malty said:
The trouble here is that as physicist we know that there is a definite possibility of such an event occurring, but as Zapper already said it is as possible as you smashing a vase and the vase reassembling itself without your intervention. In physics this is a possibility so we cannot say the vase will definitely be destroyed, likewise we definitely cannot say that there is no chance of a black hole (or white hole [I'm sure there's some minute possibility of that too :)]) but we are incredibily more likely to be destroyed by something other than CERN, yes it could happen but there's a million other dangers in this world that are far more likely!
I would again want to point out that there is NO *definite probability* that the LHC will create earth-eating things. Contrary to the probability of the vase re-assembling itself, which has a tiny but genuine probability of happening (that is, if you would do an inimaginable number of times the experiment, in some cases the vase WOULD re-assemble), we have in fact no indication at all that the LHC *could* produce an earth-gobbling thing - even if we were to build a gazillion LHCs on a gazillion Earth's.
So what can we do ? We can say that according to most of our theoretical understanding, it is physically impossible to create such an earth-gobbling thing. That would be it.
Or, we can go a step further, and say: LET US SUPPOSE, against all of what we think to know, that we are fundamentally wrong concerning our basic knowledge, and ASSUME that - despite all of what we know telling us that it is physically impossible - it is nevertheless possible. In that case, it has a hypothetical probability of happening. How high could this probability eventually be in order for it not to be in contradiction with observation ?
Now, the last point is important: it means that we have to find ways that would give us observable consequences of our hypothesis that this "theoretically impossible thing" occurs nevertheless. So it depends on our ability to do so, that we can derive UPPER BOUNDS for this probability. If we just stay in our armchair, the upper bound is something around 100%. Indeed, sitting in our armchair is not *incompatible* with our strange thing happening at 100% probability. But it could still be 0%. We simply don't know. So it is not because we sit in our armchair that the probability of creating black holes that eat up the Earth got a probability of 100% ! It's that we didn't do much work to find a better upper boundary. It's like me saying that I don't know how much money you have in the bank, but an upper boundary must be something like 1000 000 times Bill Gates' fortune. It's just because I don't know any better that I can only say something of the kind. If I would have done some better job, I'd find a better upper boundary. In no way this implies that you are so rich.
So the more work I can put into restricting the upper boundary, the lower it can become. In fact, if the actual phenomenon doesn't physically exist (as is suggested by about all of our theories), then with enough work and observation, I can put that boundary as low as I want.
Now, people did a limited amount of work, and they considered only a certain class of observable phenomena, such as planets like Jupiter, or neutron stars, that are exposed for millions of years to LHC-like collisions. From that, they could derive an upper boundary of the eventual probability for our hypothetical event to happen. It DOESN'T MEAN AT ALL, that this is an ESTIMATE for that probability. Only, we don't know any better. If we would like to get a lower boundary, we should do more observations, we should do more clever deductions, etc...
Again, there's a big difference between an *upper boundary* on an eventual probability of an event happening, which should theoretically actually not happen (but we are modest and recon that all of our theoretical knowledge could be wrong), and an *estimate* of the probability of a genuine phenomenon happening, like an estimate for a smoker to devellop cancer due to smoking.
So it is not because some or other scientist writes that "black holes have a probability smaller than 1/500 to eat up the earth" that this means that once out of 500, a black hole will eat up the earth. It simply means that with the limited set of observations, the scientist couldn't find a stronger upper boundary on the probability (which might - and most probably is - zero if we have any reason to believe current theory) starting from the set of observations he decided to start with, and considering the kind of reasoning and approximations he made.