News Does Iran's Nuclear Deal Increase the Risk of Middle East Proliferation?

[Borg]

I don't think an airstrike (similar to the Osirak bombing) - or even several - equates to "bombing someone's regime into oblivion". I don't think it is useful to create an umbrella under which all military action is considered "war", when clearly we all recognize that regardless of the label used, the differences are vast. It looks like part of the same strawman to me.

I don't agree, but in either case there are also examples of bombing campaigns that didn't, so it is wrong to assume Gulf War III when the more likely scenario is Osirak II.

And again, I probably should have limited this to Obama's table. My point is that one should not base support for this agreement on opposition to an attack, because Obama would never have attacked.

I don't think that a limited bombing campaign equates to that either. Again, I'm just quoting tom's original post.

I agree that the most likely scenario is Osirak II and the Israelis would likely be the ones to do it - unless maybe Trump gets into office.

 

[votingmachine]

To each his own I guess. I would think that bombing someone's regime into oblivion is pretty warlike.

While votingmachine may have expanded on tom aaron's bombing campaign, there have been plenty of examples in the middle east where U.S. bombing campaigns did become boots on the ground. As for the nuclear attack part, that was also originally brought up by tom aaron's post #3 (whether it's us or the Israelis probably doesn't matter to the Iranians). So, I didn't really see votingmachine's comments as raising to the level of strawman because of that.

I gve a prediction and I still think it is correct that bombing is just the beginning of a conflict. That it is easy to start, but not easy to end.
I said:
"Any attack would lead to war between Iran, and the US and the US allies."
"It is likely that the Iranian nuclear sites are not easily bombed into non-existence. It is possible that the US can bring a massive amount of non-nuclear devastation into Iran and destroy those sites, but it is not a given. And that would strengthen the current regime. And they would no doubt engage in ground war against Israel at that point. Quite likely with success."
"Starting a war is easy. Ending it successfully is much more difficult."

It is not obvious that we can attack Iran and not have that be an act of war, that leads to military responses. It is not a strawman argument to point out that sometimes you bomb and it is a "Pearl Harbor" war beginning.

If we bomb Iran, it is very likely to lead to Iran attacking neighboring countries. And it locks in future Iranian hostility, while a negotiation eases it.

 

[votingmachine]

Sure, but you implied that war was the first/most likely option if no deal was reached. Obama is largely responsible for creating that deal-or-war dichotomy, but it is nonsense:

https://www.weeklystandard.com/blog...-iran-deal-doesnt-pass-laugh-test_992618.html

But this is Obama we're talking about. He's Commander in Chief of the military, not Congress. I can't imagine anyone actually believes he would attack Iran in any capacity, and as little as six weeks ago was essentially saying there was no military option on the table (as, my recollection is, that has always been his position):

The reason the deal smells bad to me is mostly because of the way Obama went about it. He threatened the US with war to coerce us to accept the deal instead of threatening Iran with war to coerce them to accept the deal!

This is related to his claim in April that a deal had been reached, which was a flat lie, and a pointless/counterproductive one in my opinion. Since he's not running for re-election, he doesn't need to win shouting matches with Republicans - he shouldn't care if they were criticizing him for his failure to reach a deal. All that lie did was back himself into a corner where he had to acquiesce to Iran's demands to avoid the lie becoming permanent. Again: he'd rather win a meaningless battle with Republicans than an important one with Iran. Much of this is paraphrase/summary from here:
http://mosaicmagazine.com/observation/2015/04/the-tectonic-shift-in-obamas-iran-policy/

I don't see why that is confusing -- we're trying to discuss whether the deal is good or bad and to do that, we have to consider what would have happened if no deal had been reached. Heck, you made the argument, I just challenged your assumption about what the primary alternative was.

The default "option" is essentially always maintaing the status quo if no deal is reached (decision on change is made). The decisions to make a change from status quo are nearly always separate decisions: Deal or status quo? War or status quo? Not "deal or war?".

