Corresponding character matching probability

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vivek1
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I have a dataset of protein, consisting of 10000 sequence each, having length Si
, where 1<=i<=10000. Now, I extracted k-mer "a" from the 1st sequence. The probability of occurrence of amino acid (character of protein sequence) is given by its frequency in the dataset. If I choose k-mer "b" from other sequence, what will be the probability that k-mer "b" matches k-mer "a" at least in r position out of k position?
 
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I believe that would be the probability that k-mer a appears in the remaining 9999 sequences. Without numerical data we can't give an exact value.