The UARS satellite is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere this weekend, moving faster than initially predicted. NASA estimates a 1-in-3200 chance of debris hitting someone on the ground, although this statistic is misleading as it reflects the likelihood of at least one person being hit globally. The satellite's trajectory covers a wide area, but the strike zone will narrow as the re-entry date approaches. Discussions among forum members include humorous suggestions for safety and the potential for an impressive light show during the satellite's descent. Overall, while the risk exists, the probability of any specific individual being struck remains extremely low.
#51
ArcanaNoir
778
4
I recommend waiting it out in a ball pit at a Chuck E Cheese. Or a bouncy house. That sounds safe. Reminds me of the elementary school "egg drop" experiments. Try packing an egg and then dropping it off your roof. Which ever egg survives the greatest fall, pack yourself like that for the day.
How come no one can do the math to find out exactly when/where it will re-enter? Isn't that what math is for? Why am I studying it if it has no practical application? Does it only work in textbooks designed to torture students on false pretenses for years on end?
Unfortunately, the Evo Effect has defied all attempt at mathematical analysis.
#55
OmCheeto
Gold Member
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ArcanaNoir said:
I recommend waiting it out in a ball pit at a Chuck E Cheese. Or a bouncy house. That sounds safe. Reminds me of the elementary school "egg drop" experiments. Try packing an egg and then dropping it off your roof. Which ever egg survives the greatest fall, pack yourself like that for the day.
No! Not a mere ball pit nor bouncy house! Our beloved goddess Evo needs a mountain to shield her from this falling refuse of Armageddon! Hide behind Mt. Sunflower Evo! Run! Don't walk! Run!
#56
Jimmy Snyder
1,122
22
Remember, as all that titanium and beryllium is crashing all around you, that you can't control what happens to you, but you can control your attitude. Get out your ban gun and let it have it with both barrels. Get out your dictionary and find out what the heck beryllium is.
That's a 1 in 3200 chance that someone somewhere in the world will be hit by the debris.
Now take that fraction and divide by the world population. Not quite so scarey.
No! Not a mere ball pit nor bouncy house! Our beloved goddess Evo needs a mountain to shield her from this falling refuse of Armageddon! Hide behind Mt. Sunflower Evo! Run! Don't walk! Run!
That's a 1 in 3200 chance that someone somewhere in the world will be hit by the debris.
Now take that fraction and divide by the world population. Not quite so scarey.
Wait...
Oh never mind. We're not in the Quantum Physics forum.
#60
Evo
Staff Emeritus
24,029
3,323
dlgoff said:
OMG. If today hasn't been bad enough, I come here for some peace and find this thread. Thanks a lot Evo.
Oooops.
Janus said:
Unfortunately, the Evo Effect has defied all attempt at mathematical analysis.
OmCheeto said:
No! Not a mere ball pit nor bouncy house! Our beloved goddess Evo needs a mountain to shield her from this falling refuse of Armageddon! Hide behind Mt. Sunflower Evo! Run! Don't walk! Run!
OM, watch the video, it's coming directly over you too!
#61
Evo
Staff Emeritus
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3,323
jambaugh said:
That's a 1 in 3200 chance that someone somewhere in the world will be hit by the debris.
Now take that fraction and divide by the world population. Not quite so scarey.
Well, if you are one of the lucky ones to see the debris fall, your chances of being hit are 1 in 3,200. So, I plan to gather 3,200 other people and I'll be the 3,201st, therefor...SAFE!.
Well, if you are one of the lucky ones to see the debris fall, your chances of being hit are 1 in 3,200. So, I plan to gather 3,200 other people and I'll be the 3,201st, therefor...SAFE!.
I feel much better now. Thanks Evo. :!)
#65
OmCheeto
Gold Member
2,471
3,326
Evo said:
really sorry
So 2 hours notice if you are in the fallout area. They said it could happen Friday morning. Give or take a day. Who's going to watch for the alert?
Om, Char and lisab need not worry, the debris will go right over them and make a beeline for me. Unfortunately, dlgoff lives near me...
No! What of Roger and Mabel?!
Find a mountain! Quickly!
#66
DaveC426913
Gold Member
23,831
7,827
...the expected landing zone covers around 500 miles stretching from Northern Canada to the southern end of South America.
I was away for two weeks.
Did the Earth shrink dramatically while I was gone??
P.S. Anyone have a map of the proposed impact ellipse?
#67
Evo
Staff Emeritus
24,029
3,323
DaveC426913 said:
I was away for two weeks.
Did the Earth shrink dramatically while I was gone??
P.S. Anyone have a map of the proposed impact ellipse?
Engineers have quietly said in the past that falling space junk is more of a public relations problem than an actual threat. We think of ourselves as living on a crowded planet, they say, but it's perhaps surprising how much elbow room there is.
See, it's only a public relations problem rather than an actual threat, i.e., it's not like congress.
Did anyone else catch in the one video where they said that most of the satellite would burn up when it enters the "Fiery ring the surrounds the Earth"?
#79
Evo
Staff Emeritus
24,029
3,323
Janus said:
Did anyone else catch in the one video where they said that most of the satellite would burn up when it enters the "Fiery ring the surrounds the Earth"?
