Uh... let's clarify some things.
The newsweek article is terrible, and probably just written as book advertisement. One example here:
However, Rees also says we must be mindful of all eventualities: “Physicists should be circumspect about carrying out experiments that generate conditions with no precedent, even in the cosmos.
[...]
“Many of us are inclined to dismiss these risks as science fiction, but give the stakes they could not be ignored, even if deemed highly improbable.”
It is correct that we should be careful if we would create conditions with no precedent. But we don't do that. Cosmic rays lead to collisions of higher energy every day. In the article this is not mentioned at all - it sounds like we would do something beyond natural processes.
gneill said:
The relevant formula is:
##T(M) = 5120 \frac{\pi G^2 M^3}{\hbar c^4}##
So for two protons the evaporation time will be about 3 x 10-96 seconds.
For one gram of matter, about 8 x 10-26 seconds. I wonder how that compares to the reaction rate of a typical nuclear explosion?
That formula works for macroscopic black holes where Hawking radiation is dominated by massless particles for most of its lifetime but it fails for microscopic black holes where more particles contribute. They evaporate faster. At 1 gram Hawking radiation will include every particle we know (and potentially several we do not).
anorlunda said:
We would need QED and perhaps GR to calculate the behavior of nearby particles in that time window with those conditions.
We don't, there are no nearby particles. The next proton is at least 10
-15 m away, it cannot reach the black hole in less than 10
-24 seconds - ages compared to the lifetime of the black hole.
DaveC426913 said:
Why would it take billions/trillions of years? (Presumably, the vast majority of that time would be spent at subatomic size, with the last macro-scale gobbling happening in just moments.)
With matter crushing down on it at millions of atmospheres, why would it take so long to grow?
If Hawking radiation wouldn't exist a microscopic black hole would still need millions to billions of years to accumulate matter - it simply doesn't have any mechanism to attract other matter strongly. Gravity is the only way, and the gravitational attraction of something with the LHC collision energy is tiny no matter where the black hole is. Pressure doesn't matter here. The black hole will be
in the wave functions of particles and the absorption probability is still tiny.
PeterDonis said:
No, it wouldn't, because the matter starts out at rest and it will take time for it to cover the distance to the center. Roughly speaking, if we assume that the matter has zero viscosity for this purpose (since it's all going down the hole at the center so matter just crossing the horizon won't "push back" against matter behind it), the time for the matter at the Earth's surface to reach the center and get swallowed by the hole should be about 20 minutes--one fourth of the free-fall orbit time.
That requires more than zero viscosity. You would need infinite compressibility as well. That is not a good assumption. Tangential forces will slow the matter which then leads to radial forces on the matter behind it.
PeterDonis said:
But at any rate it seems clear that for the hole's Hawking radiation pressure not to easily prevent adjacent matter from falling in, the hole has to be of at least "small astronomical body" mass.
There is another mechanism to consider which works even for stellar mass black holes: Radiation from infalling matter will slow down the collapse. This is the concept of (yet unobserved)
Quasi-stars, stars with a central black hole that can last for millions of years.
PeterDonis said:
If we assume a collision of equal energy particles moving in opposite directions (which AFAIK is the normal setup in an experiment like the LHC), a black hole that was produced could have zero momentum. That doesn't happen with normal collision products because the energy of the products is so much larger than their rest energy that they have to be moving very fast. But a collision that produced a black hole could have all of the collision energy converted to rest energy of the hole.
Black holes would be produced from parton collisions, the partons have a random fraction of the proton's energy, and in general collisions are asymmetric. They
can be roughly symmetric, however, unlike cosmic rays.
PeterDonis said:
Another wrinkle to consider is that a black hole of mass that small--well under the Planck mass--might not even be possible, depending on how quantum gravity turns out.
It is expected that black holes cannot form below the Planck mass. It would need extra dimensions, and while some people expect them to exist that is certainly not the mainstream view. Black holes at the LHC would need even more: Extra dimensions with just the right number and size to make black holes there possible but not at previous colliders.
DaveC426913 said:
I'll just have to take Hawking's word for it that it really happens at the rate predicted. (Has this been experimentally verified?)
Well, not without black holes in the lab... there is an equivalent phenomenon for sound, however, and there it has been observed.
If there are primordial black holes with just the right mass range we might see their evaporation today. Nothing found so far.
If collisions could form stable black holes they would consume neutron stars quickly. We can see neutron stars.