News Chinese "weather" balloon shoot-down over US

[Ivan Seeking]

I wonder what it is?

My first guess is a British pig-spy balloon

 

[kyphysics]

Which could be tricky. While you are jamming it and collecting information about it, hopefully it/or they (with other means) aren't gathering information about how you jam signals and gather information, which resources you use to do it with, and where those resources are based. Further, you hope it isn't gathering information about your strategy to prevent them from being able to gather information about how you gather information.

Two questions:

(i.) How would spying be done if these were actual spy balloons? Are they video recording things? Audio recording? At what distance could such presumed spying be done?
(ii.) Wouldn't a spy balloon seem too obvious of a vehicle to use? These things are quite big and attention-attracting, no?

 

[pinball1970]

Two questions:

(i.) How would spying be done if these were actual spy balloons? Are they video recording things? Audio recording? At what distance could such presumed spying be done?
(ii.) Wouldn't a spy balloon seem too obvious of a vehicle to use? These things are quite big and attention-attracting, no?

I. Ping images / recordings to a satellite?
2. More interesting. It was very large so how did it slip under the radar? Very fast moving objects like jets, missiles would be a priority for defence systems @Astranut. How do those same systems treat a flock of birds? A glider? Private plane? A big balloon ?EDIT:I googled and there lot of info on how they deal with different objects and “clutter”

The link, it is a bit technical for me. @Ivan Seeking can help?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar“Clutter refers to radio frequency (RF) echoes returned from targets which are uninteresting to the radar operators.

Such targets include natural objects such as ground, sea, and when not being tasked for meteorological purposes, precipitation (such as rain, snow or hail),

sand storms, animals (especially birds), atmospheric turbulence, and other atmospheric effects, such as ionosphere reflections, meteor trails, and hail spike.

Clutter may also be returned from man-made objects such as buildings and, intentionally, by radar countermeasures such as chaff.”

 

[sophiecentaur]

I was kind of hoping we could figure a way to just quietly deflate the balloon and catch it on the way down, or as it hit the water. So that it would just disappear, to be studied at our leisure, with everyone wondering if we had it or not.

My thoughts too. Regular cannon rounds could be placed into the envelope which would deflate and act as a parachute. Th terminal velocity would be a lot lower than for the payload itself, I'd have thought.

Then what about the other 'flying objects'? They could be downed easily with cannon fire. A missile sounds like a sledgehammer to crack a walnut. The propulsion method is interesting. Its altitude seems very high for a quadcopter. If 'they' have a good propulsion system then the West could be in a poor situation.

 

[fresh_42]

The general adept at defense hides in the deepest caves of the Earth; he who is skillful in attack descends from the highest heights of heaven.

 

[hutchphd]

 

[Ivan Seeking]

. Air Force General Glen VanHerck set the internet ablaze when he left open the possibility that the multiple flying objects shot down over North American air space by American fighter jets on Super Bowl weekend could be anything, including UFOs related to extra-terrestrial activity.

Specifically asked whether the downed objects could have extraterrestrial origins — aliens, that is — VanHerck replied: “I’ll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out. I haven’t ruled out anything.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u...pc=U531&cvid=d638959fb41949f4b8a7aee95c6606c9

 

[Ivan Seeking]

. Air Force General Glen VanHerck set the internet ablaze when he left open the possibility that the multiple flying objects shot down over North American air space by American fighter jets on Super Bowl weekend could be anything, including UFOs related to extra-terrestrial activity.

Specifically asked whether the downed objects could have extraterrestrial origins — aliens, that is — VanHerck replied: “I’ll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out. I haven’t ruled out anything.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u...pc=U531&cvid=d638959fb41949f4b8a7aee95c6606c9

Just FYI:

General Glen D. VanHerck is Commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM). NORAD conducts aerospace warning, aerospace control, and maritime warning in the defense of North America. USNORTHCOM partners to conduct homeland defense, civil support, and security cooperation to defend and secure the United States and its interests.
https://www.defense.gov/About/Biographies/Biography/Article/2323163/glen-d-vanherck/

 

[gmax137]

So it is ironic that in 1947 the gummint sought to prevent panic by claiming the downed UFO was a weather balloon, but today they claim the foreign "weather" balloon might really be an alien UFO...

