DUARS Satellite Re-Entry: Impressive Light Show & Potential Debris Threat

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the imminent re-entry of the UARS satellite into Earth's atmosphere, focusing on the potential light show it may create and the associated risks of debris hitting individuals on the ground. Participants explore the implications of the satellite's trajectory, the statistical likelihood of debris impact, and share humorous takes on the situation.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification
  • Humorous

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that the UARS satellite is expected to re-enter the atmosphere sooner than previously predicted, creating a potential light show.
  • There is a reported 1-in-3200 chance of debris hitting someone, with some participants expressing concern over this probability.
  • A participant suggests that the 1-in-3200 figure is misleading, clarifying that it refers to the likelihood of at least one person being hit globally, not an individual.
  • Humorous suggestions are made regarding protective measures, such as using a steel umbrella or relocating to avoid debris.
  • Several participants joke about the "Evo effect," implying that the presence of a specific member may attract the satellite's debris.
  • There are discussions about the trajectory of the satellite and its potential impact zone, with references to its path over major cities.
  • Some participants share personal anecdotes related to past satellite re-entries, adding a historical context to the discussion.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a mix of concern and humor regarding the potential debris threat, with no consensus on the seriousness of the risk or the best course of action. The discussion remains light-hearted, with competing views on the implications of the satellite's re-entry.

Contextual Notes

The discussion includes varying interpretations of the statistical data regarding debris impact probability, and some participants highlight the uncertainty surrounding the satellite's exact trajectory.

Who May Find This Useful

Individuals interested in space, satellite re-entries, and the associated risks, as well as those who enjoy humorous takes on scientific events.

  • #61
jambaugh said:
That's a 1 in 3200 chance that someone somewhere in the world will be hit by the debris.
Now take that fraction and divide by the world population. Not quite so scarey.
Well, if you are one of the lucky ones to see the debris fall, your chances of being hit are 1 in 3,200. So, I plan to gather 3,200 other people and I'll be the 3,201st, therefor...SAFE!.
 
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  • #62
Don't... you... ever... make a thread with that title ever again... :mad:
 
  • #63
micromass said:
Don't... you... ever... make a thread with that title ever again... :mad:
really sorry

So 2 hours notice if you are in the fallout area. They said it could happen Friday morning. Give or take a day. Who's going to watch for the alert?

Om, Char and lisab need not worry, the debris will go right over them and make a beeline for me. Unfortunately, dlgoff lives near me...
 
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  • #64
Evo said:
Well, if you are one of the lucky ones to see the debris fall, your chances of being hit are 1 in 3,200. So, I plan to gather 3,200 other people and I'll be the 3,201st, therefor...SAFE!.
I feel much better now. Thanks Evo. :!)
 
  • #65
Evo said:
really sorry

So 2 hours notice if you are in the fallout area. They said it could happen Friday morning. Give or take a day. Who's going to watch for the alert?

Om, Char and lisab need not worry, the debris will go right over them and make a beeline for me. Unfortunately, dlgoff lives near me...


No! What of Roger and Mabel?!

Find a mountain! Quickly!
 
  • #66
...the expected landing zone covers around 500 miles stretching from Northern Canada to the southern end of South America.
I was away for two weeks.

Did the Earth shrink dramatically while I was gone??



P.S. Anyone have a map of the proposed impact ellipse?
 
  • #67

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  • #68
Lol, Evo on friday:
evoonfriday.jpg


Taken from the attachment.
 

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  • #69
Engineers have quietly said in the past that falling space junk is more of a public relations problem than an actual threat. We think of ourselves as living on a crowded planet, they say, but it's perhaps surprising how much elbow room there is.
See, it's only a public relations problem rather than an actual threat, i.e., it's not like congress. :biggrin:
 
  • #70
KrisOhn said:
Lol, Evo on friday:
evoonfriday.jpg


Taken from the attachment.
I like that! That really captures Evo.
 
  • #71
krisohn said:
lol, evo on friday:
taken from the attachment.
lol!
 
  • #72
Astronuc said:
See, it's only a public relations problem rather than an actual threat, i.e., it's not like congress. :biggrin:
Small comfort when that public relations problem knocks down your front door during dinner time.
 
  • #73
Astronuc said:
See, it's only a public relations problem rather than an actual threat, i.e., it's not like congress. :biggrin:
Funny. When Sky Lab was on its way to reentry, my NASA engineer friend called from Huston and since I live in Kansas I should duck.
 
  • #74
KrisOhn said:
Lol, Evo on friday:
evoonfriday.jpg


Taken from the attachment.

That's her PF ban-bat. :biggrin:
 
  • #75
Astronuc said:
I like that! That really captures Evo.

Hahaha, right before she swings, misses and hits herself in the ankle.
 
  • #76
KrisOhn said:
Hahaha, right before she swings, misses and hits herself in the ankle.
Buwahahah!

So true. :blushing:
 
  • #77
iin100ts.jpg
 
  • #78
Did anyone else catch in the one video where they said that most of the satellite would burn up when it enters the "Fiery ring the surrounds the Earth"? :rolleyes:
 
  • #79
Janus said:
Did anyone else catch in the one video where they said that most of the satellite would burn up when it enters the "Fiery ring the surrounds the Earth"? :rolleyes:
LOL! NO! Was that the ABC video I posted?

I wonder how long before this becomes a new doomsday scenario on the internet? Perhaps the short time frame isn't worth the effort.
 
  • #80
  • #81
Janus said:
Just to make you feel better. The line they show is for its present orbit at the time. It completes 1 orbit every 96 min, so by the next pass, the Earth would have turned some 24 degrees to the East. In other words, each orbit is shifted over with respect to the Earth and wouldn't pass over you.
Where will it be by this weekend? They're saying between Canada and the southern tip of south America. Is that wrong? (wouldn't be surprised).
 
  • #82
Evo said:
Where will it be by this weekend?

Back in Kansas.
 
  • #83
micromass said:
Back in Kansas.
Oh NO! Now they're saying it might hit Europe!
 
  • #84
Evo said:
Oh NO! Now they're saying it might hit Europe!

How do you say "rut roh" in French?
 
  • #85
Evo said:
Oh NO! Now they're saying it might hit Europe!

Yeey, great fun! :biggrin:
 
  • #86
lisab said:
How do you say "rut roh" in French?

"Le ras reaux"
 
  • #87
QuarkCharmer said:
"Le ras reaux"
:biggrin:
 
  • #88
Evo said:
Where will it be by this weekend? They're saying between Canada and the southern tip of south America. Is that wrong? (wouldn't be surprised).

It's hard to say. Every 96 min. the Earth rotates 24°, so at a latitude of say 45°, that works out to a ~1900 km shift per orbit. So you would have to pin the time down pretty tightly to get a position.

Here's the real time track for the satellite:

http://www.n2yo.com/?s=21701

As I post it is just about to cross the Equator in the Pacific.
 
  • #89
Janus said:
It's hard to say. Every 96 min. the Earth rotates 24°, so at a latitude of say 45°, that works out to a ~1900 km shift per orbit. So you would have to pin the time down pretty tightly to get a position.

Here's the real time track for the satellite:

http://www.n2yo.com/?s=21701

As I post it is just about to cross the Equator in the Pacific.
Oooh! Look at it go!
 
  • #90
The satellite appears to have an orbit that constantly changes??

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

It looks like they moved it up to friday 20hrs +or-

Spread out don't gather in groups. Stay low to the gound and maintain complete silence Or just relax and have a beer. :zzz:

Edit:

Here is a NASA update site (like they really know?)

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html