Dark matter candidates, what chances would you give them?

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The discussion revolves around the likelihood of various dark matter candidates, with participants providing their estimated probabilities for each. The leading candidate is the Lightest Supersymmetric Particle (LSP) at 50%, followed by less favored options like sterile neutrinos and Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND). There is a consensus that while the standard model has limitations, alternative theories should be explored due to the lack of direct detection of dark matter. Participants emphasize the importance of observational evidence and the possibility of multiple dark matter types, including non-baryonic candidates like WIMPs. Overall, the conversation highlights the ongoing uncertainty and complexity in understanding dark matter's true nature.
  • #61
Chronos said:
The lack of detection is not an issue in the minds of most theorists.
This is a problem. If your cosmology is hanging on something that has never been detected (even tentatively) then the theorists need to study obervations for a bit and come up with some new speculations. If theorists are allowed to frame the question and reject all observations that conflict with their assumptions, we are in a very unhealthy situation.
 
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  • #62
turbo-1 said:
Because the LSP (if it exists) should permeate the Universe, and even if it is extremely weakly interactive, the odds are that we should have seen some hints that they exist. So far, none yet.

What you are are saying is simply not correct.
Theory of supersymmetry, together with simulations telling us what local density of DM we could expect, indeed favours the situation that we have not yet detected the LSP! With current experiments we have just started to scratch the surface of the huge parameter space where the LSP could live.
However, with the LHC together with future direct detection experiments, a major part of the parameter space can be searched trough.
You can read about all this in the Jungman link I gave you.
 
  • #63
turbo-1 said:
If theorists are allowed to frame the question and reject all observations that conflict with their assumptions, we are in a very unhealthy situation.

But theorists don't reject any observations, where have you got that from?
Instead all observations and experiments put limits on the theory, i.e. they reduce the parameter space of the LSP.
(Here are some recent results: http://www.arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0602028 )
For every new experiment/observation the parameter space is cut down by another small amount, but there's still a huge piece left over.
Again, you can also read about this in Jungman.
 
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  • #64
EL, you posted a link to Jungman's table of contents, not to the paper, and the embedded URLs in the abstract do not work either. I tried Googling on "Supersymmetric Dark Matter" and got over 40,000 hits - too many to wade through. Do you have a link to the full PDF?
 
  • #65
turbo-1 said:
EL, you posted a link to Jungman's table of contents, not to the paper, and the embedded URLs in the abstract do not work either. I tried Googling on "Supersymmetric Dark Matter" and got over 40,000 hits - too many to wade through. Do you have a link to the full PDF?

Oops, sorry for that:redface: . No I don't have a link to the PDF, but I managed to download it from Physics Reports. However if you don't have access to that journal it may be hard to find it for free (leagaly).

Try this paper by Bergstrom instead:
http://www.arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0002126
It's not as detailed as Jungman, but instead easier to follow, and somewhat more up to date (although a lot has happened during the last years). Check out chapter 8-9 in specific.
 
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  • #66
turbo-1 said:
Because the LSP (if it exists) should permeate the Universe, and even if it is extremely weakly interactive, the odds are that we should have seen some hints that they exist.

Oh really? Could you please show us this calculation?
 
  • #67
SpaceTiger said:
Oh really? Could you please show us this calculation?
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/astro-ph/pdf/0504/0504241.pdf
paper said:
For WIMPs with masses of approximately 100 GeV/c2 (the mass of a A=100 nucleus, we will see later the motivation for this example), the local density is 3000 WIMP per cubic meter, and a flux of 6x104 WIMPs is traversing each cm2 of our body every second. Another important aspect is that the average kinetic energy of these WIMPs is 20 keV.
If the LSP can self-annihilate in pairs, the energy released in such annihilation should be pretty significant, with a "signature" energy or energies (depending on the nature of the decay particles). If the LSP is truly "weakly interactive" it cannot be excluded from the detectors of the accelerators around the world, yet such an annihilation event has never been observed (or at least none have been recognized and reported, to my knowledge). With such a high WIMP flux impinging on detectors at accelerators, shouldn't we have observed WIMP annihilation serendipitously by now? It would appear as if the decay particles arose spontaneously, with excess energy carried of as gamma rays.
 
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  • #68
turbo-1 said:
If the LSP can self-annihilate in pairs, the energy released in such annihilation should be pretty significant, with a "signature" energy or energies (depending on the nature of the decay particles).
People have investigated what signatures to expect. See for example:
http://www.arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0507229
However, it's not clear wheter it will completely drown into the background from other astrophysical sources or not.

If the LSP is truly "weakly interactive" it cannot be excluded from the detectors of the accelerators around the world, yet such an annihilation event has never been observed (or at least none have been recognized and reported, to my knowledge). With such a high WIMP flux impinging on detectors at accelerators, shouldn't we have observed WIMP annihilation serendipitously by now? It would appear as if the decay particles arose spontaneously, with excess energy carried of as gamma rays.

First of all: The DM direct detection detectors are not part of any accelerators. Detectors in accelerators are design to detect what's produced in the accelerator. Direct detection detectors are designed somewhat similar as neutrino detectors. For example Edelwise (which is mensioned in your quoted paper) is situated several kilometers inside a mountain, at the border between France and Italy (actually I recently visited Edelwise), in order to reduce the background.