 

[Vanadium 50]

I think it is a weather balloon. The Chinese wanted to know "weather" the US would detect it and "weather" it would then shoot it down.

 

[sophiecentaur]

So it is ironic that in 1947 the gummint sought to prevent panic by claiming the downed UFO was a weather balloon, but today they claim the foreign "weather" balloon might really be an alien UFO...

We have to assume that at least one part of at least one of the 'unidentified objects' will be / has been found. Even with no maker's ID, there will be mass spec evidence of Terrestrial or Extra Terrestrial Origin. The conspiracy theorists really need to be put to bed. That should include release of all that 1947 stuff too. (Makes you wonder, dunnit?)

 

[pinball1970]

Just FYI:

General Glen D. VanHerck is Commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM). NORAD conducts aerospace warning, aerospace control, and maritime warning in the defense of North America. USNORTHCOM partners to conduct homeland defense, civil support, and security cooperation to defend and secure the United States and its interests.
https://www.defense.gov/About/Biographies/Biography/Article/2323163/glen-d-vanherck/

Also features in this article in the Guardian, summarizes where they are.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/13/biden-ufo-shot-down-michigan-flying-objects

Was the push to investigate these objects anything to do with the NASA project? I cannot access the full tweet.

"The Florida Republican Marco Rubio, vice-chairperson of the US Senate intelligence committee, claimed that unidentified aircraft had operated “routinely” over restricted American airspace for years.

“This is why I pushed to take this seriously & created a permanent [unidentified aerial phenomenon] taskforce two years ago,” he said in a tweet."

EDIT: Anyone else keeping up with the different terms and potential acronyms?

UFO Unidentified Flying Object
UAP Unidentified Arial Phenomena
UAO Unidentified Arial Object
UOO Unidentified Octagonal Object
HAO High Altitude Object
UA Unidentified Aircraft

Security briefings must get complicated.

 

[fresh_42]

 

[Astronuc]

Tue, February 14, 2023 at 8:39 PM EST

U.S. intelligence officials were tracking the spy balloon that was shot down earlier this month since it lifted off from the south coast of China, U.S. officials said Tuesday.

According to U.S. officials, after takeoff, the spy balloon drifted east in the direction of Guam and Hawaii and then went north to Alaska and entered U.S. airspace on Jan. 28. Given the path, it's possible that the balloon was blown off course by weather, but U.S. officials said that once it came south over the continental United States, it was being controlled by China.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chines...ligence-tracked-it-soon-after-liftoff-course/

 

[Vanadium 50]

"The direction of Guam and Hawaii"? They are nowhere near each other.. That's like "the direction of New York city and London", except that they are closer.

 

[pinball1970]

Hello, what's all this now?

This is quite a large thread so excuse me if this already been addressed.
This gives a nice explanation

Some TIL stuff in there for me at least. When you get to 8.30 the video discusses ESA laser technology on the ground with respect to space debris.
On topic again, my contact finally got back and said it (big balloon) was not a weather balloon but could have been a stratospheric research balloon.

 

[nsaspook]

https://aviationweek.com/defense-sp...y-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf
Hobby Club’s Missing Balloon Feared Shot Down By USAF
The community is also nervous that their balloons could be shot down next. Medlin says one of his balloons—call sign W5KUB-112—is projected by HYSPLIT to enter U.S. airspace on Feb. 17. It already circumnavigated the globe several times, but its trajectory last carried the object over China before it will enter either Mexican or U.S. airspace.

“I hope,” Medlin said, “that in the next few days when that happens we’re not real trigger-happy and start shooting down everything.”

 

[nsaspook]

This is what happens when you crank the Radar detection system sensitivity to 11 after being told military sensors were overlooking all kinds of balloons and such, and this was unacceptable. Scrambling jets from Oregon to intercept hobby balloons in Montana. The Chinese must be cracking up laughing with the intelligence they are getting from our responses.

https://www.rtl-sdr.com/the-us-airf...wn-an-amateur-radio-pico-balloon-over-canada/

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/13/politics/pentagon-memo-canada-small-balloon/index.html

A defense official said that the radar used by North American Aerospace Defense Command was adjusted after the initial high-altitude balloon sighting. “We continue to refine detection settings, and that won’t stop just because we have identified these smaller objects,” the official said.

