Suppose that there are 2 apple trees. Tree A and tree B.(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

A produces 0.7 of the farm's apples. And B produces 0.3.

Out of the apples that tree A produces, 0.15 are bad. For B, 0.05 are bad.

One package of goodies contains 3 apples.

Given this information, what is the P(Tree A| at least one bad apple in the package)

Okay, so here's what I tried.

Probability of at least 1 bad apple in the package from tree A is:

x=0.7*(1-(0.85)^3)

Probability of at least 1 bad apple in the package from tree B is:

y=0.3*(1-(0.95)^3)

Then P(Tree A| at least one bad apple in the package) = x/(x+y) = 0.863

Does this seem right? Any help would be greatly appreciated.

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# Conditional Probability Question

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