DUARS Satellite Re-Entry: Impressive Light Show & Potential Debris Threat

AI Thread Summary
The UARS satellite is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere this weekend, moving faster than initially predicted. NASA estimates a 1-in-3200 chance of debris hitting someone on the ground, although this statistic is misleading as it reflects the likelihood of at least one person being hit globally. The satellite's trajectory covers a wide area, but the strike zone will narrow as the re-entry date approaches. Discussions among forum members include humorous suggestions for safety and the potential for an impressive light show during the satellite's descent. Overall, while the risk exists, the probability of any specific individual being struck remains extremely low.
  • #101
BobG said:
Edit: I can't believe it! It passes over Evo several times over the next few days, while it just barely gets over the horizon in Colorado Springs! I don't get a single decent pass! How unlucky can a person get?
YAY EVO!

I could be there tomorrow Bob, you're not that far from me, if I drive fast! Then we can watch it together!
 
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  • #102
Evo said:
YAY EVO!

I could be there tomorrow Bob, you're not that far from me, if I drive fast! Then we can watch it together!

You should. You'd like my house. The stairs are carpeted so it doesn't hurt as bad when you trip on them.
 
  • #103
I'll pour alcohol over your grave and bring flowers occasionally
 
  • #104
Evo said:
YAY EVO!

I could be there tomorrow Bob, you're not that far from me, if I drive fast! Then we can watch it together!

Your not in the clear yet some pretty big pieces will be coming down. NASA did the Re-entry risk assement in 2002??:eek:

Click on Re-entry risk assesment in the link below. Page 7. They have a lot of interesting data.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html
 
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  • #105
BobG said:
You should. You'd like my house. The stairs are carpeted so it doesn't hurt as bad when you trip on them.
Oh that's ok, when I fall downstairs, I bounce into the air, flip over facing the ceiling, and remain airborne, headfirst, until my skull stops my fall by smashing into the hard floor at the bottom.

None of that lame tumbling downstairs.
 
  • #107
Evo said:
Where will it be by this weekend? They're saying between Canada and the southern tip of south America. Is that wrong? (wouldn't be surprised).
Update: they've narrowed it down to somewhere between the North Pole and Antarctica.
 
  • #108
One way or another Evo, you'll be missed.
 
  • #109
Jimmy Snyder said:
One way or another Evo, you'll be missed.

...ah, Jimmy...:smile:
 
  • #110
Jimmy Snyder said:
One way or another Evo, you'll be missed.

:smile:

Hahahaha
 
  • #111
Rofl
 
  • #112
Jimmy Snyder said:
One way or another Evo, you'll be missed.
That's even better than "Cheer up, Harold (Camping). It's not the end of the world"
 
  • #114
Well, it's cooler than being eaten by mountain lions!:wink:
 
  • #115
Lisa! said:
Well, it's cooler than being eaten by mountain lions!:wink:
I don't know about that! Being eaten by a mountain lion in the rugged terrain of Mount Sunflower would be pretty cool.
 
  • #116
turbo said:
I don't know about that! Being eaten by a mountain lion in the rugged terrain of Mount Sunflower would be pretty cool.

I had a mountain lion eat my little brothers couch once. He still doesn't believe me.

But anyways, the latest news:

Now, in what NASA calls an “uncontrolled” re-entry — there is no more fuel to guide it — it will plop down somewhere on Friday afternoon, give or take a few hours.

In the meantime, #UARS has turned into a popular hashtag on Twitter. “I’m selling anti-satellite-debris umbrellas for $145 each,” one user wrote.

hmmm... I think it's a bit late to take up a collection for the Evo umbrella. Or does FedEx have same day service?
 
  • #117
Oh,well. I paid my share of her generous salary for many years and never got to sneak off to Bora Bora or any PF getaways for the secret brother/sisterhood. Yep! a new sub-forum with a secret handshake. It's a revolution.

Anyway, look over here (MIB flash!) Nothing to see here.
 
  • #118
Good news for Evo. Her chances of getting hit are decreasing.

On the other hand, my chances of getting hit are increasing. But the satellite would have to stay up until Sunday to pass really close to me, and that appears unlikely.

The picture shows the closest it will get to Evo (the red lines show how close it did get to Evo in the past). Time is Universal Standard Time, or about 7:20 PM 23 Sep Central Time.

Edit: Wow! I just noticed something. If it stays up until tomorrow night, my ex could get hit and I would have to stop making alimony payments.
 

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  • #119
BobG said:
Good news for Evo. Her chances of getting hit are decreasing.

On the other hand, my chances of getting hit are increasing. But the satellite would have to stay up until Sunday to pass really close to me, and that appears unlikely.

The picture shows the closest it will get to Evo (the red lines show how close it did get to Evo in the past). Time is Universal Standard Time, or about 7:20 PM 23 Sep Central Time.
It's coming for me!
 
  • #120
Opinions on the best site to go for up-to-date info as the time approaches? I keep hitting articles, none have any data or tracking apps.
 
  • #121
DaveC426913 said:
Opinions on the best site to go for up-to-date info as the time approaches? I keep hitting articles, none have any data or tracking apps.
Tracking sites are overloaded and off-line.
 
  • #122
Janus said:
It's hard to say. Every 96 min. the Earth rotates 24°, so at a latitude of say 45°, that works out to a ~1900 km shift per orbit. So you would have to pin the time down pretty tightly to get a position.

Here's the real time track for the satellite:

http://www.n2yo.com/?s=21701

As I post it is just about to cross the Equator in the Pacific.
The tracking site is down!

You people get off of my tracking site!
 
  • #123
Try Heavens Above.

http://www.heavens-above.com/

You can enter your city and find out when it will be close to you. (Just click the "all" button instead of the "visible passes only" button.)

