing it from the jump board is kind of different...

 

[Frabjous]

Come on... Everybody is spying on everyone. Just a fact.

A lot of bad can be justified with this class of argument.

 

[pinball1970]

Chines people are not stupid to send their spy equipment on such a voyage. Too risky if it gets off course. Besides, they have over 300 satellites, so they have surely scanned the whole US territory by now. Many times over. And what do you thing US equipment (i.e. satellites) are doing up there ? Having parties ? Come on... Everybody is spying on everyone. Just a fact.

I hope the Americans are thinking like that but I really doubt it.

A satellite orbiting the earth is not in US air space, checkout the US list here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prohibited_airspace

Also lots of Chinese Satellites yes but they cannot hold a position over one spot like a balloon can is what has been pointed out.

The debris from the balloon has been recovered now so lets see.

 

[boneh3ad]

I hope the Americans are thinking like that but I really doubt it.

A satellite orbiting the earth is not in US air space, checkout the US list here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prohibited_airspace

Also lots of Chinese Satellites yes but they cannot hold a position over one spot like a balloon can is what has been pointed out.

The debris from the balloon has been recovered now so lets see.

They already released the preliminary findings. Just like they thought, tons of SIGINT equipment for measuring and triangulating signals. A propeller with a rudder. It's a spy balloon.