Of course. But this discussion is about whether we like that policy and in order to judge whether we like it, we need to consider the alternatives.

As long as they are realistic alternatives, I have no problem with that. I don't see much going on in the media other than republican complaining that President Obama is the President. I agree that he has used politics and pressure and every other tool to implement his foreign policies. That is GOOD not bad. I've seen a lot of Presidents in my life and what they do is implement foreign policy. That really is how it is done, and how it is supposed to be done.

If you don't like the President, it is easy to criticize the deal. If you have a particularly strong interest in this particular issue, you may disagree with the President on this lone issue. The majority of opinions I see from republicans are overwhelmingly negative. I've seen the standard comparison to "Neville Chamberlain". Which is somewhat funny, because I agree with you, that the President pushed this in an effective way, and I disagree with you, that it is most likely to lead to a better future, with a non-nuclear Iran.

I am not certain why it bothers you that the President is forced to coerce the republican Congress. Generally, that is a sign of effectiveness when a President accomplishes things while saddled with a hostile Congress. How he went about it seems to have led directly to the outcomes he wanted.

There is no predicting if this deal WILL lead to a non-nuclear Iran. It should put the Iranian nuclear plans on hold (it actually pushes them backwards), and give us an early warning on any re-start. If they change the national goal of getting nukes then the deal is a success.

If it turns out they are merely lying to get some cash, then the problem will of course remain.

 

[mheslep]

Which much stringent (Western) sanctions you mean? Especially if you dislike just "piece of paper" how would you curb their trade potential with ex. China?

Current US sanctions regime is CISADA (2010), summarized here by FAS, page 16. Wherever the current sanctions prohibit most imports from or most exports to Iran, there is room for further restriction. In particular there is a list made by the President that freezes assets of particular individuals touched by the US banking system. That list can always be expanded and needs no blessing by other countries. The current sanction regime obviously had zero dependence on any paper agreement with Iran, unlike the current Iranian agreement.

 

[mheslep]

I would likely have supported a short bombing campaign as well. But that's not war, IMO.

I might have as well, but I dislike the notion of coming up with some euphemism for the use of violence against another country even if sharply limited to a couple of days. Even a short bombing campaign is going to kill some people, and includes the risk of getting some US pilots killed. The commander in chief, when deciding the action is necessary, ought to say as much. Calling it a war does this; calling it something else allows us all to pretend otherwise.

 

[mheslep]

(it actually pushes them backwards),

No, we hope that the agreement will. In this discussion you have periodically walked back and forth across the line of mislabeling the agreement as deed instead of word. The agreement "stops" the nuclear program, it "actually pushes them backwards". That difference is the basis of the critique of the President's Iranian deal.

 

[tom aaron]

As long as they are realistic alternatives, I have no problem with that. I don't see much going on in the media other than republican complaining that President Obama is the President. I agree that he has used politics and pressure and every other tool to implement his foreign policies. That is GOOD not bad. I've seen a lot of Presidents in my life and what they do is implement foreign policy. That really is how it is done, and how it is supposed to be done.

If you don't like the President, it is easy to criticize the deal. If you have a particularly strong interest in this particular issue, you may disagree with the President on this lone issue. The majority of opinions I see from republicans are overwhelmingly negative. I've seen the standard comparison to "Neville Chamberlain". Which is somewhat funny, because I agree with you, that the President pushed this in an effective way, and I disagree with you, that it is most likely to lead to a better future, with a non-nuclear Iran.

I am not certain why it bothers you that the President is forced to coerce the republican Congress. Generally, that is a sign of effectiveness when a President accomplishes things while saddled with a hostile Congress. How he went about it seems to have led directly to the outcomes he wanted.

There is no predicting if this deal WILL lead to a non-nuclear Iran. It should put the Iranian nuclear plans on hold (it actually pushes them backwards), and give us an early warning on any re-start. If they change the national goal of getting nukes then the deal is a success.