LOL! NO! Was that the ABC video I posted?
I wonder how long before this becomes a new doomsday scenario on the internet? Perhaps the short time frame isn't worth the effort.
Just to make you feel better. The line they show is for its present orbit at the time. It completes 1 orbit every 96 min, so by the next pass, the Earth would have turned some 24 degrees to the East. In other words, each orbit is shifted over with respect to the Earth and wouldn't pass over you.
#81
Evo
Staff Emeritus
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3,323
Janus said:
Just to make you feel better. The line they show is for its present orbit at the time. It completes 1 orbit every 96 min, so by the next pass, the Earth would have turned some 24 degrees to the East. In other words, each orbit is shifted over with respect to the Earth and wouldn't pass over you.
Where will it be by this weekend? They're saying between Canada and the southern tip of south America. Is that wrong? (wouldn't be surprised).
Where will it be by this weekend? They're saying between Canada and the southern tip of south America. Is that wrong? (wouldn't be surprised).
It's hard to say. Every 96 min. the Earth rotates 24°, so at a latitude of say 45°, that works out to a ~1900 km shift per orbit. So you would have to pin the time down pretty tightly to get a position.
As I post it is just about to cross the Equator in the Pacific.
#89
Evo
Staff Emeritus
24,029
3,323
Janus said:
It's hard to say. Every 96 min. the Earth rotates 24°, so at a latitude of say 45°, that works out to a ~1900 km shift per orbit. So you would have to pin the time down pretty tightly to get a position.
The satellite appears to have an orbit that constantly changes??
That's due to the objects interaction with the Earth's incandesosphere slice. It's a hydrocarbon evolving collection of dense particulates forming an annular ring with concentric and uniform photonic properties that is localized around the gravitational maxima of the Earth's field. It produces orthogonal waves that can interact with the orbits of some objects. Johnny Cash once wrote a song about it.
#92
Andre
4,310
73
QuarkCharmer said:
That's due to the objects interaction with the Earth's incandesosphere slice. It's a hydrocarbon evolving collection of dense particulates forming an annular ring with concentric and uniform photonic properties that is localized around the gravitational maxima of the Earth's field. It produces orthogonal waves that can interact with the orbits of some objects. Johnny Cash once wrote a song about it.
Anyway wouldn't it be logical if the thing crashed close to the equator? Firstly it should have the strongest gravitational pull there due to the equatorial bulge, but probably more importantly, if the orbit height is in reference to the centre of the earth, the atmosphere is up to some km higher than at higher lattitudes.
Edit, obviously this would only be true in case of a circular orbit, not with an elliptic orbit.
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#93
ArcanaNoir
778
4
Aren't there lots of old missile silos in the midwest? Maybe that would be a safe place to hide.
#94
rhody
Gold Member
679
3
So, is it safe to say, when the little satellite is no longer tracking we will know it by the real time updates of the orbit track ? Let's hope the blip doesn't go blank over Evo's home state.
That's due to the objects interaction with the Earth's incandesosphere slice. It's a hydrocarbon evolving collection of dense particulates forming an annular ring with concentric and uniform photonic properties that is localized around the gravitational maxima of the Earth's field. It produces orthogonal waves that can interact with the orbits of some objects. Johnny Cash once wrote a song about it.
That is funny But it does have a constantly changing orbit.
http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
#98
QuarkCharmer
1,049
3
edward said:
That is funny But it does have a constantly changing orbit.
http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
I was just playing off the news anchors "it will burn up in the fiery ring that surrounds the earth" commend from some posts above.
Keep in mind that the duration is so short because I limited the elevation in order to only list the passes that have a reasonable chance of hitting you; not just any pass that might be barely visible on the horizon. Still, the longer the duration, the closer the satellite comes. The one tomorrow morning comes almost right overhead. If I were you, I'd get up early so I could duck.
If you're lucky, the UARS will hit you on the 23rd. The location of the satellite will be just right for the Sun to reflect off of it and you'll be able to see it coming. It could be a sight you'll remember for the rest of your life.
Well, unless instead of killing you, it just causes amnesia from a severe blow to the head, in which case, you wouldn't remember the sight at all.
Of course, also keep in mind the orbit is constantly changing and that this projection is based on an SGP4 propagation, which is too generic to be very accurate. As Edward mentioned, the orbit is constantly changing because the satellite is reaching the denser parts of the atmosphere (made even densor by the fact that we're in solar max). Not only is the orbit getting smaller and smaller, but the rate at which the orbit is getting smaller is increasing.
The higher precision propagation didn't go very well. It wouldn't propagate past today. But that just means the orbit is changing too fast to predict the orbit. It's definitely coming down soon, though.
Edit: I can't believe it! It passes over Evo several times over the next few days, while it just barely gets over the horizon in Colorado Springs! I don't get a single decent pass! How unlucky can a person get?
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#100
rhody
Gold Member
679
3
I say the "Bye Bye Evo" thread caused the PF outage all day today, what say the membership at large ??!
But it does have a constantly changing orbit.