For the second: Have you even taken your time to read the paper you're citing? In section 4.5 it says:
"As current experiments are more than four order of magnitude away from a full coverage of the bulk of supersymmetric predictions, the coming years may reveal that the ultimate sensitivity can only be reached by detector techniques that are now in a very early development stage."
And in the conclusions it clearly states:
"there is still a lot of development in progress on the road to the 10^−8 pb sensitivity of current projects to the ultimate 10^−10 pb sensitivity necessary to cover most of the MSSM domain."
That is, we need to get to 10^-10 pb sensitivity before most of the LSP parameter space can be covered by direct detection experiments.
At the moment we are, as said before, just scratching the surface.

For the third: Were is the calculation Space Tiger asked for? All your cited paper succeeded with was to completely debunk your own claims.

Suggested reading is still the Bergstrom paper I linked. Please feel free to ask about things you don't find clear.
 
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  • #69
turbo-1 said:
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/astro-ph/pdf/0504/0504241.pdf

An excellent link, thank you turbo-1. Unfortunately, you seem to have seriously misinterpreted the paper. Skip ahead to section 3.4, titled "Current status of direct searches":

Gascon 2005 said:
At present, the most competitive direct searches have reached sensitivities close to 10-6 pb. This starts to explore the domain of optimistic supersymmetric models.

In other words, the majority of WIMP candidates from theories of supersymmetry are undetectable by these experiments.
 
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  • #70
Maybe I wasn't clear. Direct detection of LSP may be some time away, but given the flux density of this proposed DM candidate, should we not have seen (serendipitously) the spontaneous production of the decay products of the LSP in at least some accelerator detectors by now? If the decay products and the energy released falls in the mass range of the LSP, that would be a very good indirect detection, and help nail down the sensitivities needed for direct detection. If the LSP is indeed weakly interactive, there is no way to exclude those particles from the detector chambers. Certainly the people monitoring that equipment have an idea what such a serendipitous observation should look like, including a range of energies that might be released.

We shouldn't have to concentrate on trying to make these WIMPS if they are as plentiful as expected. We should simply start watching for pair-decay. If the Standard Model is correct, the Universe has already produced all the LSPs we need and we can use existing detectors to watch for the decay of the LSPs, which will appear to us as if the decay products simply popped into existence with an accompanying realease of energy.
 
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  • #71
turbo-1 said:
Maybe I wasn't clear. Direct detection of LSP may be some time away, but given the flux density of this proposed DM candidate, should we not have seen (serendipitously) the spontaneous production of the decay products of the LSP in at least some accelerator detectors by now?
Well, the LSP cannot decay, but I suppose what you mean is annihilation products produced by collisions between LSP's.
Think of this: Interactions between WIMPs and ordinary matter in the direct detection experiments are not frequent enough to be detected. The density of ordinary matter in a detector is way higher than the expected local WIMP density. Which event should occur more often: WIMPs interacting with the detector, or WIMPs interacting with WIMPs? What conclusion can be drawn?
 
  • #72
From what I have read (and I will qualify this by saying that I have a physical revulsion to tacking over a hundred new dimensionless parameters on the standard model to extend it with MSSM, so I have not been a real fan of any brand of SUSY) LSPs (in pairs) can decay in pairs into lighter baryonic particles plus gamma rays. Given the predicted flux of LSPs, shouldn't we have observed at least one such decay by now? If not, why not? Indirect detections of LSP seem a whole lot more likely than direct detections.
 
  • #73
turbo-1 said:
From what I have read (and I will qualify this by saying that I have a physical revulsion to tacking over a hundred new dimensionless parameters on the standard model to extend it with MSSM, so I have not been a real fan of any brand of SUSY) LSPs (in pairs) can decay in pairs into lighter baryonic particles plus gamma rays.
When two particles interact and annihilate into something new, we usually don't call it a "decay". "Decay" is something a single particle does. That's why I objected to your use of the word. But anyway...
Given the predicted flux of LSPs, shouldn't we have observed at least one such decay by now? If not, why not? Indirect detections of LSP seem a whole lot more likely than direct detections.
I'll repeat:
EL said:
Think of this: Interactions between WIMPs and ordinary matter in the direct detection experiments are not frequent enough to be detected. The density of ordinary matter in a detector is way higher than the expected local WIMP density. Which event should occur more often: WIMPs interacting with the detector, or WIMPs interacting with WIMPs?What conclusion can be drawn?
 
  • #74
Thanks for the clarification on the use of decay products vs aniihilation products. Do you know of a paper that lays out an estimate for the WIMP annihilation rate (perhaps as a percentage of total flux)? I have not been able to find one.
 
  • #75
turbo-1 said:
Thanks for the clarification on the use of decay products vs aniihilation products. Do you know of a paper that lays out an estimate for the WIMP annihilation rate (perhaps as a percentage of total flux)? I have not been able to find one.

Here's an estimate based on an excess of microwave emission near the center of the galaxy:

http://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/0409027"
 
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  • #76
Thank you for the link, ST. I have done a little searching to determine detector volumes and found the dimensions of a "drift chamber" that is 26cm radius with a 16cm radis core through which the beam runs, and a chamber length of 2m. The detector has a radial cross section of about 1318cm2 and a total volume of 263,600 cm3.

Assuming a flux of 6x104 WIMPs /s/cm2 (from the paper I linked previously) and a longitudinal detector cross/section of 5200cm2, there should be 3.12x108 WIMPS traversing the detector every second. Shouldn't we have seen at least one WIMP annihilation event in all the years particle accelerators/colliders have been in operation?
 
  • #77
I assume you have some statistics in mind.
 

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