Conditional probability and time series

[sthoriginal]

I really need some help here, will appreciate any effort. I calculated time series of tidal stresses. It turned out that the probability of having positive tidal stress is 0.4 and negative - 0.6 (I counted up number of hours when the stress was positive/negative and divided by the total number of hours). I want to find out how to calculate probability of the earthquake happening during 1h around the maximum (that is when the stress is positive)? Many thanks

 

[mathman]

The information seems too meager. You need more information about earthquake probability and the connection (if any) between earthquake and tidal stress.

 

[Stephen Tashi]

This again? https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=740303&highlight=tidal+earthquake