Drought (possibly 'climate change') and famine 2200-2000 BCE

AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on the impact of famine and drought on ancient civilizations, particularly focusing on Egypt during the period of 2200 - 2000 BCE. Evidence suggests that a significant famine around 2180 BC contributed to the decline of Egypt's pyramid builders, linked to decreased rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, which led to increased sediment from the Blue Nile and changes in the Nile Delta's sediment layers. This environmental stress may have prompted the relocation of tribes in search of food and arable land. The conversation also touches on the frequency of droughts and floods, debating the statistical understanding of "1 in 100 year" weather events, with some arguing that such events are occurring more frequently than historical averages suggest. The discussion highlights the complex interplay between climate, environmental changes, and societal shifts in ancient history.
Astronuc
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Like the thread on Earthquakes possibly contributing to the collapse of civilizations in the last Bronze Age, I heard that a famine impacted Egypt, and possibly the Aegean region and perhaps into Eastern Europe and parts of North Africa during the period 2200 - 2000 BCE (aka Early Helladic III or Tiryns culture period (or EHIII) in ancient Greek history).

Apparently some evidence has been found based on sediments in the Nile delta and other ponds/lakes in Egypt.

For example - https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17323271-800-how-egypt-was-felled-by-famine-in-2180-bc/

ancient Egypt’s mighty pyramid builders were powerless in the face of the famine that helped bring down their civilisation around 2180 BC.
. . .

Dwindling rains in the Ethiopian highlands would have meant fewer plants to stabilise the soil. When rain did fall it would have washed large amounts of soil into the Blue Nile and into Egypt, along with sediment from the White Nile.

Blue Nile mud has a different isotope signature from that of the White Nile. So by analysing isotope differences in mud deposited in the Nile Delta, Michael Krom of Leeds University worked out what proportion of sediment came from each branch of the river.

Krom reasons that during periods of drought, the amount of Blue Nile mud in the river would be relatively high. . . . .

I was listening to a video that described changes in sediment layers, which appeared to be related to dust storms, which could also bury areas experiencing drought. The New Scientist article is a different source of information on the drought and resulting famine.

Drought and famine could play a role in forcing the relocation of tribes from one region to another in search of food and viable land.
 
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Earth sciences news on Phys.org
Astronuc said:
Drought and famine could play a role in forcing the relocation of tribes from one region to another in search of food and viable land.
With respect.
In any region, over a 200 year period, there will be at least one “1 in 100 year” drought. The same goes for floods.
If you gather sufficient data, and look closely, you will find evidence of an event that will support your self-fulfilling hypothesis.
 
Baluncore said:
In any region, over a 200 year period, there will be at least one “1 in 100 year” drought. The same goes for floods.
We have them every 15 years. You must be thinking of “1 in 1000 year”.
 
Keith_McClary said:
We have them every 15 years.
I think you are not experiencing all of them, but are seeing them on the news.
First, for a given location (such as where you live), a one in 100 year event would be expected to occur on average once in 100 years. However, across all of Australia you would expect the one in 100 year event to be exceeded somewhere far more often than once in a century!
https://theconversation.com/what-is...nd-why-do-they-keep-happening-so-often-157589
 
Baluncore said:
I think you are not experiencing all of them, but are seeing them on the news.
I think that what was historically "1 in 100" is now "1 in 15".
 
Reminded me of the Discword quote

Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten.​

 

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