Or, if you have some sort of program for satellite orbits - an orbit simulator or such - just enter the elsets into your program and you can compute your own tracks.
 
  • #124
BobG said:
Try Heavens Above.

http://www.heavens-above.com/

You can enter your city and find out when it will be close to you. (Just click the "all" button instead of the "visible passes only" button.)

Or, if you have some sort of program for satellite orbits - an orbit simulator or such - just enter the elsets into your program and you can compute your own tracks.

Well, I was really just looking for up-to-date info on its projected re-entry time and area.
 
  • #125
lisab said:
A 1-in-3200 chance of being hit by debris? Yikes!

You need a steel umbrella, Evo!

A concrete bunker might work better.
 
  • #126
BobG said:
Try Heavens Above.

http://www.heavens-above.com/

You can enter your city and find out when it will be close to you. (Just click the "all" button instead of the "visible passes only" button.)

Or, if you have some sort of program for satellite orbits - an orbit simulator or such - just enter the elsets into your program and you can compute your own tracks.
Thanks Bob, looks like 4:37pm if I did it right.
 
  • #127
DaveC426913 said:
Well, I was really just looking for up-to-date info on its projected re-entry time and area.

2:40PM EST, Rochester, NH... just outside my condo in my parking space.

The insurance company is never going to believe me.

[PLAIN]http://theotherplaceportal.net/files/2010/12/muffin-300x192.jpg
(Src: http://theotherplaceportal.net/blog/the-other-place/car-crushed-by-giant-blue-muffin/" )
 
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  • #128
DaveC426913 said:
Well, I was really just looking for up-to-date info on its projected re-entry time and area.

It only takes 88 minutes for it to complete an orbit. It's moving about 285 miles a minute. Given how hard it is to predict exactly when the satellite will reenter the atmosphere and the amount of time that passes before observations and an updated elset being available to public websites, those projections won't be terribly accurate. Their projections are more like the time that has the highest probability.
 
  • #129
This site gives an estimated impact range:

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
 
  • #130
Janus said:
This site gives an estimated impact range:

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
Thanks, Janus (I guess). That chart shows LOTS of tracks overlap around Maine, PQ, and the Maritimes. That adds up to a lot of hang-time.

Looks like South America gets a free pass, though.
 
  • #131
Janus said:
This site gives an estimated impact range:

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
To all,

Wouldn't be ironic and hilarious if a big chunk came down on where they located and removed Bin Laden, now THAT would make my day.

Rhody... :devil: :biggrin:
 
  • #132
BobG said:
Edit: Wow! I just noticed something. If it stays up until tomorrow night, my ex could get hit and I would have to stop making alimony payments.

Bob, she survived you for a few years. Do you think she is scared of a silly satellite hit? :wink:
 
  • #133
Don't overreact with a "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" scenario...oh...wait
 
  • #134
Now they're saying that the impact will be between 6pm and 4am EDT, over the US. If true, it should be quite a show as you run for your life. :-p
 
  • #135
Right, a bit akin to Elinin

FlexGunship said:
Yes, when it bursts into flames as it contact the upper atmosphere you should be able to see it pretty well from outside of your bomb shelter. When it hits your bomb shelter you should be able to see it pretty well from inside your bomb shelter.
 
  • #136
Just leave Evo in the bomb shelter and drive out of the impact zone right away.
 
  • #137
turbo said:
Just leave Evo in the bomb shelter and drive out of the impact zone right away.
:frown:
 
  • #139
Evo said:
it should be quite a show as you run for your life. :-p

I think not running is better - chances of being hit are identical, but you won't die sweaty.
 
  • #140
Borek said:
I think not running is better - chances of being hit are identical, but you won't die sweaty.
Or with messy hair.
 
  • #141
The moral of this story, if there is one, is don't push your luck and stay close to Evo in those last critical twenty minutes, and make sure the debris field is by you before venturing outside, only to be http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLKR3GdIK80" with something the size of a golf ball, or eye ball (see link), eck...

Rhody... :bugeye:
 
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  • #142
It looks like the impact point is Bora Bora OH NOO Mr Bill

Safety tips for Evo from from Mr Bill:

 
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  • #143
The chances that it will hit anyone is one in 3200 and since there are 7 billion people, the chance that it will hit me is one in 21 trillion. This is the first time that I've been thankful for overpopulation. Meanwhile they keep changing their minds on when and where it will fall. The next thing they say is that they no longer think it's the size of a schoolbus. The size of Texas more likely.
 
  • #144
Jimmy Snyder said:
The chances that it will hit anyone is one in 3200 and since there are 7 billion people, the chance that it will hit me is one in 21 trillion.

The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot? About 195 million to 1.

Finally found something less likely to happen than winning the lottery!

The odds of being hit by a falling satellite when you have a winning Powerball ticket in your pocket? Probably better than 50%.
 
  • #145
bobg said:
the odds of being hit by a falling satellite when you have a winning powerball ticket in your pocket? Probably better than 50%.
lol!
 
  • #146
The last link I posted now estimates re-entry over the Pacific. However, if it holds off for just 15 min more, its right on top of me!
 
  • #147
The local news reports that we may not only be able to see the fireball pass over, we may be able to hear it!

Right now they are saying to look for it passing over Oregon about 9:20 PM, Pacific Time.
 
  • #148
It's raining here - nothing to see.
 
  • #149
Ivan Seeking said:
we may not only be able to see the fireball pass over, we may be able to hear it!
Now that would be cool Ivan, what would you hear, double, triple sonic booms ?

Rhody...
 
  • #150
I doubt it will really amount to much, but I'll try to get a video and post it if I do.

Tsu is out of town and I just called to let her know. She is SOOOOOOOOOO mad that she isn't here!
 

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