The Pentagon and White House had not previously disclosed that the first missile did not strike the target, but NORTHCOM and NORAD Commander Gen. Glen VanHerck told reporters on Sunday that acquiring and targeting the object was difficult because of its small size.

 

[pinball1970]

This is what happens when you crank the Radar detection system sensitivity to 11 after being told military sensors were overlooking all kinds of balloons and such, and this was unacceptable. Scrambling jets from Oregon to intercept hobby balloons in Montana. The Chinese must be cracking up laughing with the intelligence they are getting from our responses.

https://www.rtl-sdr.com/the-us-airf...wn-an-amateur-radio-pico-balloon-over-canada/

View attachment 322422
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/13/politics/pentagon-memo-canada-small-balloon/index.html

I was hoping this would have all blown over by now.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I was hoping this would have all blown over by now.

"Blowing over" is how this all started!

 

[fresh_42]

 

[pinball1970]

"Blowing over" is how this all started!

Holy crap. That is THE best joke I have ever put on pf. I give in.

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...hot-alaska-lake-huron-ends-no-resul-rcna71303

U.S. ends its search for remnants of aerial objects shot down over Alaskan airspace and Lake Huron​

"We don’t yet know exactly what these three objects were, but nothing right now suggests they were related to China’s spy balloon program, or they were surveillance vehicles from other any other country," Biden said in public remarks.

Maybe not 'exactly' but you can bet they have a pretty good idea what they were aiming at.

 

[russ_watters]

Holy crap. That is THE best joke I have ever put on pf. I give in.

I thought it fell flat.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I thought it fell flat.

Went over like a lead balloo...nevermind.

 

[hutchphd]

For some that fell flat
Dread balloon downed by warplanes
It gave me a lift

 

[gmax137]

Went over like a lead balloo...nevermind.

Yeah, I thought I heard "Whole Lotta love..." turned up to 11...

 

[Astronuc]

U2 pilot took a photo of the balloon
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/u-2-pilot-took-selfie-212800274.html

One open source intelligence enthusiast was able to geolocate terrain features in the photo with the view over Washington, Missouri. The analyst states that the image is theoretically fakeable, “but it would be a lot of work to make everything match up.”

Update: The Pentagon admitted the photograph is real and has provided a newer, higher resolution photo, seen below. The location of Washington, Missouri is likely correct.

 

[Astronuc]

(Reuters) -A Chinese balloon that flew across the United States was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military sites and transmit it back to Beijing in real time, despite the Biden administration's efforts to prevent it from doing so, NBC News reported on Monday.

The high-altitude balloon, controlled by Beijing, was able to make multiple passes over some of the sites before it was shot down on Feb. 4, at times flying in a figure-eight formation, NBC said, citing two current senior U.S. officials and one former senior administration official.

The three officials said it could transmit the information it collected back to Beijing in real time, NBC reported.

https://news.yahoo.com/chinese-spy-balloon-gathered-intelligence-111100516.html

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ch...igence-us-military-sites-nbc-news-2023-04-03/

U.S. says it cannot confirm China collected real-time data from spy balloon​

 

[Vanadium 50]

And what woule you expect the government to say?

 

[sophiecentaur]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ch...igence-us-military-sites-nbc-news-2023-04-03/

U.S. says it cannot confirm China collected real-time data from spy balloon​

I must say, if I had bought one of those things and it didn't keep me up to date, minute by minute, I'd be after getting my money back. The only way the US could be sure that information was not getting back to Beijing would have been to shoot the balloon down.

 

[nsaspook]

And what woule you expect the government to say?

I would expect them to not make up stuff.

While 'real-time' (as in a continuous up/down link) is nice, it's not a critical ingredient on a system like this that's slow and likely self-controlled to loiter over a remotely selected targets of opportunity. For signals (communications monitoring) intelligence it's very common to batch preprocessed blocks of actual signal intercepts up to relays. When most people hear 'real-time', they think of Hollywood BS stuff like this.

