DUARS Satellite Re-Entry: Impressive Light Show & Potential Debris Threat

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Evo
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As most of you know the UARS satellite is returning to Earth this weekend...ooops!

Now NASA has determined that UARS is moving along at a quicker pace than predicted, and instead of arriving in late September or early October, the satellite is expected to enter the atmosphere this weekend.

While the satellite’s exact trajectory is still uncertain, anyone in the vicinity of UARS’ return to Earth’s atmosphere will be privy to an impressive light show — and be subject to a 1-in-3200 chance of getting hit by debris, according to NASA.

The remnants will weigh somewhere around 1,170 pounds and be made of titanium, aluminum, steel and beryllium
And apparently the trajectory is right over Evo's house. :rolleyes: :bugeye:

http://news.yahoo.com/fema-prepares...NidXNpbmVzcwRwdANzdG9yeXBhZ2UEdGVzdAM-;_ylv=3

So, could some of our brilliant astrophysicists do a quick back of napkin projection of when my house will burst into flames?
 

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Bye Bye, Evo
... and I thought evo is leaving pf :cry: :rolleyes::frown:
 
Wow! I would suggest moving to Don's place for the re-entry, but you'd draw the satellite in like a magnet and PF would lose you both.
 
Evo said:
So, could some of our brilliant astrophysicists do a quick back of napkin projection of when my house will burst into flames?
Not enough data. When does your homeowner's insurance run out?
 
1 in 3200 is way too much for my liking. We all know Evo is magnetic.
 
Jimmy Snyder said:
Not enough data. When does your homeowner's insurance run out?
In an apartment and don't have renter's insurance.
 
Borek said:
1 in 3200 is way too much for my liking. We all know Evo is magnetic.
And look at the trajectory! Canada to S. America, look where Kansas is!
 
Hey, I'm free this weekend...who would like for me to visit them for the weekend? :smile:
 
Evo said:
In an apartment and don't have renter's insurance.
3200 to 1.
 
Evo said:
Hey, I'm free this weekend...who would like for me to visit them for the weekend? :smile:
Darn! I'm booked! I have to sort my button collection.
 
Evo said:
Hey, I'm free this weekend...who would like for me to visit them for the weekend? :smile:

I would, but I live with my parents and we don't have a spare room. Maybe you can go visit Lisa and meet me on the way?
 
turbo said:
Darn! I'm booked! I have to sort my button collection.
I'll be alphabetizing my m&ms
 
Evo said:
Oooh, I'll bet Greg will be home.
Greg is never home. He'll probably be hiding out in tierra del fuego.
 
Evo said:
http://news.yahoo.com/fema-prepares...NidXNpbmVzcwRwdANzdG9yeXBhZ2UEdGVzdAM-;_ylv=3
From the article:
While the satellite’s exact trajectory is still uncertain, anyone in the vicinity of UARS’ return to Earth’s atmosphere will be privy to an impressive light show — and be subject to a 1-in-3200 chance of getting hit by debris, according to NASA.​

The 1/3200 chance is a bit misleading. It is not the probability you will be hit. It is the probability that at least one person somewhere on the face of planet will be hit by debris given 100% uncertainty in when it will come down. The chances that a specific individual will being hit are about 1/3200/7 billion. The satellite, with an orbital inclination of 56.7 degrees, swings over almost all major cities on the planet. As of now, the strike zone apparently still covers pretty much everything between -57 and +57 degrees latitude.

This strike zone will shrink dramatically over the next few days. For all those who remain in it, or remain close to Evo (same thing, thanks to the Evo effect), the probability will rise dramatically. For the vast majority of us, the probability will drop to exactly zero.
 
D H said:
From the article:
While the satellite’s exact trajectory is still uncertain, anyone in the vicinity of UARS’ return to Earth’s atmosphere will be privy to an impressive light show — and be subject to a 1-in-3200 chance of getting hit by debris, according to NASA.​

The 1/3200 chance is a bit misleading. It is not the probability you will be hit. It is the probability that at least one person somewhere on the face of planet will be hit by debris given 100% uncertainty in when it will come down. The chances that a specific individual will being hit are about 1/3200/7 billion. The satellite, with an orbital inclination of 56.7 degrees, swings over almost all major cities on the planet. As of now, the strike zone apparently still covers pretty much everything between -57 and +57 degrees latitude.

This strike zone will shrink dramatically over the next few days. For all those who remain in it, or remain close to Evo (same thing, thanks to the Evo effect), the probability will rise dramatically. For the vast majority of us, the probability will drop to exactly zero.
:smile:

Wait, what am I rofling about, the Evo Effect is a proven effect.
 
Bye evo!
 
Evo said:
:smile:

Wait, what am I rofling about, the Evo Effect is a proven effect.

It would be best for humanity for you to relocate to the middle of the Pacific till it comes down.
 
Evo, relax! The 1/3200 is only for people on the ground. Just don't be on the ground when it hits and you will be fine.

I'd suggest a trampoline, but you might break your ankle...

Lets all send her helium get well balloons!
 
I was thinking of avoiding the swimming pool as another article predicted that there was a greater chance for the satellite to hit large bodies in water.

Oh wait, that's large bodies of water...nevermind.
 
Ms Music said:
Evo, relax! The 1/3200 is only for people on the ground. Just don't be on the ground when it hits and you will be fine.

I'd suggest a trampoline, but you might break your ankle...

Lets all send her helium get well balloons!
Don't stop there. If we get her in orbit around the moon that debris will become really confused!
 
Ms Music said:
Evo, relax! The 1/3200 is only for people on the ground. Just don't be on the ground when it hits and you will be fine.

I'd suggest a trampoline, but you might break your ankle...

Lets all send her helium get well balloons!

zoobyshoe said:
Don't stop there. If we get her in orbit around the moon that debris will become really confused!
Please don't send me up without oxygen.
 
Last edited:
Evo said:
Please don't send me up without oxygen.
Oh, sure! Now you demand amenities! Another spoiled member of the privileged class demanding special treatment.
 
I was living in Phila. when Skylab fell from the sky. It landed in the ocean off of Perth Australia, quite literally the antipode of Phila. I think Kansas is the antipode of Northern South Jersey.