Combining separate upper & lower limits into a total?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the validity of combining upper and lower limits from two separate experiments measuring the same quantity, particularly at the same confidence level. Participants explore whether the overall upper limit can simply be the sum of the individual upper limits or if a more complex analysis is required, including considerations of correlations and systematic errors.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants question whether the overall upper limit can be derived by summing the individual upper limits, suggesting that this approach may yield a weaker limit due to the addition of more data.
  • Others emphasize the importance of understanding correlations and systematic errors that may affect both experiments, indicating that additional information is necessary for a proper analysis.
  • A participant raises the scenario of using a Monte Carlo simulation instead of two separate experiments, inquiring if this changes the complexity of the analysis.
  • Another participant notes that if the two values from a Monte Carlo simulation are correlated, it complicates the situation further, as it may not be appropriate to treat them as independent measurements.
  • One participant suggests that simply adding the limits would imply a 100% correlation, contrasting this with the method of adding in quadrature, while reiterating the need for information on systematic errors.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on whether the overall upper limit can be simply summed from individual limits. Multiple competing views remain regarding the treatment of correlations and the necessity of additional information for accurate analysis.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight the dependence on understanding systematic errors and correlations, which are not fully resolved in the discussion.

Anchovy
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If the results of two separate experiments to measure the same quantity are stated in terms of upper and lower limits at the same confidence level, is it valid to say that the overall upper limit (at the same C.L.) is just the sum of the two individual upper limits? Or is something more complicated necessary here?
 
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Anchovy said:
is it valid to say that the overall upper limit (at the same C.L.) is just the sum of the two individual upper limits?
No, definitely not. That would be a weaker limit with more data!

In general, there might also be correlations and systematics that are the same in both experiments. You need to have more information to do a proper analysis.
 
Orodruin said:
No, definitely not. That would be a weaker limit with more data!

In general, there might also be correlations and systematics that are the same in both experiments. You need to have more information to do a proper analysis.

Ah, I see. Do things become much simpler if it's not actually two different experiments, but rather it's one Monte Carlo simulation, counting the same thing happening two different ways?
 
You would still need to know a lot more about the actual simulation in order to make a statement. In particular about the systematic errors going in.
 
Orodruin said:
You would still need to know a lot more about the actual simulation in order to make a statement. In particular about the systematic errors going in.

OK, thanks.
 
I think just addining them will result to taking them 100% correlated, in contrast to adding them in quadrature... but as already pointed out, without knowing information on systematics, it will not give you the right result...
 
Anchovy said:
Ah, I see. Do things become much simpler if it's not actually two different experiments, but rather it's one Monte Carlo simulation, counting the same thing happening two different ways?
That probably makes it more complicated, as the two values are now certainly correlated.
 

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