If it turns out they are merely lying to get some cash, then the problem will of course remain.

I don't have as much faith as you in 'the President' be him Bush jr or Obama. Presidents can be and have been incompetent. We've had two duds in a row.

 

[Czcibor]

Current US sanctions regime is CISADA (2010), summarized here by FAS, page 16. Wherever the current sanctions prohibit most imports from or most exports to Iran, there is room for further restriction. In particular there is a list made by the President that freezes assets of particular individuals touched by the US banking system. That list can always be expanded and needs no blessing by other countries. The current sanction regime obviously had zero dependence on any paper agreement with Iran, unlike the current Iranian agreement.

My point is that the US has limited ability to make its sanction harsher if it imports from Iran is already 0, while it exports goods worth something like 200 mln dollars. Moving it to zero too would not seriously affect Iran, as it main business partners are United Arab Emirates, China, India, Japan, S. Korea.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5070.html

 

[mheslep]

My point is that the US has limited ability to make its sanction harsher if it imports from Iran is already 0, while it exports goods worth something like 200 mln dollars. Moving it to zero too would not seriously affect Iran, as it main business partners are United Arab Emirates, China, India, Japan, S. Korea.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5070.html

All US action has its limits, including military. Some exports are difficult to get elsewhere. And then there are additional financial asset freezes. As far as I can tell US action in that regard requires no blessing from other nations.

 

[verybadman]

hi
In case of misunderstanding, I'm not supporting iran's regime. I'm just curious to know.
Is there any evidence that iran is supporting terrorism or has connections to terrorist organizations like ISIS?
or is it just for iran's threats of destroying israel?

sorry if there is a lot of grammatical mistakes.

 

[russ_watters]

hi
In case of misunderstanding, I'm not supporting iran's regime. I'm just curious to know.
Is there any evidence that iran is supporting terrorism or has connections to terrorist organizations like ISIS?

That's a very broad question. The short answer is yes, but I'd start with the wiki on the subject and go from there:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_and_state-sponsored_terrorism

or is it just for iran's threats of destroying israel?

I'm not sure of the official line, but I would tend to consider that a separate issue. It can be grey though.

 

[HossamCFD]

... has connections to terrorist organizations like ISIS?

Iran has very strong connections to Hezbollah, which is classified as a terrorist group in most countries. They also had ties to Hamas prior to the Syrian civil war. On the other hand they are heavily involved in the war against ISIS, either via Hezbollah in Syria or Iraqi Shia militias in Iraq.

 

[Astronuc]

or is it just for iran's threats of destroying israel?

There is certainly evidence that Iran has provided material support to Hezbollah and Hamas who are devoted to the destruction of Israel.

Iran and Hezbollah
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/07/us-lebanon-hezbollah-idUSTRE81629H20120207
http://www.cfr.org/lebanon/hezbollah-k-hizbollah-hizbullah/p9155
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funding_of_Hezbollah

Iran and Hamas
http://www.economist.com/node/12959539
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100211788 - back in 2009
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/21/iran-supplied-hamas-missile-technology - 2012Back in March, CSIS hosted a debate on Iran and it's nuclear program - If Failure in Iran, Then What?

 

[Finny]

I'm just curious to know.
Is there any evidence that iran is supporting terrorism or has connections to terrorist organizations like ISIS?

yes, for sure, as posted, but Shiite Iran does NOT support Sunni ISIS. Many SUNNI and SHIA are enemies. Leadership of Egypt and Saudi Arabia are SUNNI and oppose Shite IRAN. Shiites [SHIA] and SUNNI have been bitter enemies for years ever since the Shia split from the 'true' faith several thousand years ago.

The only thing I can think of where they cooperate is setting cartel prices: OPEC oil.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are among SUNNI countries that will want nuclear weapons if Iran gets close to having them, and especially if they doubt US will support them. They are very doubtful of US support under the current Administration. Say hello to 'nuclear proliferation'?? Will it be Obama's legacy??