Drought (possibly 'climate change') and famine 2200-2000 BCE

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the potential impact of drought and famine on civilizations during the period 2200 - 2000 BCE, particularly in ancient Egypt and the Aegean region. Participants explore the relationship between climate change and societal collapse, referencing sediment analysis and historical weather patterns.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Historical

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that evidence from sediment analysis in the Nile Delta indicates a significant drought around 2180 BC that may have contributed to famine and societal collapse in ancient Egypt.
  • Others argue that drought and famine could lead to the relocation of tribes in search of food and viable land.
  • One participant challenges the notion of a "1 in 100 year" drought, suggesting that such events may occur more frequently than expected over a 200-year period.
  • Another participant counters that drought events are perceived differently depending on local experiences and media coverage.
  • There is a humorous reference to a quote about improbable events, suggesting a light-hearted take on the discussion of rare weather occurrences.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the frequency and impact of drought events, with no clear consensus on the historical significance of these events or their implications for societal changes.

Contextual Notes

Participants reference various sources and interpretations of historical weather events, but there are unresolved assumptions regarding the definitions of "1 in 100 year" events and their historical context.

Astronuc
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Like the thread on Earthquakes possibly contributing to the collapse of civilizations in the last Bronze Age, I heard that a famine impacted Egypt, and possibly the Aegean region and perhaps into Eastern Europe and parts of North Africa during the period 2200 - 2000 BCE (aka Early Helladic III or Tiryns culture period (or EHIII) in ancient Greek history).

Apparently some evidence has been found based on sediments in the Nile delta and other ponds/lakes in Egypt.

For example - https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17323271-800-how-egypt-was-felled-by-famine-in-2180-bc/

ancient Egypt’s mighty pyramid builders were powerless in the face of the famine that helped bring down their civilisation around 2180 BC.
. . .

Dwindling rains in the Ethiopian highlands would have meant fewer plants to stabilise the soil. When rain did fall it would have washed large amounts of soil into the Blue Nile and into Egypt, along with sediment from the White Nile.

Blue Nile mud has a different isotope signature from that of the White Nile. So by analysing isotope differences in mud deposited in the Nile Delta, Michael Krom of Leeds University worked out what proportion of sediment came from each branch of the river.

Krom reasons that during periods of drought, the amount of Blue Nile mud in the river would be relatively high. . . . .

I was listening to a video that described changes in sediment layers, which appeared to be related to dust storms, which could also bury areas experiencing drought. The New Scientist article is a different source of information on the drought and resulting famine.

Drought and famine could play a role in forcing the relocation of tribes from one region to another in search of food and viable land.
 
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Earth sciences news on Phys.org
Astronuc said:
Drought and famine could play a role in forcing the relocation of tribes from one region to another in search of food and viable land.
With respect.
In any region, over a 200 year period, there will be at least one “1 in 100 year” drought. The same goes for floods.
If you gather sufficient data, and look closely, you will find evidence of an event that will support your self-fulfilling hypothesis.
 
Baluncore said:
In any region, over a 200 year period, there will be at least one “1 in 100 year” drought. The same goes for floods.
We have them every 15 years. You must be thinking of “1 in 1000 year”.
 
Keith_McClary said:
We have them every 15 years.
I think you are not experiencing all of them, but are seeing them on the news.
First, for a given location (such as where you live), a one in 100 year event would be expected to occur on average once in 100 years. However, across all of Australia you would expect the one in 100 year event to be exceeded somewhere far more often than once in a century!
https://theconversation.com/what-is...nd-why-do-they-keep-happening-so-often-157589
 
Baluncore said:
I think you are not experiencing all of them, but are seeing them on the news.
I think that what was historically "1 in 100" is now "1 in 15".
 
Reminded me of the Discword quote

Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten.​