 

[dlgoff]

I would expect them to not make up stuff.

While 'real-time' (as in a continuous up/down link) is nice, it's not a critical ingredient on a system like this that's slow and likely self-controlled to loiter over a remotely selected targets of opportunity. For signals (communications monitoring) intelligence it's very common to batch preprocessed blocks of actual signal intercepts up to relays. When most people hear 'real-time', they think of Hollywood BS stuff like this.

I liked the morse code "CQ"

 

[Vanadium 50]

I would expect them to not make up stuff.

"And now, from the same people who brought you the Gulf of Tokun, now comes...."

I don't really expect them to say "The Chinese were after A, B, and C, They got A, and they didn;t get B, and we're not so sure about C." I really, really don;t expect them to say "The Chinese were after X, and they think they got it, but we managed to slip in Y in its place."

Well, not unless they actually got X.

 

[fresh_42]

It is easy. I mean really easy.

It is easy for CNN to say: "The Chinese balloon spied in real time on military installations."
If US officials would confirm that, they would allow putting public pressure on them to respond with actions.
If no US official comments on this, or at least do not confirm the CNN claim, then they can do whatever they want, including taking action.

So why in the world would anybody cut his options in half without the least necessity? Stay silent and have all options at hand, or stupidly comment on a newspaper article and let the public put pressure on you? That doesn't make sense.

 

[fresh_42]

Before I forget this argument: China (big blind position) said they haven't got anything (weather balloon) but they didn't fold. The US raised its hand (shot down the balloon and salvaged as many parts as possible) and now it's China's move again. Why would anyone show his hand in such a situation? Better they keep thinking you have a hand!

 

[BillTre]

there's a phrase for that:
We can neither confirm nor deny ...

 

[fresh_42]

there's a phrase for that:
We can neither confirm nor deny ...

Also very popular:

At no time was there any danger to the public.

 

[nsaspook]

"And now, from the same people who brought you the Gulf of Tonik, now comes...."

I don't really expect them to say "The Chinese were after A, B, and C, They got A, and they didn;t get B, and we're not so sure about C." I really, really don;t expect them to say "The Chinese were after X, and they think they got it, but we managed to slip in Y in its place."

Well, not unless they actually got X.

In the Gulf of Tonkin at least there was actual valuable intelligence being collected.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DESOTO_patrol
https://www.vietnamwar50th.com/1945...20-DeSoto-8221-Patrols-in-the-Gulf-of-Tonkin/

 

[hutchphd]

Do they pack those in powder when they fold them up? I would think there might be electrostatic sticking issues upon launch.....(it is a good question 'cause I sure don't know)

 

[sophiecentaur]

Do they pack those in powder when they fold them up? I would think there might be electrostatic sticking issues upon launch.....(it is a good question 'cause I sure don't know)

You are referring to the "something inside" comment. Perhaps it's condensation as the pressure (albeit very low) changes. Like a short lived con trail.

 

[hutchphd]

Is there any way ice could have condensed on the interior on the way up? Seems unlikely.

 

[sophiecentaur]

Not in the interior because they would (presumably) use the purest lift gas available (at the price). I was thinking of the internal gas cooling as it burst. I wonder about the proportion of H2O vapour at that height. It could be higher and probably more stable than it is, lower down.

Which makes me wonder about the lift gas used. H2 has better lifting than He and safety is less of an issue than with passenger craft. Also, it must be a lot cheaper.

 

[Vanadium 50]

H2 has better lifting than He

Yeah, but only by 7-8%.

It has the advantage and disadvantage of going boom. If you want to destroy the evidence, it's easy. The political repercussions of gaving something go boom over someone else's country might be less desirable and likely difficult to predict.

 

[sophiecentaur]

Oh, I didn’t realise the marginal lift advantage. But He is getting more and more relatively costly.
Plus you can’t get an H balloon to ‘explode’. H will burn rapidly in contact with air as there’s only O2 outside the bag. Wooof is not Bang. I doubt if you’d hear much at 10km distance.
No fun being up there though. A gondola with pyro cable disconnect and a delayed opening chute could land you safely. And think of the money you save.