Drought (possibly 'climate change') and famine 2200-2000 BCE

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the impact of drought and famine on ancient civilizations, particularly Egypt, during the period 2200-2000 BCE. Evidence from sediment analysis in the Nile Delta indicates that drought conditions, exacerbated by reduced rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, led to significant agricultural decline and societal upheaval. Michael Krom from Leeds University utilized isotope analysis to differentiate sediment sources, revealing that increased Blue Nile mud during droughts correlates with famine events. This phenomenon likely contributed to the relocation of tribes in search of arable land.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of isotope analysis techniques
  • Familiarity with sedimentology and its implications in archaeology
  • Knowledge of ancient Egyptian history, particularly the Early Helladic III period
  • Awareness of climate change impacts on historical societies
NEXT STEPS
  • Research isotope analysis methods in environmental science
  • Study the effects of climate change on ancient civilizations
  • Examine archaeological findings related to the Early Helladic III period
  • Explore the relationship between drought patterns and societal migration
USEFUL FOR

Historians, archaeologists, climate scientists, and anyone interested in the interplay between environmental factors and the rise and fall of ancient civilizations.

Astronuc
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Like the thread on Earthquakes possibly contributing to the collapse of civilizations in the last Bronze Age, I heard that a famine impacted Egypt, and possibly the Aegean region and perhaps into Eastern Europe and parts of North Africa during the period 2200 - 2000 BCE (aka Early Helladic III or Tiryns culture period (or EHIII) in ancient Greek history).

Apparently some evidence has been found based on sediments in the Nile delta and other ponds/lakes in Egypt.

For example - https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17323271-800-how-egypt-was-felled-by-famine-in-2180-bc/

ancient Egypt’s mighty pyramid builders were powerless in the face of the famine that helped bring down their civilisation around 2180 BC.
. . .

Dwindling rains in the Ethiopian highlands would have meant fewer plants to stabilise the soil. When rain did fall it would have washed large amounts of soil into the Blue Nile and into Egypt, along with sediment from the White Nile.

Blue Nile mud has a different isotope signature from that of the White Nile. So by analysing isotope differences in mud deposited in the Nile Delta, Michael Krom of Leeds University worked out what proportion of sediment came from each branch of the river.

Krom reasons that during periods of drought, the amount of Blue Nile mud in the river would be relatively high. . . . .

I was listening to a video that described changes in sediment layers, which appeared to be related to dust storms, which could also bury areas experiencing drought. The New Scientist article is a different source of information on the drought and resulting famine.

Drought and famine could play a role in forcing the relocation of tribes from one region to another in search of food and viable land.
 
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Earth sciences news on Phys.org
Astronuc said:
Drought and famine could play a role in forcing the relocation of tribes from one region to another in search of food and viable land.
With respect.
In any region, over a 200 year period, there will be at least one “1 in 100 year” drought. The same goes for floods.
If you gather sufficient data, and look closely, you will find evidence of an event that will support your self-fulfilling hypothesis.
 
Baluncore said:
In any region, over a 200 year period, there will be at least one “1 in 100 year” drought. The same goes for floods.
We have them every 15 years. You must be thinking of “1 in 1000 year”.
 
Keith_McClary said:
We have them every 15 years.
I think you are not experiencing all of them, but are seeing them on the news.
First, for a given location (such as where you live), a one in 100 year event would be expected to occur on average once in 100 years. However, across all of Australia you would expect the one in 100 year event to be exceeded somewhere far more often than once in a century!
https://theconversation.com/what-is...nd-why-do-they-keep-happening-so-often-157589
 
Baluncore said:
I think you are not experiencing all of them, but are seeing them on the news.
I think that what was historically "1 in 100" is now "1 in 15".
 
Reminded me of the Discword quote

Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten.​